Recent Highlights & News: Sign up early for full card selections on Belmont Day June 9. Save a few dollars. Click on the Belmont logo on the right for details.
Thanks to all who purchased our special Kentucky Derby Day full card selections as more folks signed up than I anticipated. After any scratches our top selection won 7 races and ran 2nd in 4 races. My track record on Derby Day has been sensationally as long as the track is “fast”. I crushed the cards the 3 times I was live at the Derby. They were the years War Emblem won, my top pick, Funny Cide won, my top pick, and I had Giacomo as my long-shot the year he won. Baffert’s Bodemeister got beat yesterday but ran his eyeballs out and our long-shot I’ll Have Another won. If I’ll Have Another had a better post he would have been my 2nd pick. You think California has a nice crop of 3 year old’s?
Picks are up for Thursday 17 May 2012
CHURCH DOWNS SATURDAY 5 MAY 2012 SCRATCHES REMOVED
top selection won 7 races and ran second in 4 other races in a 13 race Kentucky Derby card.
race 1 exacta COLD $11.60 Double COLD $25.40 pick 3 top , top, 4th pick $480.00
2 ATIGUN solid wake up 1st time lasix…..only beat by 2 for 2nd in the Ark Derby
5 POLITICALLYCORRECT has followed up bad races with good efforts in the past…..can sit close in a race that has a lack of front running types
3 AFFORD back where fits in an alw race….should be able to save some ground and put in a nice stretch run
race 2 top pick, 4th pick, top pick pick 3 was $1,279.40
2 BIG RING nice MSW debut on the synthetic at Tup……training well since that race and the drills are at CD
1 ROCK N GLAMOUR good conditioner with 1st timers and the work regiment sure looks good….my guess is meant and ready
race 3 4th pick, top pick exacta $112.00
5 GOLDEN TICKET consistent sort and it appears he appreciates conventional dirt the most….solid rider/trainer combo
7 Z DAGER bad trip in latest versus better……back to alw racing to gain some confidence
2 FLEURDEFORTYFOUR on the improve with every start……lead type only is likely to snatch the front end here
1 SKYRING like our 2nd choice it is back to reality for this runner who has been in two consecutive Grade 3 races……didn’t fair well but he had poor trips…..decent shot here to get a nice chase position
race 4 average clarity top pick, long-shot pick exacta was $161.60
7 NIGHT PARTY dangerous speed here….looks loose and he has a very good history when he gets on the clear lead….capable of rating if need be
1 SOUTHERN ANTHEM didn’t like front end in last…..seemingly needs a target to run at…..Albarado usually gives good trips on the turf when has starts from inside posts
LONG-SHOT CHANCE: 2 The Program good post….shot with a ground saving ride…both lifetime grass racing are decent
race 5
6 THERMAL CAT stellar debut at Haw……Catalano does awfully well when he ships a horse on major race days…..I’d say today qualifies
3 MILE HIGH MAGIC powerful effort/fig in 2nd lifetime start at Santa Anita…..and has trained well since with plenty of time between starts to recover from such a strong race
11 JIMMER done little wrong in 2 lifetime starts at OP……some shot if our top two picks press each other from the get go…..good mid pack style for this colt
1 SEVEN LIVELY SINS not much in last 2 endeavors but gets ample rest…..best ever was lone race on the CD surface…..pointed for today…rebound can occur
race 6 hit exacta COLD $32.00 hit double COLD $35.40
2 GREAT ATTACK Ward is super in abbreviated turf sprint races…best races for this horse are 2nd out after layoffs and that is what we have today….positive rider switch too
4 BRIDGETOWN stellar record at the distance and weight off…sharp work tab…..only negative seems to be her 0 for 3 at CD…but she did run well in those races
10 GREAT MILLS nasty post but very fast….has cleared from the 7 and 10 post in last 2 at 5F….should be full throttle early to do the same today
11 CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE nasty post for a mid pack runner to cope with…..stats at CD 5F on the grass are horrid for outside posts….needs a very clever ride
LONG-SHOT CHANCE: 5 CITY STAGE yet to run on the sod very well but 2 starts on it were early in her development….shot to wire if she takes to it now
race 7 top pick, 3rd pick exacta $16.20
4 SHACKLEFORD 7 furlongs sure be a nice fit for this stout runner….gets a little tired at 1 mile out of the CD chute…..more when it counts today
3 APRIORITY solid history on conventional dirt……sharp works at Crc….trainer does well shipping from Florida….nice consistent mid pack running style
6 AMAZOMBIE tremendous sprinter 6 ½ furlongs or less….jury is still out concerning her ability to handle 7F….seems to bring her A game every time….one for one at CD
1 SMILING TIGER never easy to train a horse up to a big race but this 5 year old can run with anyone when he is at a peak…..fresh and well worked….might be ready for top effort
race 8
4 TAPITSFLY seems to be on a major rebound….lots of talent early in career and seems to approaching those early races once more….should be in it from the get go
3 MARKETING MIX stellar history on the sod….1 for 1 on the CD grass…..and 1 for 1 at today’s distance
9 LA REINE LIONNE tough post but trained by an outstanding grass trainer and the jock is as good as anyone on the sod
race 9 top pick 4th pick exacta $41.60
6 GROUPIE DOLL seems razor sharp and at the right time….lifetime best in last …..1st time blinkers……sizzling drills since and they are at CD
3 SASSY IMAGE won this race fresh last year…..fresh again and owns a brilliant work tab
7 SWITCH also training great and very well proven at CD
8 MUSICAL ROMANCE 3 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 at CD….often outruns her odds…..also take note likes slop….might be doing a ran dance
LONG-SHOT CHANCE: 4 SALTY STRIKE loves the CD surface….big effort 2nd out after the layoff2 races back….2nd out after the layoff here
race 10
2 TURALLURE trainer does a great job of getting horses ready for Graded Stakes…much better than his overall win %…ultra consistent grass cutter
6 DOUBLES PARTNER likes CD….likes the distance…..and Pletcher and J J Castellano….a lot to like
5 SLIM SHADEY very significant effort wide thru-out in a marathon grass race at SA….adjusted for trouble fig fits solidly here……obvious ? is the 1 mile distance….sharp Cal turf trainer not so nationally known….hmmmm
10 BRILLIANT SPEED last was the gimme to go go go today……but…..will need a clever ride from a tough post
race 11 2012 KENTUCKY DERBY 6th pick, top pick exacta $306.60
6 BODEMEISTER powerful fig with strong pace 3 races back and also his last at OP…..2 back isn’t too shabby either…..Baffert knows what it takes to win the Derby…..hoping the colt rates back sitting in 3rd, 4th or 5th off a hot projected pace
3 TAKE CHARGE INDY bad trip in th BC Juv last year at CD and still didn’t embarrass himself…….wired on a day at GP where speed wasn’t exactly king
4 UNION RAGS done little wrong in 6 lifetime starts….boxed up some in last….tough call just how much….training sharply
8 CREATIVE CAUSE fires every time with few reasons not to believe that he won’t once again……one negative might be that the trainer doesn’t ship too often
15 GEMOLOGIST bred to run all day long so I doubt the distance will be a problem…….undefeated at 4 different tracks in 5 races….2 wins at CD…. one negative is trainer has a weak history in the Derby with many stout looking horses
19 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER liked him in the SA derby and he came thru nicely……tough post but he has enough speed to clear some and get on over……previous route race at SA was also a solid effort/win
race 12
2 BET THE POWER super spot for speed and he seems to have the most
1 CHILLED can sit close he he breaks cleanly from a tough post out of the CD chute….sharp reassuring a.m. work
3 SHRILL owns some early foot….not sure if he is ready for a peak effort…hard to tell
race 13
5 PARABELLUM distance turf fit….that often bodes well for a 1 mile chute dirt affair….red hot trainer/rider combo
1.1a ENTRY both the 1 and 1a look like they have a shot here
3 GRAND CONTENDER seemingly needs better but the recent work in the a.m. at CD suggest we will see more….dangerous sort
8 FLAPSUP not much in last on the all weather….back to the dirt where he ran a significant effort 2 back in MSW debut
3 May 2012 May starts off just like April. 1st race pick 5 was top, top, 3rd, top, top pick for $1,592.80. 5th race top pick, 3rd pick double $74.00. Box of top 4 picks in the nightcap 8th paid a superfecta of $763.80.
20 April 2012: After any scratches 1st race pick 5 was 2nd, top, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd pick for $6,077.20.
14 April 2012: After any scratches the 1st race pick 5 was top pick ($39.40), top pick, 2nd pick, 2nd pick, top pick for $4,513.60. So far this week our top selection has won 15 of the 25 races run so far.
13 April 2012: After the top pick won the last 5 races on Thursday we had our top pick win 4 of the 1st 5 races today. 1st race pick 5 was 3rd choice, top choice, top choice, top choice, top choice for $2,059.80
Hollywood for Thursday 17 May 2012
Hollywood for Sunday 13 May 2012
Note: I gave one extra selection in races 7, 8, and 9 because I had to do the selections before early scratches. I did this because I’m off for a little R & R in N Cal. including some hiking in Yosemite. I leave you in the capable hands of our other handicapper, Dave Gordon. Nobody I know thinks so much the same about handicapping as Dave and I do. I hope you enjoy his different perspective on the horses. He will be doing the selections Thursday, May 17th thru Sunday, May 20th. Be back with you soon.
race 1 average clarity
5 Morganouska seems like a good sign that this gelding steps up in claiming off a solid wide trip win in last……and he steps up into a soft 16K field
1 Spicy Beau just claimed for 12.5K……..trainer has a small stable but he is capable…….. horse needs to prove self on the AW…….3 for 3 on the dirt……0 for 5 on the AW with 1 3rd
4 Isle Of Prado needs a rebound…..maybe his new trainer Heap can get more out of this gelding then Moger did at GG in 2 starts after he claimed him from Mitchell
race 2 average clarity
5 Miss Ambition logical layoff drop……..strong move for Miller historically……catches a weak F clm 16,000nw2…..proven at Hollywood
1 Burleys Leap won by 5 the last time this filly sprinted on the AW……and it was her last win…….it came route to sprint which is today’s scenario
2 Laura’s Pleasure dismal record for Troeger 1st time in claiming…….but……you might want to keep an eye on this mare as she acted up at the gate in last…….can rebound if she acts better
race 3 average clarity
7 Koast same 7 post as he had when he fired a strong effort/fig down the hill at SA 2 races back…..should be on or close to the lead from the get go giving him a decent shot at 3 for 3 on the sod
4 Atticus Jack 1 for 1 at the distance and 2 of 3 on the Hollywood turf course……has run well reasonably well fresh off of the bench in the past
6 Indian Winter very strong effort 2 races back might have knocked him out some for his next start which was his 1st ever grass race…….sure is bred to handle the green stuff…..lookout if the scenario I presented is what occurred….if so runs big here…..or this might be his last on the grass
2 Rauschenberg 2 of 3 on the sod at Hol including 1 for 1 at the 6F distance………0 for 9 on the sod elsewhere…….sharp trainer and rider
race 4 average clarity
5 Anabaa Premium decent shot to be loose on the lead and with a jockey upgrade…….also his endurance logically can be better with a route race under his belt
4 Qatar’s Pearl about 1/2 of this gelding’s turf route races are solid here if he can duplicate them on the AW…….and his AW pedigree I believe is better than his turf pedigree
6 Stratify very dismal start and a soft pace up front hides this colt’s 1st ever at a route of ground…..(run in his last start)…..solid work regiment since….good route trainer with 3 year old’s in Harty
race 5 average clarity
1 La Mano Nera significant forward move last Fall in 2nd lifetime start…..so 2nd out after the layoff sure bodes well for this Kruljac runner….and the drills since his layoff last are stellar
8 Nofty very quick early……highly likely to clear from the outside and be on the lead with Gomez up….hard to ignore that
7 Blue Jay Attack probably needed his layoff last…….2 for 5 sprinting on the Hol turf course………0 for 6 on the grass elsewhere…..can be flying late
4 Intuitive Nature needs a move forward here…….seems best sprinting on the Hollywood sod……change in surfaces might be the catalyst that wakes this 5 year old up
race 6 average clarity
10 Full’s Kris S. easily best ever was mc debut 3 races back run at 7F at Hollywood….last seems like a turf tightener in aMSW race……7 1/2 furlongs sure seems like a good fit and it won’t be for many in this field….trainer could use a win
8 King’s Red Journey dropped out of MSW racing to mc 50K in latest……..caught slop and appered to totally dislike it…….just like your handicapper…….toss race out……..so now O’Neill drops to mc 3oK……very dangerous
4 Langfurs Lightning back to reality for this runner who was put up in class prematurely after just missing at today’s level……you’ve got to win when the iron is hot….don’t get so high on your horse…..I know I did too often as an former owner of thoroughbreds……anyway back where belongs…….let’s hope it is not too late
5 Swiss Game will need very best…..should get good position close to front in what looks like a soft paced affair
race 7 slightly above average clarity
7 Dhamar faces significantly easier here……marathon distance races are right up his alley
2 Lumberyard Jack liked him at a price in last and he won like a good thing 1st ever at 1 1/2 miles…..decent chance to move forward if his endurance was built up from the successful marathon run
4 Dynamic Host appears to what to run all day long…..lone turf win came at 1 3/8ths miles against a good nw alw field
3 Quantity nice marathon win 2nd out after the layoff in IRE……2nd out after the layoff here and his fresh race wasn’t bad
8 Porfido Harty has done a good job resurrecting this 10 year old’s career…..123 lbs might hurt
race 8 average clarity
4 Ranchero smartly placed to win by Mr. Baffert……all four career sprints he has run says he is the one to overcome here
6 Stone Hot should fit here….jock upgrade and in for 22.5K to get 2 lbs. off…..M Jones seems to mean business
1 Member Ofthe Tribe big run 2nd out after the layoff last year……same scenario today……but for a different trainer this time
8 Meadow Road clunker in last….needs a rebound……good sign Talamo sticks around
5 Quality Elusion not so hot on conventional dirt and turf………back to the AW might awaken
race 9 slightly below average clarity
7 Pourquoi Pas broke poorly in MSW debut last and then showed life in a fast heat of filly MSW’s….with one race under his belt and a better start he should be a significant factor here
5 Eileen’s Dream expensive horse was a bust in her 2 lifetime starts in 2011,,,,,,but she sure is training like a quality runner now…..OK grass pedigree
12 Personal Sunset solid MSW debut on the dirt and she is very nicely bred for the turf……same or better fits well here
9 Shelley Beach dangerous looking Euro invader has some sharp a.m. work showing….might be ready fresh
11 More Chocolate
8 Chapel Chick
2 Los Ojitos
