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Santa Anita for Saturday 10 March 2012
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Not the easiest of cards to decipher today. Four races rated below average clarity and the only one rated above looks awfully chalky.
Seems like a very difficult pick 6 but if you are inclined to play I would consider making our top picks in the 7th and the 10th "singles".
race 1Â Â Â above average clarity
5 Cook Inlet  logical drop out of MSW affairs......especially considering the horse's connections.......9 races races without a win.......patience ends.....time to be a winner
4 No Kukui  another MSW drop down.......filly tries the boys.....might feel awfully good off the long layoff after 1 career race.......in for 35K and a filly so 7 lbs off....draws Bejarano.....sure suggests filly is meant and ready
2 Soi Phet  2 bad trips in MSW affairs and now drops into mdn40K racing.......solid recent 6 furlong work....historically Gary Stute is very solid MSW to mdn claiming and 1st at a route......dangerous sort
race   average clarity
7 Late Night Sky  1 1/8 seemingly was a bit too far for this gelding's liking.....cut back 1/8 should help.......only mile grass race on firm turf was rather impressive
6 Brother Francis  will most likely win this if he runs on the grass as well as he has on the main track....turf pedigree is decent
2 No Silent  good MSW debut down the hill.......will need a small forward move 1st long to overcome our top 2 selections
1 Achillies  1st timer is training well enough to be ready in his lifetime debut....better be a good one because the top 3 are proven and then some
race 3Â Â Â average clarity
2 Filly Power  has run well 3 times making significant drops......down to 8K from 22.5K today surely qualifies as another such drop
8 Desperate Measures  plenty of early speed types in this affair can set things up for this late running type that has seen better days but still can compete here
6 Cha Da Boom  another who isn't much but can run some from off of it and that might be all it takes here
3 Five Star Cruise  10 lb apprentice has yet to hit the board in 11 starts at the SA Winter/Spring meeting but this filly is 1 for 1 on conventional dirt and that race was at today's distance of 5 1/2 furlongs...laid up awhile but sure is training sharply for a filly 8K claimer
race 4Â Â below average clarity
3 Relentless  first two of three lifetime turf races this filly was unruly at the gate.....she settled down for her 3rd race on the turf on Feb 20th and ran a much improved grass race......if she repeats the effort 1st time at a route she will be the one to overcome here......good post....good pedigree to get a mile turf race....good turf rider
7 Joburg Star  major move forward in last.....won easily despite being wide close to a hot pace......only grass run was good enough.......1st going long.....bred to handle a route just fine
6 Confucius Junior  light weight hot apprentice is up........I believe he will try to get the jump on them here and try and take them from gate to wire.....can chase if need be but I think his best shot is to lead setting a reasonable pace
1 Warren's Kong  doubt gets the heat up front to get up in time at 1 mile on the grass....but sometimes the pace you see on paper is hardly the pace you actually get
race 5Â Â Â average clarity
2 Megaride  Eurton runners this meet have run better than his record would indicate....like this one....checked early and ran 3 wide......a good trip today could do the trick
5 Seek The Light  should feel good coming off a grass run....back where Carava claimed is usually a big plus
3 Jim's Decision  only route race for this 4 year was decent....switch to hot apprentice seems like a good deal considering the weight off going long
7 Spicey Beau  owns good early speed in this spot with a good lead rider up....shot to get away and hide
race 6Â Â Â below average clarity
7 Depreciable  very positive rider switch and Mullins is red hot.....cut back to a sprint grass race looks like a good thing for this colt who likes to flatten out some late in routes
10 Kumiva  history suggests this one will move forward 2nd out after the layoff....can get a nice chase position once again
5 Le Mans  decent layoff run in last....only needs a couple of lengths of improvement 2nd out after the layoff and he will fit fine in this spot
8 Don Perico  looks loose......not the most heart in late stretch so he best rate kindly and slow things down a notch
Possible long-shot: 6 Silver Spur  race 4 back his 1st run in the USA is solid.....recent work tab is vastly improved......rebound city is possible at a handsome price
race 7Â Â Â average clarity
5 My Selections  Baffert 1st timer appears totally ready to roll and seemingly catches a weak group of MSW runners
6 Fly Solo  has shown life in both races on the AW.....training as if she is meant and ready fresh off the bench.....Rosario riding is another hint she is ready....first on "real" dirt but bred to handle it
2 Pslam Sixteen  Biancone 1st timer is training well and looks ready for debut
3 Perpetua  Kruljac 1ster sure shows some speed in her morning preparation.....only has to stay 5 1/2 so if she is fast she should be a fit
race 8 Â Â below average clarity
2 Lady Of Shamrock  won for fun 2 races back finishing up with an easy hand ride and earned a decent fig....bombed on the dirt in last....back to the green stuff today
3 Indigo River  very solid sprint turf races in Ire and the U S of A.......bred just fine to get a turf mile....trainer is firing on all cylinders
4 Graser  dueled thru-out and still won at today's distance......shot here if that eye to eye start to finish win didn't take too much out of her
9 She Spirit Di Su  lookout if this filly didn't care for the hill in last.....race 2 back fits solidly.....it was her 1st run in the USA and it was run at today's distance
race 9Â Â Â below average clarity
7 Creative Cause  ran very big last time ran 7F followed by 1 1/16F....same scenario today for this Ky Derby candidate
2 Bodemeister  following this colt's last win I considered him my leading candidate to win the "roses" in May.....but I am a bit concerned about his light work tab since.....thus 2nd pick today
6 Liason  here's a more familiar work tab from Baffert.....22 good furlongs of work spaced 19 days apart....ready ready ready
3 American Art  on the right end of the learning curve......1st long but well bred to handle it if not now sometime in the future......last sprint effort/ fig is solid for the level
Possible long-shot: 5 Groovin' Solo  1/2 bro to Premier Pegasus who was one of the top 3 Derby candidates last year until he got hurt....I loved him......this colt keeps training better than he runs but blinkers off today to take back and shake things up...not impossible
race 10Â Â Â average clarity
10 Dr. Evil   laid up runner is dropping out of MSW racing and is training as if he is 100% ready to roll......and he catches a soft looking bunch of maiden 30K claimer
4 Zander  hidden speed in debut last....broke a little tardy or could have been on the lead...blinkers on today....good chance to be prominent from the get go in his 2nd lifetime start....positive jock change too
7 Already There  woke up some with the blinkers off in last and now we get a jock upgrade
1 Master Rudy  broke slow and ran very wide in last....not a good thin in a 5F race....0 for 11 app up today...but lookout if he breaks well here...should stay a long time with those 10 lbs off
11 Warren's Wesley  trouble in both lifetime races.......smoother trip and a couple of lengths improvement and he has a shot
2 Bessemer Victory  some life in this one's works but not much of a 1st time starter trainer.....I'd only use a slice of the pie here and not a winner
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