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Hollywood for Friday night 7 May 2010


Handicappers Corner

I want to discuss two topics in today's report, one of which we have received some recent emails about. (Thanks for those emails. The first is what we mean when we speak about the "clarity" of a given race. ( we have also used the word visibility) Basically using the words below average, average, and above average with "clarity" I am trying to let you know how difficult a race was for me to decipher. I'd definitely stay clear of low priced horses in races that are rated "below average clarity" and in general put less weight (wagers) on those races. Conversely,  put more weight on the "above average clarity" races.  And if you see that my top pick or picks are decent prices in the above average rated races those should offer good value in the long run. Those are the races I get the most excited about.

The second topic which I have discussed  before is about the amount of  analysis I write for each horse. Often in the past I have felt that I rushed my handicapping for the last couple of races so that I can make our time deadline. Don't think we can change the deadline because we do hear from you when we are even a few minutes late. And I need to see the previous days races to see any bias changes that may occur so usually I study in the morning starting at 5 AM Pacific time. So I've decided to study first and then start typing away so as to not jeopardize the handicapping. This will sometimes mean names and numbers only or brief comments only.  Also I do my best on night racing days to post at 9 AM Pacific ( only bothers 1 or 2 folks and I do understand why) but we don't guarantee our product until a few hours later. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Going for 3 in a row !  4th race pick 3 recommended sequence


1,2,4,5 with 2,3,4,9 with 1,2,7,8

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race 1    average clarity

5  Circle Drive  all 3 lifetime races with blinkers and 1 turn fit in this spot

4  Daylight Storm   very strong pace produced 2 races back was impressive ...... positive switch to Bejarano


race 2    average clarity

1  Concerto's Thunder   O'Neal seems to be getting into the win mode of late and drops this horse for another

5  Devil On The Roof   very solid grass fig in last run 1st out after the claim.....might be a better horse on the AW

2  Oliver   last race fits fine but it was 2 months are good enough to consider ready for the same effort


race 3    slightly below average clarity

6  Dumaani's Gold   price shot has been blocked in 2 straight races.....good chance this cheap claimer has plenty left in the tank for today and should fly late

5  Scilly   turf fit invader from Tup has run some impressive sprints at albeit cheaper tracks but is well placed near the bottom

7  For Sure For Sure   very hard to ignore 16 starts, 7 wins and 4 2nds on the AW.....and....Bejarano is up

1  Rockin Rose   last two efforts fit fine here...definitely has a shot at the circle of joy


race 4    average clarity

4  Platinum Mine   sure like this Mullin's 1st timer's works and pedigree for the grass

5  Love That Melody   best set of drills for a 1st time starter from the Walsh barn in quite some time...also good sod breeding

1  Come Home Quick   decent 1st effort on the grass in last and works since say even more of a horse today

2  So Nice   good speed and a decent post...very solid if moves forward any at all


race 5    average clarity

2  Tamarack Smarty   slow to develop horse has turned into a very nice animal

4  Back At You   believe they will try to rate the horse today...if they do they can get a nice stalk/ponce position maybe

9  Bring It Home   this gelding seems at his very best at 1 mile on the grass

3  Worth Repeating   figs are a little short but blinkers on and a big 7F drill hint at best ever today


race 6     slightly below average clarity

1  Warrens Royal Lady   bad trip in last hides ability...likes the distance

8  Miss Picaboo   1st timer is drilling solidly for this bottom level...very dangerous

2  Hard Eight  strong wake up in last and it was at today's distance

7  Royally Large   on the right end of the learning curve


race 7    slightly above average clarity

2  Tribal Justice    big work and the return to Hollywood which so far he loves....expecting best

6  Brenthurst   good chance to get an excellent chase/stalk position

1  Don't Answer   here's your wire to wire attempt


race 8    average clarity

6  Scrutinizing Kat   caught wide pressing a solid pace did him and that usually does everyone in.....good work series sine and back to trainers top jock

1  Playing For Keeps   very good maiden debut and then tossed a clunker.......blinkers on and a good work series....rebound city

10  Fly Boy   suspicious drop out of MSW to the bottom.....toss a coin

9  Tear Of Allah   long layoff but training like a totally different seemingly much improved animal

11  Slew City Gold   nice return to the races in last and excellent works since



Posted on May 7, 2010 at 11:47 am by brian · Permalink
In: Free Information