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Santa Anita for 15 Feb 2010

Handicappers Corner

Welcome to our new website which is now one week old and here to stay for a long time. 

I want to discuss two topics in today's report, one of which we have received some recent emails about. (Thanks for those emails. The first is what we mean when we speak about the "clarity" of a given race. ( we have also used the word visibility) Basically using the words below average, average, and above average with "clarity" I am trying to let you know how difficult a race was for me to decipher. I'd definitely stay clear of low priced horses in races that are rated "below average clarity" and in general put less weight (wagers) on those races. Conversely,  put more weight on the "above average clarity" races.  And if you see that my top pick or picks are decent prices in the above average rated races those should offer good value in the long run. Those are the races I get the most excited about.

The second topic which I believe I discussed once before is about the amount of  analysis I write for each horse. Often in the past I have felt that I rushed my handicapping for the last couple of races so that I can make our time deadline. Don't think we can change the deadline because we do hear from you when we are even a few minutes late. And I need to see the previous days races to see any bias changes that may occur so usually I study in the morning starting at 5 AM Pacific time. So I've decided to study first and then start typing away so as to not jeopardize the handicapping. This will sometimes like today mean names and numbers only or brief comments only. 

Recommended pick 3 part wheel starts in the 5th race      2, 3, 4, 8, 10  with  1, 4, 5, 7, 9  with  4, 10     50 bets

Recommended exacta part wheels in the 9tharce  5 with 3, 7  and  3,7 with 5    4 bets        ( trying to get a price to run with a favorite)

Recommended exacta part wheels in the 10thrace   1, 4 with 8, 9  and  8,9  with 1, 4           (again, trying to get a price to run with a favorite or near favorite)

 

 

Race 1    average clarity

Figeac    last looks like a gimme to come back in 5 days and score....G Stutehas won his last 3 of 6 with such a maneuver

4  Hasty Trend

3   Exile

 

Race 2    above average clarity

4  Run Over You    knocking on the door with an extremely low % rider and now we get Bejarano

3  Devil Cat M D

5  A Royal Tizzy

 

Race 3    average clarity

3  Indian Jones   very powerful work series for someone like Walsh who doesn't push her 1sters too hard usually

6  Locksley Hall

2  Lichtenstein

 

Race 4    average clarity

2  Wicked Mischief   deserved heavy favorite in this spot....all career races are good enough to handle this bunch with a reasonable trip and of course with good health intact

7  Swiss Ski

6  Sidepocket Lou

4  Doriprize

 

Race 5    average clarity

2  Hot Damon   just keeps getting better and better and better......also well proven on the SA hill course.....always a big plus

8  De Car Guy

10  Vaundell

4  Stella Mark

 

Race 6    average clarity

9  Off The Wall   last year in his debut ran 2nd to one of the best sprinters in the country...this year dueled in the nastiest of paces and still only got beat by 2 1/2.....he's a runner

5  Gold Aly

1  Raymorrison

7  Payment Approved

 

Race 7    average clarity

4  Hey Elvis   seemingly faced better overseas and Mitchell sure can get these kind ready to roll....work tab sure supports this 

10  Noblety

2  Orient Emperor

1  Cadillac

 

Race 8    average clarity

3  Sidney's Candy   last a bit disappointing but may have needed a race....race last August would take this quite easily

1  Quiet Invader

4  Classical Slew

 

Race 9   above average clarity

5  Tuscan Evening   very very consistent especially with today's rider...high likelihood gets a great trip

7 Eissoai

1  Cat By The Tale

3  Pretty Unusual

 

Race 10    above average clarity

4  D C Tapit  logical drop to graduate and is training up to snuff off of the layoff to get the job done

1  Nathaniel

5  Uncle Don

8  Warren's Tommy Too

9  Jolley Drive

 

 

 

 

Posted on February 15, 2010 at 10:59 am by brian · Permalink
In: Free Information