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Breeders Cup at Santa Anita for Friday 2 November 2012

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Breeders Cup is here at last

Very difficult to keep our significant customer base happy with suggested plays because folks sure have their preferences when it comes to the manner in which they wager. So I basically gave out suggested wagers that I most likely won't pass on if the odds and the track surface is right

Best morning line value plays would be our top pick in races 1, 2, 6, 8, and 9.  Also anywhere near the morning line on the on our 2nd choice in race 10 would be awfully sweet.

Best rolling bet single on the card for me would be our top pick in the 4th race.

Late pick 4 to consider starts in the 7th race. Use all our selections in the 7th----our top pick in the 8th-----all our selections in the 9th-------all our selections in the 10th (4 x 1 x 4 x 5) and then play another ticket with all our picks in the 7th----our other five picks  not used on the 1st ticket in the 8th-----our top pick in the 9th-----and all the selections again in the 10th (4 x 5 x 1 x 5) That is a total of 180 combinations. Too rich for your blood? use top picks in races 8 and 9 or 4 x 1 x 1 x 5 for 20 combinations

Best of luck on this exicting day.

 

race 1    average clarity

3  Segway   very nice return to the race wars in last and the effort is somewhat disguised by a tough trip........good post.......good grass rider.....hot trainer in Mandella.........and a pedigree that is  screaming out for added distance

9  Swift Eagle   1 for 1 at today's distance on the grass and it was also his strongest performance to date........interesting 5 year old as he didn't start his career until March of this year........working lately as if his best is yet to come.......Gomez knows this runner well.....5th straight ride on him

8  Te Rapa   gelding can be a bit of a goofball at times but when he behaves he is highly dangerous......1 1/8th on the grass is also a very good fit

10  Dreamcatcher    yet another who appreciates the 1 1/8th on the grass.......his ability is getting somewhat hidden in that 3 of his last 4 races were pace-less affairs and he sat too far back in those races to make much of an impact in the stretch

4  Big Bang Theory   done little wrong in 2 lifetime starts on the grass but he has a little more to prove in that he has some ? marks when it comes to handling 1 1/8 on the sod as compared to our top 4 selections.....still.....ultra dangerous with Gaines/Talamo and a recent bullet drill

 

race 2    average clarity

4  d'Princess   significant move forward with the blinkers back on both in final time and pace.......deservedly steps up......wire to wire attempt once again with an excellent gate jock on her back.......trainer historically is quite good with repeat winners

7  Big Tiz   awfully nice filly to still qualify for filly nw1x.......she needs to overcome her tendency to hang........definitely owns the most talent in the field but it is difficult to have confidence in her winning when her lone lifetime win is by a head

9  Magical Band   filly has what it takes to compete in this spot if she is ready off of the 5 month hiatus from racing......bit of a dichotomy here in that she is training awfully well and draws Bejarano to ride.....but her trainer is very poor (historically speaking) off of layoffs

2  Conkate   nice history on the conventional dirt at SA........just fired lifetime best in latest.....smartly steps up and will fit if she moves forward 2nd out after the layoff......trainer is having a very good 2nd half of 2012

Long-shot possibilities:   8  My Brite Caroline   easily fires her best on the SA main track and her work regiment in preparation for today's race strongly suggests she will welcome a return to it's conventional dirt surface......also does her best running at today's 6 1/2 furlong distance

 

race 3    average clarity

1  Got Even   loves SA and this is the last shot of running on it's dirt surface for 3 months.....owns very strong final time figs versus the competition here...... but Blanc best break her well from a tough post because so far in his career this gelding has been a "lead type only"
7  Macho Dorado   very solid race when last seen on 3 Sept at Dmr and the effort is well hidden by a bad trip....checked 2 on run-up then 5 wide.....ouch......and handles the SA dirt just fine and the 7F distance seems like a good fit.....big shot here if returns ready

4  Seven Bridges   just keeps getting better........and better........and better.......and Gomez rides for the 4th straight time......and......

8  Sir Allison    very wide trip in last and bumped in the stretch and still won in latest....and rated for the 1st time........it is usually a very good sign when a one dimensional horse preforms successfully in a different running style.....also is a good sign that Mr. Baffert steps this runner up back into a non-claiming affair

6  Northern Iowa   on the right end of the learning curve and sure is training as if the the trend can continue.....Cerin is having a very nice SA meeting

 

race 4    slightly above average clarity

3  Merit Man    very strong effort in 2nd lifetime start caught a bit wide pressing a solid pace.......repeat of the race would make him very solid here

4  South Floyd   done little wrong in 2 lifetime starts....did lose by 5+ lengths to our top choice but broke slightly tardy and then dueled in solid pace......jock upgrade and a small move forward might do wonders for this O'Neill runner

7  Sweet Shirley Mae   off pace N.Y. invader has a nice work regiment leading up to this race.......not a lot of speed in this kind of race and that might hurt his chances....connections will be hoping for a duel up front

5  Super Ninety Nine   useful winning MSW debut......the works since suggest he benefited from the race......Baffert runner needs to move forward and might

 

race 5   slightly below average clarity

1  Atigun   trainer is stellar in marathon affairs and 14 furlongs sure qualifies as a marathon

12  Worth Repeating   terrific job by Machowsky since he snatched this horse at the claiming box.......proven in marathons and is 2 for 2 lifetime on fast rated conventional dirt....and one of those races was at SA in a Grade 3 marathon

10  Eldaafer   horse seems to have finally broken out of the doldrums......comes in sharp and he fired a strong B C marathon effort a couple of years back also very sharp at the time.....very capable trainer with shippers

3  Balladry   trainer has won 6 of his last 18 with the blinkers off.....they are off today.........horse has a habit of running well of off bad efforts.....last surely qualifies as bad........colt acts like he will run all day long

4  Grassy   little question that this Martin runner likes to run all day.....the question mark is the dirt.....1st ever on it with a so so pedigree for it.........we shall see how he handles it

11  Commander   might be left alone on the front end as the horse you don't want to go after and/or the horse not too worry much about......might steal it if that happens

5  Jaycito   feels good.....just fired lifetime best in last.........hard to tell if he will like the 1 3/4's.....fits well if he does

 

race 6    slightly below average clarity

10  Waterway Run   flashed very good early speed in his races in GB which will come in handy with his difficult outside post......has won on the front end and from just off of it......seems to be peaking......likes firm turf.....welcome to sunny Cal

3  Sky Latern   comes in with the best credentials....watched tape of some of her efforts and she sure can quicken when asked.....good post and doubt she will ever be too far back with a clean break

1  Kitten's Point   USA contender has never been on Lasix so that is a big plus as she doesn't have to go off of it with the new rules for babies at the B Cup......nice late kick in latest despite a slow pace up front.....good post and gets Bejarano who obviously has a home field advantage

6  Watsdachances   did win by 6 lengths in a 5F turf sprint in Ireland without Lasix.......so at least we know he can win without it.....but still it might hurt going off it....anyway......she sure is on the right end of the learning curve and is trained by a good grass conditioner in Chad Brown

8  Tara From The Cape   back on the grass where this runner has performed best.....1 mile looks like a good fit as does the firm turf he will see at SA.....switch to John Velasquez hints she will use her tactical speed and be forwardly placed enhances her chances of saving some ground into turn 1

5  Spring Venture   won on yl turf.....won on firm turf........won on the synthetic......will try and make it 4 for 4 wining versus tougher and off of lasix.....not impossible but definitely my 6th pick in the race

 

race 7    average clarity

1  Beholder   obviously ran her eyeballs out in last both when it comes to pace and final time.....but her previous was almost as impressive as she was down on a bad inside and still almost handle the 2 horse......needs to avoid a speed duel with the 8 horse

8  Kauai Kattie   believe Napravnik will be willing to chase as she did with great success in her last enhancing her chances and that of our top pick too......1st at a route but sure is bred well to handle it

2  Executiveprivilege   undefeated but somewhat fortunate to win her race 2 back and then got away with a very slow pace and wired in her 1st ever at a route.....still......obviously.......a very dangerous Baffert runner

3  Spring in the Air   late running filly might get ample pace up front to come flying down the stretch if she handles her 1st on the conventional dirt well enough

5  Dreaming Of Julia   fell off in latest barely winning at low low odds in a field of 4........and 1st around 2 turns is still a ? mark as it is for our top two selections.....but trouble if this Pletcher 2 year old rebounds

 

race 8    average clarity

9  Marketing Mix    four year old filly loves the 1 1/4 distance.......is very sharp now when it counts.........and seemingly fires whether she is up near the leaders or back with the horses in the rear......would like to get the 9-2 morning line on this top pick 

10  Ridasiyna   nice rebound in latest in France.......excellent 2 races when back in 3 to 4 weeks.......off 26 days since her Grade 1 win in France.....also like that her regular rider comes along for the mount

4  The Fugue   right there at the wire in all 5 races rated good........not so close in her two races rated soft.....so that tells me she will appreciated the firm turf that Santa Anita has to offer......and she is conditioned by a world class trainer 

8  Nahrain   1 1/4 seems like a good fit for this GB invader who just won a Grade 1 in the Big Apple despite a so so trip.....but putting the blinkers on after an impressive win seems crazy to yours truly or I would have rated higher

12  In Lingerie     not much speed in the race and if this Pletcher runner who is 3 for 3 on the synthetic (winning those 3 races by an average of of almost 4 3/4 lengths) takes to the turf he has a shot to put them asleep on the front end.......good grass pedigree/runs well on the AW =  likely to handle the green stuff

11  I'm A Dreamer   Euro seems to do his best running in the good old U S of A and it appears to be because he responds to being on Lasix when he runs here.....fits fine with a good trip

 

race 9    average clarity

5  Awesome Feather   move over Zenyatta here I come......shooting for 11 in a row......has a beautiful stalking style biding her time and then poncing on the leaders.......filly has won her 5 lifetime route races by an average of over 6 lengths.....yikes

8  Love And Pride   two consecutive powerful Grade 1 wins since taking the blinkers off.......might have plenty of horse left in the tank coming off a soft paced wire to wire romp in the park win at SA

6  Royal Delta   our top pick last year partly because she loves CD.......1st ever at SA and comes off a very big effort and she sometimes falls off some after a big run.......but she sure is working as though that might not happen this time around

1  Grace Hall   trainer used a small Stakes as a confidence building stepping stone last year prior to a nice 2nd place finish in the BC filly July.......won at Hoo in latest for another confidence builder....same pattern by trainer A Dutrow might work again

 

race 10    average clarity

2  Speaking Of Which   last sure looks like a needed layoff race which was run in Ireland.........crushed foes prior to his last by 9 lengths in a race off of 7 weeks rest.......8 weeks rest for today's race

3  Power Foot  price shot had a solid move forward in last 1st time at today's 1 1/8 mile distance......4 lbs off......impressive series of long works should have this Mandella runner very fit and well prepared for his late run done the stretch

7  Grandeur   gelding ships in from GB and I believe this gelding will appreciate the firm and quick turf that SA has to offer.......Euro invader has been 1st or 2nd in all his races when the sod was rated firmer than sf or hy....last 6 races have been 1 1/8 to 1 1/4.....nobody in the field has that kind of long distance experience and endurance fitness

8  My Best Brother   lead type only seems to be getting better the further he runs.....repeat of his last has a shot at winning this if Martin Garcia milks the early pace just a bit

6  Old Time Hockey   on the improve with every start......retains Santa Anita's leading rider.......solid work series and a good turf conditioner in Tom Proctor.......not impossible with a very good trip by Talamo 
  

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Posted on November 1, 2012 at 7:38 pm by richs · Permalink
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