Good start to the meeting with our “long-shot consideration” selections. Through the first 7 days of the Dmr meeting we have suggested you consider 9 horses as price plays and 2 of them have won paying $43.40 & $43.80 respectively. Click on AP Million logo to the right for details about our next special publication. Scroll down to see highlights of 2015 AP Million day.

The Racing Digest is now available for Wednesday.

22 July 16:    After any scratches:   1st race Place Pick 8 was top, 2nd, top, 2nd, top, top, top, top pick for $2,822.00. 1st race pick 3 all 2nd choices for $97.80. 1st race exacta 2nd pick, top pick $23.80 (Q $16.60). 3rd race 2nd pick, top pick exacta $15.40. 5th race pick 4 hit ICE COLD $130.80. (that's 64 to 1 ) 7th race top pick, 3rd pick exacta $38.00. 7th race trifecta hit COLD $17.20. 

15 July 16:   Decent start to the Del Mar summer meet   After any scratches:  1st race pick 5 was 3rd, top, 3rd, top, 2nd pick for $7,737.60.  1st race 3rd pick, top pick exacta $72.60. 1st race pick 3 was 3rd, top, 3rd pick $659.60. 2nd race exacta was top pick, 3rd pick $54.40. 4th race top pick, 3rd pick exacta $26.80. 7th race 2nd choice, 3rd choice double paid $179.20.

542 races covered at the 2016 winter/spring Santa Anita meeting. Using a $2 base the cost if you wagered on our top choice each and every race would be $1084. The return $1175. That is a 8.4% profit. My guess is most of our competition wasn't even profitable with their "best bet" or "best bets" or "fair value plays". That is the 4th meeting over the last 4 1/2 years that playing our top selection each and every race turned a profit of 8.4 or higher. And the other 3 were 14% or higher but shorter meetings like Del Mar. (see below)

2014 Del Mar Meeting (late Fall):   122 races run at Del Mar. Using a $2 base the cost if you wagered on our top choice each and every race would be $244. The return $281.20. That is a 15% profit. My guess is most of our competition wasn't even profitable with their "best bet" or "best bets" or "fair value plays". That is the 3rd meeting over the last 3 1/2 years that playing our top selection each and every race turned a profit of 14% or higher.

15 Aug 15 Special pub. for Arlington Park:  After any scratches: 1st race pick 3 was 3rd, 3rd, 4th pick $266.40. 4th race double hit COLD $10.00. Nice 7th race returns: 7th race exacta hit COLD $60.40. 7th race pick 3 was top, 4th, 4th pick $1,203.40. 7th race pick 4 was top, 4th, 4th, 4th pick $6,696.20. 7th race superfecta box of 4 given picks $560.20. 9th race pick 3 was 4th, 4th, 2nd pick for $2,946.20. 10th race trifecta box of top 5 picks $1,135.40. 11th race trifecta box of top 3 picks $216.00. I am a Midwest boy and it was great to play back at home even though I have to say I do love Southern Cal racing!

 

Posted on December 18, 2013 at 5:24 pm by brian · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Uncategorized

Del Mar for Sunday 24 July 2016

What a difficult card to decipher. Do I small double carry-over for Wednesday.We shall see.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    below average clarity

5  Back Beauty   the only time Bonde risked losing this filly in a claiming race she ran her best ever and the effort is hidden by a bad trip......that was for 40K......up for 25K today and with a rider upgrade

4  Aiming Straight   decent layoff effort in latest......fits well if she builds off of the effort.....seems best at today's 5 1/2 panels

1  Ryderroo   SCRATCHED

7  Nazareth

 

race 2    below average clarity

3  Singing Kitty   poor journey in latest as Bejarano tried the overland route thru-out the race.......in fact this filly has many bad trips in her history that hide her ability........small field.......a good post...... and..... Mr Bejarano out to make amends.....good trip seems likely today

2  Fanticola   best at one mile on the grass (6 3 1 2) and her race 2 back at the distance is very strong and somewhat disguised......Talamo is off to a dismal start at the meeting but he sure is familiar with this D'Amata runner as this is the 8th straight mount on her

1  Avenge   R Mandella is at his most dangerous 3rd out following layoffs (13 for his last 40 with another 16 2nd or 3rd)....that is the case today......sprint-sprint-route set up.......gets Prat back who is 2 for 4 on this filly

 

race 3    below average clarity

6  Above Board   laid up Baffert colt was a disappointment last Fall but drops and is training as if he is meant and ready to return some dividends and cut into the red ink

2  Ideal   SCRATCHED

1  Atypique   claimed by the red-hot Diodoro in late May.....off since.....returns as a 1st time gelding and with the blinkers on for the 1st time......and runs on the dirt for the 1st time with an excellent pedigree for it

7  Specimen  

Long-shot consideration:   3  Wild Mischief    trainer has run this one into shape and appears to be in decent shape now......good chance to sit mid pack and put in a good stretch run......rider seldom wins at the major S Cal racetracks but he sure helps the odds

 

race 4    average clarity

5  Hard Aces   smart scratch yesterday as he was looking at a Grade 2 that came up ridiculously strong......faces much easier here......acts like 12 furlongs is within his reach

6  Quick Casablanca   mostly competes on the sod but she has earned $287K on the dirt and only missed the board once .........comes from far back so the small field should help her pick an opening

2  Energia   six-year-old mare can run all day on the grass but what can she do on the dirt......gets enough of a weight break that if she takes to the dirt she likely fits.....doesn't seem to own the best pedigree for it

 

race 5    average clarity

3  Mystic Kid   poor trip in MSW debut.....showed life.....might have been a gimme anyway....switch from Smith to go to guy Baze for Diodoro........good route and grass pedigree.....trainer is hot

4  Bourque   3 to 5 in debut and ran 2nd.....then.....8 to 1 in 2nd out and ran up the track....maybe word was out it was a public work-out? ...... O'Neill is solid in these early 2 yr old grass route races........rebound city

2  Beantown Boys   double barrel action for O'Neill.....useful debut......Gutt takes the 2nd pick.......Raffy lands here......such a deal......mom has tossed 2 grass winners

5  Super Echelon

 

race 6    below average clarity

1  Justonemorething   key race 2 back.....then ran quite strong vs. better......and he received too wide of a trip for a 5F affair......trainer/rider have been very live in their last 4 starts as team.....believe that continues today

9  Incline Village   only seems to fire these days with ample time between starts.....gets that today and drops significantly.....been a long time since Koriner has "fired on all cylinders" but be is right now

5  Coyote Fly   3 of the last 4 efforts fit well for this 4-year-old colt......I like when Sherman drops below where he claims a horse....that is the case here......and the aging nice guy trainer owes Elliot a live horse as they are 0 for their last 8 on the board

10  I B Mike

Long-shot consideration:   7  Allovertwistabout   undefeated in 3 lifetime sprints albeit at Boise......but if any Idaho bred is ever going to compete in any S Cal race it would be in an abbreviated sprint of 5 1/2F or less......like the 58:4 this fellow ran at 2 in his Boi debut in 2014

 

race 7    below average clarity

3  It Behooves Me   not much on the sod but he did run his best ever on the lawn in latest.......and it appears to have muscled him up as his works since are strong especially his last a best of 105 bullet 4F work......best ever turf last......better on the dirt.......adds up to him producing one of his best dirt races ever this afternoon

9  Alex Rossi   gimme in his last to drop and go go go this afternoon......and he best go go early to clear all or most by turn one....showed tremendous early speed in a dirt route last Fall at Dmr

5  Dream Team   very suspicious drop and definitely not the kind you would want to claim.... but....Baffert often gets an effort or two out of these kind before they go bad

1  Midnight Destiny

 

race 8    average clarity

7  Poshsky   just fired his lifetime best (and better than par for today's level) on the grass....that race was at Santa Anita and I believe he is even better on the Dmr turf....rider/trainer are 4 for their last 8 as a combo

5  Alert Bay   unreal consistency and I actually have him slightly better in his last whereshe lost to our top choice.....2nd only because his only race on the Del Mar turf wasn't so hot

2  Ambitious Brew   best down the SA hill but he can route as well just not as dangerous.......one for one for Prat.....good post and tactical speed.....should get a good trip

8  Soi Phet

 

race 9    below average clarity

8  Surf Shack   tepid top choice shows hints of some early speed and appears to have enough furlongs put in to be ready for his MSW debut.....Desormeaux often gives them a race but I don't believe that is the case here

6  Farley    O'Neill has three in here and I like this 1st timer the best as he is being trained very aggressively over at LA with less notice by the clockers and other watchful eyes

1  Orejas   just bought in March so the connections had an idea of what they were getting......not much of a trainer with MSW 1sters but this one sure appears ready and draws Prat

4  Blue Anzul   SCRATCHED

Long-shot consideration:   5  Midnight Pleasure   you seldom will see a $310K purchase just bought in April and training well go off at a big price but you likely will here.......reason......"no name" connections

 

race 10    average clarity

1  Street Moxie    love when Palma claims and shows big drills.......that is the case and then some here.....and look who he gets to ride......only needs a little more than his last and he is likely to provide it

6  Zinvor   trainer shows signs of awakening ......4 yr old gelding is consistent and especially so at today's one mile turf distance......and he is 1 for 1 at Del Mar on the grass

4  Lucky J Lane   claimed by Ellis way back in mid May and he appears to have his near shooter all cranked up and ready and places him at a distance where he is 4 for 7 lifetime on the sod

12  Image of Joplin

3  Professor Burns

10  Tribal Tribute

Posted on July 24, 2016 at 11:08 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Del Mar for Thursday 21 July 2016

Card seems decent but 5 of the 8 races are for the females and that usually makes things a little less form-full. We shall see. 

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

4  Far Out Kailee   last fits but his best to date was at Dmr and at today's distance was with the blinkers off.......they are taken off today.......last win was last time up for a tag........and up for a tag today.......seems well meant today

3  Gunslinger   best dirt race to date was run turf to dirt.....that is the case today.......seems loose in this spot which would be nice but he is capable of running from off of the pace some if there ends up being a surprise leader

6  Sweet Shop   1st ever on the dirt which was run at Otp wasn't bad.......but.......he likely will need to build on the effort to take home the top prize this afternoon

 

race 2    average clarity

6  Pico Chick   solid race 2 back at SA at today's same level.......and 1 for 1 at Del Mar breaking her maiden by 9L.....sharp recent drill at Dmr......hmmmm.........seems poised for a big effort

1  Star of Munster   speed of the speed and sure does well when she manages to find the front end.....but......she will need to be pushed hard early from the one post.......right guy in Baze to get that accomplished

4  Gypsy's Rule   claimed by Art Sherman and he wisely retains Desormeaux.......last at SA is decent but appears that her favorite surface is the Del Mar......should move forward on it today

3  Where's the D

 

race 3    average clarity

7  Neveradoubt   nice layoff run and the connections wisely retains Pratt......1 for 1 at the distance......0 for 3 at other turf distances......1 1/8th is a plus for him and it won't be for many in the claiming affair

1  Tattenham   back on firm turf following a race that the turf was not firm (gd or yl) and a positive rider switch to the trainer's go to guy in Desormeaux......trainer is decent 2nd out following a claim which is the case here

3  Te Rapa   highly likely to get a ground saving up close position in what seemingly will be a semi-soft set of fractions.....if so his chances will be enhanced at getting the 9 furlongs which hasn't been a good distance for him in the past ( 1 for 9)

2  Mr. T Bird

 

race 4    below average clarity

2  Broken Marriage   1ster put in copious furlongs of a.m. work out-of-town and then worked decent 5F gate drill at Dmr especially considering this is a low-level two-year old maiden claimer.......trainer used to be very dangerous with these kind but it was quite a few years ago

8  Tammy's Window   ran a horrid race/figure considering she went off at 1 to 2 in her debut which was at MC75K.......that race though might fit OK here at the MC32k level

9  Kylie Informed   the "other" O'Neill runner as he also trains our 2nd choice......two year old filly 1st timer like our top selection has a prolonged work tab......should be fit and might surprise here

5  Furious Fire

 

race 5    average clarity

7  Shehastheritestuff   last is better than appears to some....sat close to a stout set of fractions and checked some on the 2nd turn.....should be able to clear many by the 1st turn.....nice preparatory a.m. work.....seems poised for her lifetime best

6  Californiasunshine   on the right end of the learning curve.....only grass race was a key race.......does lose Prat to our 4th pick but Mr Bejarano will do.....trainer is decent dirt to turf

5  X S Heat   bad trip in her MSW debut hides an OK effort especially considering the difficult proposition of handling a turf route in ones debut.....and she had no support at the windows hinting the effort was a tune-up.....not a tune-up today

3  Warm Endowment

 

race 6    average clarity

2  Plastered   Gary Stevens rode this filly in Ky at Kee and CD and he is up for 1st time with Baltas as the trainer this afternoon.....and Baltas/Stevens aren't exactly a team....... nice a.m. work in California ..........if ever there was a well intended "ship and win" type for the added money it is here

3  Trinitys Turn   one horse trainer in Ivory sure has done a nice job keeping his only runner on the track as this is her 9th start of 2016 and she is coming off two of her very best races......and the horse she beat to break her maiden just came back to win by 9L in stellar time as our top choice yesterday

4  Chalking It Up   three-year old filly won sprint to route two back.....protected in a route race in latest.....sprint today 2nd out following the Pender claim......hmmmm

7  Marell Street

 

race 7    average clarity

9  Queenofhercastle   monster rider upgrade today......2nd out after a layoff......might be up for her "A game" and lookout if she is as she is capable of popping a big number that would make her very tough here

6  Summer Lady   nice history running in turf routes on firm rated sod ( 3 1 2 0).......good turf rider and should by forwardly placed saving ground.....1st on the Del Mar turf is a ? mark

2  Lynne's Legacy   consistent sort for Cassidy and friends ran a close 3rd to two runners who won their next out in her lone grass race at Dmr.....dangerous three year old filly for sure

7  Mai Tai

 

race 8    average clarity

2  Magic Taste   last two sprints fit solidly and then some .......and ........the effort 2 back at today's 5 1/2 furlongs is well disguised.....trainer has awoken from the doldrums the last couple of months

6  Big Bad Jon   Bruce Headley knows how to get the job done with MC 1st timers and I'm about 80% certain he has this fellow all cranked up and ready to roll for his debut into the wonderful world of thoroughbred racing

5  Gambler's Wish   4 lousy lifetime races......one good lifetime race.......away since Jan but working bullets as if he should be in a MSW race.........trainer has been in a prolonged multi-year slump so it is hard to count on him.......but.......man his a.m. is stout for this lowly level

7  Five Star Jack

8  Batkid

1  Speedin With Eddie

 

Posted on July 21, 2016 at 10:50 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Del Mar for Wednesday 20 July 2016

OK card this afternoon. Let's call it a 6 on the 1 to 10 scale of things. 

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

5  Zealous Tale   bet to favorite in debut but a bad trip by Talamo cost him the win.....broke 4 slow and ran wide......very deserving of step up of a notch.......rider is 0 for his last 7 for his father-in-law Ron Ellis.....ah.......the pressure

7  Agronomy   improved since the blinkers were taken off..........should be able to sit on or near the lead in what likely shapes up as a reasonably paced affair

4  Dreamy Martini   good race down the hill......but not much routing on the sod......and 5F on the grass seems to be too short of a distance for him.....what's left? dirt.....so logically drops for his 1st ever on "fast" rated dirt

6  Marvelous Man

 

race 2    below average clarity

6  Smooth Talker   vastly improved works since Pender claimed 3 June.....believe he has discovered the trump card for this mare.....that and the fact she appreciates the Dmr dirt make her top choice

7  Senza Fina   diminishing 5-year-old mare did move forward in last 2nd out after a layoff ....and now drosp multiple claiming levels where his latest run sure fits.......the last couple of years Glatt has been very dangerous when he makes such a radical move.....25% win over his last two dozen

8  Papaslilprincess   too flat late in her last two races both at 7 furlongs.....cut back of one furlong today should give her a fighting chance when push comes to shove late.....and there are some signs she prefers the Dmr dirt over the SA dirt 

1  Sweet Profit

 

race 3    above average clarity

7  Marriedtoaminister   on the improve and her latest is very strong running wide on both turns of a one mile affair at SA and doing so battling for the lead......that race sure appears strong here and the cut back to 7F appears to be a plus

6  Stylistic   drops multiple maiden claiming levels and appears to have enough early speed to sit on or near the lead in a race that is likely to yield a reasonable set of fractions

9  Journeytothestars    takes a logical drop (of multiple MC levels to the bottom MC level) as she only went for chump change at sale......nice improved recent 5F work......seemingly fits vs. these

5  Tanager 

 

race 4    below average clarity

2  Spicy Blonde   must be give away day for Glatt and company as this is his 2nd multi claiming level drop down of the day.....this last out winner is the more suspicious of the two but Glatt has won 2 of his last 4 dropping off a win

6  Dancing Sunset    seems best competing outside of SA including Del Mar where she fired one of her best ever efforts in her lone race on the Dmr dirt.......and the cut back in distance for today should be a plus

8  Golden Bayers   moved forward in her 2nd out following a layoff and if she is up for another move in the desired direction she should fit here.......1 for 1 at Dmr and changes riders (and definitely a rider upgrade) to the jock who was aboard on that day at Del Mar

9  Sham Holiday

Long-shot consideration:   1  Seaside Fantasy   both lifetime races at 5 1/2F fit well and one of them is disguised by a wide trip......away since 8 Jan but has been working as if she is returning fully ready......low % trainer but he has won 2 of last 10 off of extended layoffs for a positive (solid) return

 

race 5    average clarity

6  Chips All In   seven-year old is not what he once was but close when he competes in these abbreviated turf sprint races (5 3 1 1).....and he seems likely to get avery nice stalking trip

2  Fueled By Bourbon   not crazy about the dirt but just ran his top lifetime dirt race on 22 April......back to his favorite surface and as a 1st time gelding with a series of drills that say, "operation successful"

5  Kentuckian   showing signs that this race might be a public workout as he has only 3 works showing in preparation for his return to the races following a year layoff.....but.....if this is not a gimme he might crush his foes if he takes to the grass on his 1st ever on it....bred fine for it

3  Act

 

race 6    average clarity

7  Christy Jackson   both lower level lifetime races fit with a better trip than he received in both of them........and today we get a monumental rider upgrade from a struggling apprentice to K Desormeaux......how many lengths is that worth?

6  Chao Chom   solid MSW debut run in latest and the a.m. work since suggest even more will occur this afternoon.......and trainer Gary Stute has gotten his act together of late following a couple of lackluster years

8  Princess Tiznow   Puype 1st time starter has hit the track very 6 or 7 days going way back to April and with very few dull works showing......seems wound up like a top and ready to unwind

2  Tinian

 

race 7    average clarity

6  Shh She's Ours   speed of the speed here just beat one of tough lady in her latest and it was no fluke as she ran 107:3 at SA......I doubt Cassidy would bring her back in short race if she came out of the race anything other then in good shape.....1st on the Dmr surface is a ? mark

5  Lucky Folie   2 for 2 on the Del Mar dirt and Richard Mandella goes to one of his go to riders in Prat......away for 2 months but sure appears to be fit off of some solid a.m. work

2  Pretty N Cool   solid Baffert three-year old filly appears ready fresh off of the bench and she has won from the stalk position........that position might be wise in this spot as fast and as sharp as our top selection appears to be

 

race 8    average clarity

5  Buymeabond   solid efforts on the Dmr sod........handles today's 9F distance.......nice a.m. work at GG......trainer Wong is very dangerous 2nd out after layoffs......not a big fan of the rider with one exception......turf routes

2  Terrys Tom Cat   drops significantly.......handles the Del Mar grass......and I like the switch to Gutierrez who has done well on this gelding in the past.......and......recent works at GG seem vastly improved

3  Trifecta   quite consistent since the blinkers were added but he sure shows signs that he has forgotten what winning is all about....hasn't put his nose in front at any call in over a year.....today would be a good time to change his bad habit

6  Horizontalyspeakin

9  Infinite Magic

7  Madikwe

 

Posted on July 20, 2016 at 10:30 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Del Mar for Saturday 16 July 2016

Average looking card for Saturday at beautiful Del Mar. Be back with you on Sunday

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    below average clarity

4  Brother Soldier   claimed by one dangerous trainer 1st out following a claim.......like the cut back of 1/2 furlong but what really catches my eye is the significant rider upgrade  to Baze who had a nice opening day yesterday

2  Stormin Trick   Puype is good at getting back to back wins with a given horse.......and he might here with this four-year old gelding who has a shot at getting the lead ........and when he does sprinting on a fast rated track he has a record of (4 2 1 1)

1  Two Six Wins   Stevens riding a cheap horse for Pender.....seems very significant......colt needed his layoff last and popped a strong near bullet 4F drill since.....likely moving forward this afternoon

 

race 2    average clarity

2  Passionate Emotion   last race fits and is somewhat hidden.......and I actually believe the effort was a gimme following a long layoff.....if that is so she should be tough to handle today

4  Shanghai   might be a good claim by Miller of a winning 1st time starter......I like that Miller doesn't get overly ambitious with his new shooter and places her where she fits fine if she repeats her debut with a better trip

6  Sunshine Laurie   exits a key race with a win albeit 4 months ago.....but she sure is working like she is returning ready for Mulhall and company......fits fine is she is

 

race 3    average clarity

5  Home Journey   proven at Del Mar in these abbreviated grass sprints.....and appreciates ample time between starts and gets it......also gets Desormeaux who I believe is on a mission of sorts this meeting

1  Xoxo   away since July of 2015 but she is proven running fresh.....she's 2 for 2 breaking from the 1 post......she's 3 for 3 at 5 1/2F or less and that includes a 5F turf win at Dmr.......that'll do

2  She's a Big Winner   away 14+ months but Smith wants the mount and her works say she is more than ready to run only 5 panels......2 for 3 on the SA hill grass course and she was right there at the 5F mark of those 3 grass races.......a decent sign 5F will be a fit

3  Big Move

Long-shot consideration:    7  Cindy's Secret   trainer has had a very good 2016 with limited starters........5 year old mare fits 5F grass races well and seems very dangerous when she takes back some

 

race 4    average clarity

7  Look Me In The Eye   on the right end of the learning curve and is proven on the Dmr dirt.....last is better than appears in print as he was caught wide up on a solid pace and still won going away

5  Basinca   last two racing endeavor's fit and seem as good as our top choices last.....but he might not care for the Del Mar dirt as his only race on it was poor......we shall see

4  Spanish Hombre   last fits well but it was produced turf to dirt off of a bullet work.......will need to repeat the effort dirt to dirt with less impressive a.m. work leading up to today......with that said it seems like a good sign that Desormeaux signs up again

3  Midnight Edition

 

race 5    average clarity

6  Vyjack   quite the new addition for the D'A' barn and he is training lights out for D'Amato......six year old seems best at one mile and draws Prat......believe he is sitting on a big race

7  A Red Tie Day   2 for 2 at one mile on the grass ......tossed a clunker in latest but he has been training like a rebound of sorts will occur.....seems likely to get a stalk position behind a reasonable pace

2 Power Ped   finally back to a shorter grass route......connections keep running him at 1 1/8th or longer where he constantly flattens out.....( 5 2 2 1) at the distance .......(18 2 4 3) at other turf distances........it's not rocket science

 

race 6    average clarity

5  Rinse and Repeat   like his MSW debut 2 back.....didn't fare so well shipping to Otp in 2nd outing.......believe rebound will occur as O'Neill is usually very dangerous when he ships back to his home base off of a failure out of town

1  Westmont   not exactly top S Cal connections for this 1st timer but the a.m. work elsewhere and at Dmr is too good to ignore....and he sure is decently bred to be quick sprinter

9  Close to Midnight   prolonged work tab for this Lewis first time starter with a few works of merit.....and he draws Desormeaux who for the most part has been given live mounts over the last couple of months from Lewis

3  Rim Ditch

 

race 7    below average clarity

(AE 13  Free Rose  has a shot if gets in)

10  Lauren's Ladd   both lifetime grass route races are better than appear in print......blinkers back on today and cut's back in distance.......should be in the hunt from start to finish

3  All The Marbles   bet very hard in 2nd lifetime start and 1st at a turf route and did not disappoint winning despite a bad trip........likely needs a cleaner trip this afternoon to take down this affair......Smith sticks around to attempt to give one

12  Lucky Bryan   very nice pick up for Baltas and company.......three old gelding showed very significant early gas in two nice grass routes in Kentucky.....and his last race where he ran 3rd ?  1st and 2nd won their next outs

2  It's The Ice

 

race 8    average clarity

1  Champagne Room   exceptionally strong series of drills for this Eurton 1st timer starter who was just purchased in April for a cool $310K......so the connections pretty much knew what they were getting....rather sure more than ready.....training at SA so let's hope she takes to the Dmr surface

3  Noted and Quoted   Baffert and Smith are 5 for their last 8 over the last couple of months as a team and they look as if they might add to that here with this expensive recently purchased 1st timer all primed and ready to shoot for the winners circle

6  Go Baby Run   Hollendorfer has done rather well with his maidens training over at LA and shipping to the big track....and he has this two year old filly working as if she is meant and ready to rock and roll

10  La Vitesse

Long-shot consideration:  Lovely Linda   Eoin Harty might get ignored here with all the big barns signed up for this MSW baby race........his 1ster also is training like she is a runner and likely will go off somewhere between 15 to 25 to 1

 

race 9    average clarity

5  Majestic Heat   needs a little more than her last but believe she will provide it.......2nd out following a layoff and gets 7 lbs off.....in fact with 7 lbs less to carry and a 2 lengths logical forward move she should be up for a par for the level run today.....and she seems likely to get a nice stalking trip in this affair lacking speed

4  Prize Exhibit   has never run a bad race on the new Del Mar grass course but has been hurt some record wise by multiple bad trips.......lone race ever at 1 1/16th on the grass was in last year's version of this Grade 2 and was a very solid 2nd

2  Nancy From Nairobi   on the improve with almost every race since arriving to the USA from GB........and today she gets a significant rider upgrade.......would have placed her higher is she wasn't assigned as the high weight....seems a little too high in my opinion

3  Her Emmynency

 

race 10    below average clarity 

(splitting hairs with all 6 selections)

8  Song of the South   trainer Neil French has it the board (although without a win) in 3 of his last 6 maiden claiming 1st timers......works are many and fairly solid and mom has tossed 7 winners from 7 starters.....dangerous and likely at a handsome price

10  Coltonsgrace   nice move forward and that is hidden by a bad trip worth about 6L......and I like that he runs off of short rest today......if he can handle it he should run his best ever and do so with a rider upgrade

6  Bundesliga   bet hard in debut and had a bad trip but most of it caused by him.....and he was a bit goofy to say the least......so he was gelded soon after the race.....not crazy that he shows only one drill since his eventful 19 June debut or I would have placed him higher

3  Run Like That

7  That Brigade

9  Olimpio's Scat Cat

 

Posted on July 16, 2016 at 10:23 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Del Mar for Friday 15 July 2016

Don't know how many hours it took to handicap today's card but if all cards took as much time I highly doubt there would be a pub called The Racing Digest. Very difficult card to decipher as you can tell by the "clarity ratings". Many of the runners that I considered superior drew poor posts. I have to admit I would be thrilled if we end up having good results for today.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    below average clarity  

1  Hadfunlastnight   nicely improved since Papprodromou claimed 7 races back but lone win since the claim came at the today's 12.5K level........and his best was his race 2 back his lone dirt race at 8F where he ran a strong fig despite setting the pace on a dull inside.....should be in the hunt from the get go

7  Tribal Again   just snatched up by way of claim by Mulhall and company and she puts her go to guy for the last 4 or 5 months in Pedroza aboard....she also puts the blinkers on and the last time this five-year old changed equipment to "blinkers on" he won impressively

9  Accelerant   trainer has had a tough 2016 but might have a shot at his 1st win for the year following the claim of  this elder statesman (nine-year old) who has run two sharp races since returning off of a prolonged layoff

3  Successful Runner 

 

race 2    average clarity

2  I'll Be Around   tough outer 8 post hurt this youngster in her debut as she broke a little tardy and then had to stalk the lead as opposed to getting it.......faded late to 3rd losing to our 2nd choice by a head.....impressive bullet 3F work since......better post today for a 5F race.....likely on or near the lead with a cleaner break.....hot trainer/rider combo

7  Radish   small forward move in her 2nd lifetime start and a useful 4F work since......likely needs to move forward again and has the connections to accomplish the task

6  Veiled Heat   Fanning has a dismal history with 1st time starters but the works for this 2-year-old filly are too good to ignore......and mom has tossed 4 winners from 4 starters

4  Starr of Quality

 

race 3    average clarity

5  Glory Bound   both lifetime one mile grass races run in S Cal fit and the 1st one is hidden by a very wide trip.......and I like that Prat takes the mount for the very first time

10  Preacher Roe   best set of preparatory works for an Adam Kitchingman laid up runner in many a moon......five year old gelding has handled 6 different surfaces including the SA turf so I doubt running at the Del Mar will be a problem

3  Rye   two straight bad trip better than they appear races at GG.....ships south well prepared in the a.m. at GG and lures Desormeaux and draws a good post.......seems dangerous

8  Anatolian Heat

Long-shot consideration:   2  Sir Cat   laid up since Feb. but I can't remember the last time Becerra put in such a solid work series for a laid up runner.......four year old colt is proven on the Del Mar grass and sure finishes strongly at today's 1 1/16th distance

 

race 4    average clarity

3  My Samurai Warrior   strong 1st out following the Glatt claim........two reassuring works since.....same or better seem likely today.....and if that is so the step up of one level should be a piece of cake

7  Madelyn's Wild Max   19 of 23 lifetime on the board on conventional dirt and (4 2 0 2) at the distance.......seems to run well anywhere he competes......willing to drop off of a win and why not for the ship and win extra $ offered

4  Limited Response   big best of 77 4F bullet work at SA.......and a significant rider upgrade......and drops........trainer is getting serious about ending his win-less 2016

2  Nextdoorneighbor

 

race 5    average clarity

1  Moon Over Paris   all three grass races since going on Lasix fit fine here........and her latest is disguised by wide trip and an impressive turn move on the 2nd turn

11  Grandma's Hands   (5 1 2 2) in grass routes overall and improved in her last two races since Drysdale took over........3 reassuring drills since her last.....sharp and ready for best.......now she just needs a decent trip from not the easiest of posts

4  Zip N Bayou   on the right end of the learning curve and her last was impressive as she was pushed out wide on the 2nd turn and still was able to finish well.....not out of this by any means

8  Crimson And Gold

 

race 6    average clarity

1  Warren's Honey Bee   broke a couple slow and then ran 4 wide on the turn....that my friends is tough to overcome in a 5F race.......did well to salvage 3rd......see ya bug boy......hello.......Maldonado

10  Lady's Discretion   should be a factor from the opening bell......cut back in distance should help her finish better.....dangerous speed type

3  Turf Club Queen   continues to train like a happy healthy 6 year old mare who started 2016 (7 races back) off of a 3+ year layoff.........should be a factor in the race but needs to overcome her tendency to hang in the stretch

11  Tribal Cache

Long-shot consideration:   7  Madera Jubilee   woke up in latest running a closing 4th at 84 to 1 (in an 8 horse field) at 5 furlongs......might build on that effort and the added 1/2 furlong might benefit her.....as should a rider upgrade for today

 

race 7    below average clarity

3  Forest Blue   very consistent sort and seems best on the dirt.........might be set up for today's race 3rd out following an extended layoff with the sprint - sprint - route maneuver

2  Grazen Sky   not sure how fully fit this colt is off of a 4 month break put his off pace style fits this affair well with about 5 horses who might go after the lead

4  Missing Groom   last looks like an endurance building public work-out at a distance (9 furlongs) he wants no part of.......solid drills since.....and cuts back one furlong......only race on the Del Mar dirt is very solid at today's one mile distance

1  Storm Comin Thru

 

race 8    average clarity

2  Moonlight Drive   runs well fresh as this colt won by 9L in France off of a 2 month break and won first in the USA for Baffert off of a 3 month layoff by 3 1/4L.......away 5 months this time.......same rider/distance.......believe he is ready and seems the most likely in this large field to work out a good trip

9  Dressed in Hermes   plenty of talent displayed including on the Dmr grass course.........and he is 3 for 5 at today's distance........believe he can get caught a little wide and still win this.....but the emphasis is on "a little wide"

14  Liam the Charmer   for me this three year old colt owns the most ability by far but sure has been unlucky with the posts he has had to deal with......and it obviously doesn't get any better today........believe if Espinoza keeps his trip trouble at 4 lengths or less he can win this

12  Monster Bea

Long-shot consideration:  13  Mr. Roary   not that much speed in the race so you know Maldonado who has done well riding this three year old will be all out to clear all and attempt to wire.....cut back of a full furlong is a plus......as is the idea that such a large field will keep many in the field from getting the trip they need

 

race 9    below average clarity

5  Dr. Dorr   stumbled and then checked very badly about 1/2 dozen lengths in his 2nd lifetime start in a Grade 3 at Dmr.......did well to beat 1/2 the field.......been away since that Nov race but training as if he is as good as new and ready to fire fresh as he did in his MSW debut

9  Secreto Primero   nice forward move to make it two straight grass wins since returning off of a prolonged hiatus from the game.......switches to the dirt today to try to make it 3 in a row and does so off of a very impressive best of 73 bullet 5F work at SA just 5 days ago......hard not to see a solid race today if he handles his 1st ever on the conventional Dmr dirt

6  Pioneerof the West   like the rider change here......7 lbs bug boy Lindsay is a stellar 27% win in routes and has won 3 of his last 6 (with two others hitting the board) riding for Cerin

7  Westbrook

 

race 10    below average clarity  

9  Langham   expensive purchase sure is training like he can return some dividends in his MSW debut.......and he shows some hints that he has some early speed.......and if he is a good one he seemingly has caught a semi-soft looking group of MSW competitors

6  Scuderia   two nice 2nd place finishes down the hill.....retains Bejarano......and Mike McCarthy is quite strong in 3 relevant training stats that apply here........1st at a route.......1st time blinkers........3rd off of a layoff

5  Airlite   R Mandella three year old has run right behind our 2nd choice in both lifetime races which were down the majestic SA hill turf course......maybe turns the table in a turf route

2  Alley Boss

7  Jagger Swagger

8  Inhibition

 

 

Posted on July 15, 2016 at 8:44 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections