
Del Mar for Thursday 28 July 2011
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Don't have to be right a lot today as our top choice averages over 8 to 1. Not an easy card by any means but sure has the potential to be lucrative.
 Yesterday's pick 5 payoff was extremely generous for the odds and/or ability of the winners. In general the pick 5 payoffs have been a pleasant surprise especially considering you can spread out some with the 50 cent base.
race 1Â Â Â average clarity
2 Evelyn's Dancer  very high percentage invading trainer takes over this invader who crushed her foes in decent time even for a track like Emd
3 Savy Smiles  might be a real good claim by Bacorn because this filly won her debut in hand while racing wide.....trainer has a stout record 1st out after a claim
1 Real Dream  2 decent runs in 2 lifetime races....off since April but the works strongly suggest she is ready to roll fresh
race 2Â Â Â slightly below average clarity
3 Granite Girl  drops to lowest level ever for her 1st try on the main track.....training awfully well on the SA training track for someone like Vienna who seldom pushes his stock too hard in the A.M.
7 Malusita  solid history on the AW when running 2 turns.....likes ample time between starts and gets it
2 Jana Gail  improving sort steps up once again......might be feeling quite good
6 Dave's Revenge  quite often a bit of a goof but when he runs "settled" his race he fits fine versus these
race 3Â Â Â slightly below average clarity
6 Giveitupforthelady  hmmmm....blinkders off and a blistering bullet 5/8ths drill out of nowhere for this price shot....and last sure looked like a tune-up...
7 Roman Chic  morning glory so far........but morning glory's often run when they are on the lead and she might get it here
3 Woodman's Luck   last looks like a sprint gimme for today's full throttle go at a route.....positive rider switch
2 Zee's Chris  efforts/figs fit fine for this maiden 20K level but sure looks like a hanger.......Bejarano gives it a go for the 4th time in a row
Longshot Possibilities:  1 Warren's Genius  on the right end of the learning curve sprinting and now tries a route.....so so distance pedigree but a good post and positive rider changeÂ
race 4Â Â Â average clarity
8Â Sammy's A Runnin'Â Â Â closer seemingly gets plenty of pace to put in his close.......appears to be feeling great off of some sharp AM work
6 L. A. Weekend  brilliant speed in debut 2 races back......solid pedigree to appreciate a turf sprint
1 Pop'shands Are Hot  another late runner with a favorable pace scenario......good post as well........does tend to hang some
3 Danzig Tribal  proven ability fresh off of the bench.......decent turf sprinter has a good chance to get a nice stalk/mid pace position and try and ponce in the stretch
NOTE:Â 13 Connagher has a shot if he draws in off of the AE's
race 5Â Â Â average clarity
6 Aliza's Dream  turf to dirt angle here.....last time it was used this gelding fired a solid effort/effort (2 back )......Puype sure has been on an extended roll Â
9 Dixie Trouper  very solid career all 5 lifetime starts on the AW.....1st out after the claim for Chew who is decent in that category....1 for 1 at today's distance
8 Via Verde  Sadler claim back is a solid threat if he is ready off a 7 weeks break in the action
7 El Scorpio  another claim back.....laid up 8 weeks but training great and has a good history running fresh
race 6Â Â Â average clarity
11 La Sombre  solid grass fig/effort in layoff run last........ran 2nd in his MSW debut at Dmr last August despite a bad trip......and sharp recent bullet work
10 Sunburn  lost rider at the start in last but ran well in debut ....much better than appears in print
5 Amelia Rose  showed she can run fresh in her last......needs to do it again....would have rated higher if it wasn't for the lack of recent drills....then again Puype trains
4 Evasive Charmer  both out of town efforts are decent....probably only needs a couple of lengths of improvement to compete for the top prize
race 7Â Â Â slightly above average clarity
5 Jax El   shorter rest.....much better drill......loose as usual....all add up to a rebound and enough horse for P Val to have a shot at wiring the field
4 All Star Heat  great job of conditioning by Mac since he took over....should be flying late
3 Berg Bahn  toss out last didn't care much for the main track....back to the turf where 2 back this filly fired a strong effort.....good mid pack ground saving position seems likely
9 Bella Swan  should be in a distant chase position and get 1st crack at our top pick down the stretch
race 8Â Â Â average clarity
6 Taylor Marini  tough trip in mc debut last and still managed 3rd at 29 to 1......believe fitter today and can upset if he gets an improved trip
2 Ancient Coin  solid move forward in last and now switches owner and trainer to Hollendorfer......if he wanted the horse that's good enough for me
7 Warren's Digger  somewhat hidden forward move in last in that he had decent close into a very slow pace up frontÂ
10 Stoney Fleece   1st timer seems fit enough to compete in this spot and has a hot trainer conditioning him
9 Swiss Guard  debut race 3 back fits well here
3 Saros Secret   improving sort needs the trend line to continue
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