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Oak Tree at Hollywood for Thursday 14 Oct 2010

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Recommended Play:
Pic 3 starting in the 4th: 1,4,7,8 with 5,6,7 with 1,6,7 36 bets

Race 1 - Average Clarity
7 - Lucky Trippi - broke slowly and rushed a fast pace in debut..small barn has had its runners ready..major jock upgrade
4 - Wild and Gotaway - Hollendorfer charge did not appear to like the dirt in debut..big recent on track work says we'll see much more today
3 - Forty Paces - has yet to have a clean trip..another with a big recent work and jock upgrade

Race 2 - Below Average Clarity
6 - Stroppy - regressed in last at FPX but returns to preferred surface and distance..should get a good stalking trip..big work
5 - Stevie's Afleet - has run well at HOL..sharp small barn moves her up after 2 good FPX efforts
7 - Brookie Girl - probable chalk has been working decently for return..claim by Glatt who is not strong in the "first after" category

Race 3 - Average Clarity
4 - Mr. Gennaro - interesting that Flores lands here..was not embarrassed in stakes company..should get a good stalking trip
1 - Tiger Bay - showed improved pace in last and has a subsequent strong work..tough post but like Rosario in the irons

Race 4 - Slightly Above Average Clarity
1 - Family Plan - acted up at the gate then got squeezed at the start of turf debut..Proctor takes over with strong stats in all the relevant categories
4 - Slane Castle - washy before last when she lost to a couple in here..move inside could help turn the tables at a fair price
8 - So She Dances - wide trip to split top two choices in last..no reason she won't be there again
7 - Sky Angel - well bred turf newcomer exits key race..could be the speed off a strong recent work

Race 5 - Average Clarity
5 - Arte Viva - started career well on the AW and returns there..love the recent works..tactical speed a big plus here
7 - Money Lover - here's your wire-to-wire attempt
6 - Russian River - tough to face winners for the first time but has won at the distance and handled the AW
3 - Hard Way Ten - never been worse than 4 lengths back..expect her to be right there again

Race 6 - Average Clarity
1 - Lost Prophet - not surprisingly, the turf route experiment was a failure..rail + speed + sprint = box-to-wire
6 - Led Advantage - returns to her winning jockey/trainer combo..should also like the return to the AW and sprinting
7 - Genuine Magic - has run 2 troubled but solid races after the prolonged absence..Raffy stays aboard
5 - Word Association - model of consistency this year..lone score came at this trip

Race 7 - Above Average Clarity
6 - Miss Silver Brook - showed rare speed in G1 try..last turf sprint try much better than it looked..enough pace here to run down
3 - Silver Dawn - working well for return after short freshening..powerful Top Turf figs
8 - Paleo - 3rd race in current cycle..all 3 turf figs fit here..close for a piece
2 - Church Camp - drops from G3 company after 5 month layoff..works solid as is turf breeding

Race 8 - Slightly Below Average Clarity
4 - Free Pourin - didn't show much in debut but has been working up a storm since..Baffert goes to main boy
5 - Doughboy - 2nd out after the layoff and drop from MSW should have him right there
2 - Liquid Asset - try and catch me
6 - Swiss Hero - showed first time pace in last and held reasonably well..distance cutback should help
12 - Double D's Diamond - tough post for debut but always respect Mitchell

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