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Hollywood for Thursday 17 November 2011
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Only 1 grass race today but 3 on the lawn tomorrow (which I have already studied) and all 4 races are rated higher than average clarity. It has been a long time since that has occurred
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Average looking card for today.
race 1Â Â Â average clarity
3 Stormy Randle  exits a fairly fast for the class turf route in latest....beaten by 5 but that should tighten her up and give her an endurance advantage over most in this spot.....positive rider change
7 Milania  3 decent 2nd"s in N Cal all as favorite.......1st long but bred well to appreciate a route of ground......trainer/rider combo have hit the board in last 7......5 of which were wins
1 Sage D'oro  not much in MSW debut last but the trainer is much better with 2nd time starters.....drills are strong lately.......P Val sitting on the 1 hole in a race void of speed.....my guess is he will go after the front
race 2Â Â Â average clarity
5 Peppy Bolly  horse has hesitated/steadied some in all 4 lifetime starts.....better gate jock up today......cleaner start and this filly should be on or near the lead thru-out.......still has a shot even if she gives away a couple of lengths at the start
8 Unusual Hottie  Sadler has won with more than 1/2 his last dozen starts with 1st out maiden claimers and this filly is training up to snuff to be ready 1st out of the box
6 Freckles Galore  not the best of conditioners with 1st timers but this filly is working (at least on paper) as good as anyone in here
2 Warren's Goldie  not too much in debut but the trainer is awakening and her recent 5/8ths workout hints at an improved and fitter animal for her 2nd lifetime start
race 3Â Â Â average clarity
1 Gatheratthealter  only race ever at a route on the AW is a very strong adjusted for trouble number.....same effort with even an average trip gets the job done here for his new conditioner
4 Graeme Crackerjack  only route on the AW which was run ta GG fits fine.......wide trip in last on the "dirt" at SA hides a good run....new jock today
7 Wild Revenge  only lifetime race not on the grass stands out as a superior effort/fig.....that was on the slop at Crc.......1st ever on the AW.......tough call.......toss a coin
6 Fire Seeker  trainer has been heating it up of late.......gelding will need best and will need to avoid flattening out late.....had sprint prep and then a much improved drill just 6 days ago
race 4Â Â Â average clarity
1 Achak  ran powerfully last spring sprint turf to route on the Hol AW......3 for 6 on the Hol synthetic.......4 for 6 at today's distance
6 Spurrier  doubt good connections behind this horse would send this horse out that has served them well if he wasn't in good enough health to still be a major factor at today's lower level
2 Coluda  career best was turf to AW......that is today's scenario
5 Gothic Samurai  only 1 so so career race in 1 effort on the AW....but training as if he can handle the Hol synthetic surface......deserves another shot on the AW
race 5Â Â Â average clarity
6 Los Bomberos  learned to rate very successfully in last.......race seemingly sets up for an off pace runner.....1 for 1 on the Hol synthetic and it was a very strong effort/win
10 Gibson Home Red  strong likelihood to see plenty of early heat in this affair but this fellow definitely qualifies as speed of the speed....good speed rider.....good speed trainer
5 Edgewick Road  deep closer seemingly gets what he needs and that is numerous "lead type only's" that should make for a lively pace up front and flatter his late kick
3Â Star Dance M DÂ Â another late runner with a race style profile that fits......handles the Hol surface fairly well and that is somewhat hidden
race 6Â Â Â slightly above average clarity
6 Tizalwaysomething  good return to the race wars after being absent from the scene for 11 months......good 2nd in a sprint grass race........believe that sets her up (as well a 3 nice drills since) nicely for a strong route turf effort today
2 Heidi Maria  consistent sort that has run quite a few solid races not to have graduated would have been top pick if it wasn't for her tendency to flatten out in races past 1 mile
4 Cee's The Year  horrendous journey in last hides a strong forward move....the kind of move that says she fits in MSW races.....1st long.....1st turf......adequate breeding to handle both
5 Let's Go Cheyenne  will need to build on an OK effort in last so as to have something left in the late stages of the race when the real running starts....back in shorter rest might help
race 7Â Â Â slightly below average clarity
1 Kettle Corn  on the improve in each start on synthetic surfaces......last race run on the AW two races back was an impressive wide turn 2 move and winning effort
4 Java Man  very dangerous speed type is training sharply but on conventional dirt......jury is still out on his ability to run well on AW surfaces......does have an excuse for a dull performance in lone race on it in that it was a race run off of a 9 month layoff
6 Uncle Sam  not sure if this fellow is in the same form as he was when he fired a lifetime best in his lone race ever on the HOL synthetic last May...... but...... lookout if he is
race 8Â Â Â slightly below average clarity
9 Stromberg   90% sure last was nothing more than a sprint tune-up......bullet drill since.......ran a very strong MSW route race last Jan at Crc on conventional dirt after a sprint debut.....set up for today......major player if this fellow handles the synthetic as well as he did the conventional dirt at Calder
8 Maestro  broke MSW in 2nd lifetime start last summer only to be DQ'd to 2nd......2nd out after the layoff seems like a good thing
3 Visionary Man SCRATCHED
1 Admission  recent works and back to the AW hint that we may see his effort 3 races back which is quite strong
4 Jim's Decision  good prep sprint in layoff last....lone route race is fine.......should be prominent from the get go......a very comfortable position for a jockey like P Val
7 Candy Sweetheart  good race on the AW at Dmr.....bad news on the dirt at SA......back to the AW albeit at Hollywood......owns good speed.....most likely on or near the front end with a patience rider aboard
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