Printer Friendly View Printer Friendly View

Breeders Cup at Santa Anita for Saturday 3 November 2012

[private]

 

Breeders Cup is here at last

Very difficult to keep our significant customer base happy with suggested plays because folks sure have their preferences when it comes to the manner in which they wager. So I basically gave out suggested wagers that I most likely won't pass on if the odds and the track surface is right

Sure like today's card so I'm hoping for a big day after yesterday's debacle!

Best morning line value plays would be our top pick in races 2, 4, 6, & 7 and our 2nd choice in the B C Classic race no. 12.

Best potential singles for the rolling bets are our top picks in races 5, 7, 11, & 12

Most interesting exacta box of the day is a box of our top two picks in the B C Classic race no. 12

 

race 1    average clarity

1  Bares Tripper   best ever was her race 2 back her lone start on a conventional dirt surface......should be legged up nicely to handle 7 furlongs coming off of a grass 1 mile effort......back to Gomez who has been getting the job done for Peter Miller this meeting

3  Truly Marie   believe gets the lead here with Gomez likely seeking the chase position with our top selection.....very strong effort/fig 3 back on the AW at Del Mar......like our top pick cutting back in distance off of a grass two turn affair........unproven on conventional dirt but bred fine to take to it

2  Switch to the Lead    might set up for this mid pack runner if the 1, 2, and 4 press the issue early.....Biancone runners have been performing better than his record indicates

 

race 2    average clarity

5  Gabriel Charles   both lifetime sprint races on the synthetic fit fine at tody's level of racing.......wanted no part of a route and/or real dirt in last.......back to a sprint for her 1st ever on the grass and she is training on the turf as if she has a good chance of moving forward on it....and forward off of her AW sprints might make her the one to beat at a very nice price........and last but not least Mullins has been uncanny good on the grass all year long.......one negative.....off Lasix is a ? mark

2  Upward Spiral   very nice turf sprinter from GB beat 7 horses in a Grade 1 turf sprint at Newmarket and finished 4th in her last on 29 September......and she has the advantage of never having been on Lasix and having to go off of it for today

10  Den's Legacy   proven sprinter on the main track just fired a very solid route grass race for Bob Baffert.......colt should be very fit for his 1st run down the hill and likely will be motoring late with Gomez aboard who is stout with mid pack/late runners on the sod

3  Snow King   won at 1st asking beating 16 horses in his MSW debut at Ascot which is never easy to accomplish.....and his pedigree suggests that California's fast and firm turf will be to his liking......and of course he has that never been on Lasix advantage

12  Mico Margarita   done nothing wrong in 2 lifetime starts including a solid sprint turf effort in his MSW debut at the tough Saratoga meeting.....in that debut turf sprint he had a bad trip and still only lost by neck......Rosario stays up for a 3rd straight time....an obvious plus....off Lasix is not

 

race 3    average clarity

3  Politicallycorrect    impressive win in last in the Ok Derby........another stellar performance was his last run at 7F which was a race occurring in late Feb at GP......7F today and a very reassuring work tab suggesting he has recovery nicely from his big effort in his last

4  Mile High Magic  consistent Baffert runner........ lifetime best for this gelding was his 2nd lifetime start...... a 6 1/2 furlong affair at SA last March.....work tab suggests Baffert understands his potential on the SA dirt and sure has him all cranked up off of an 8 week break.......jock upgrade back to Bejarano

5  Private Zone   nice 3rd at 32 to 1 in last a 300K Stakes race at Prx.......held very well considering he was involved in a very nasty speed duel......won a Grade 3 at 7F at 2 in Panama by almost 4 lengths.....big 6F gate drill hints this O'Neill runner has returned home in good shape

7  Sir Bond   on the improve with every career start.....and 7 furlongs sure looks like a good thing as this Asmussen charge handled a one mile chute race at Belmont in his latest quite well

 

race 4    average clarity (note: really like my 6 selections in this large field but they were tough to split)

2  Artigiano   developing steadily in the right direction.......likes firm turf.......ran a significant effort in 2nd lifetime start in Great Britain......so......2nd out after a 59 day break in the action sure seems like a smart move to be primed and ready for the biggest race of this youngster's life

6  Dundonnell   done little wrong in 3 straight races since getting to run on firmer ground.....and I like the fact this colt has some early gas in a race that isn't exactly loaded with speed types

7  Brown Almighty   after showing a nice stalking style in 3 straight solid grass races his jockey F. Torres had this colt too far back in his latest and paid a price in that he got blocked and bumped 5 or 6 lengths in the stretch.....new jock today.....off Lasix (2 year old)?

8  Balance The Books  Chad Brown runner also had a bad trip in the same race at Kee as our 3rd pick....about 7 lengths of trouble.....deep closer really pours it on late.....off Lasix but I believe off pace runners are less likely to stress out and get hurt by being off of Lasix

9  Noble Tune   another Chad Brown runner who likes to run with a big kick in the very late stages.....will need a great ride from a low % post at 1 mile on the turf......terrific rider up to accomplish the task/challenge

10  Joha   defintely on the right end of the learning curve with few reasons (except being off of Lasix) not to believe the trend won't continue......good chance to be on or near the lead from the opening bell

 

race 5    slightly above average clarity

9  Groupie Doll   4 for 4 since the blinkers were put on and won by wide margins in all 4 races.....relatively fresh as this is only her 3rd race since Ky Derby day........and sure has worked as if she has remained at the top of her game

3  Dust And Diamonds   seems like a great spot for a speed horse and she is very ratable as opposed to a horse who runs off and tries to hide.....can upset here if she is allowed to slow things down

8  Musical Romance   likes 7 furlongs on the conventional dirt.......shes a very smooth runner and should get a very nice stalk position......and I sure like the fact she was given an easy spot in latest to get a race in with little stress and be at a peak for this afternoon

10  Switch    loves 7 furlongs including 2 for 2 at 7F on the conventional dirt track at SA.......and man is she working like her peak form has returned

6  Turbulent Descent   extremely talent filly at 2 and 3.......the somewhat specialty distance of 7 furlongs has been her best distance.......and she is working as if she is on the rebound for her new trainer Todd Pletcher

 

race 6    slightly above average clarity

4  John Scott   plenty of upside for this gelding who is just starting to get his Stakes career going ..... he was very impressive in last.....so much the best in the race.......broke a length slow and then ran very wide......better post today should help get a better trip.......plenty of pace up front can sets things up for his mid pace style

6  Shackleford   woke up in last and is training like he is definitely returning to top form......but.......he sure needs to avoid a nasty speed duel in this affair loaded with early speed types.....talented smart jock aboard to get the job done

5  Fed Biz   has shown he can cope with a torrid early pace and still get a mile.......that makes him a dangerous speed of the speed player....and can rate just off of it if need be giving Talamo some options

7  Emcee   very talented sprinter who is working exceptional well.......tall task to have your 1st career race around 2 turns in a B C race........ but on the other hand his trainer historically is very good 1st time in a 2 turn route

 

race 7    average clarity

9  Bridgetown   been running in abbreviated turf sprints of 5 and 5 1/2 furlongs for quite some time.......but this 5 year old ran 2nd on the SA grass at 2 in the B C Juv turf mile......6 1/2 might be an excellent fit......reassuring sharp bullet grass drill just 6 days ago

1  California Flag   didn't like this old timer who years ago would crush this bunch until I heard this was his last race ever and then saw his work tab which makes him look like he is 4 years old rather than 8

11  Mizdirection   highly competitive filly is 2 for 2 down the majestic SA hill turf course and owns 5 wins and 3 2nd's in 8 turf starts overall.......mid pack style fits the hill and Mike Smith seems to get the most out of her

13  Unbridled's Note   awfully good in sprint races on any surface including a solid 1st ever down the hill in latest.....another with a nice mid back style that fits the hill especially with all the early gas that is in this affair

6  Upgrade  sure likes 7F on the grass so 6 1/2 down the hill might be a very good fit......also runs his best on very firm turf........welcome to sunny S. California where a forest fire and maybe even an earthquake are more likely than rain

 

race 8    slightly above average clarity

9  Power Broker   dueled on the grass at 1 mile in a nasty pace and still almost won.....then he was way too wide pressing a solid pace and still blew away his competition on the SA dirt.......and since that monster effort he has worked as if the big run did not takes it toll.....better trip and the same effort/energy as he displayed in last and I sure love his chaces

4  Shanghai Bobby   easily the best from the East coast is very impressive but does have to run around two turns for the 1st time in his career

1  Title Contender   unlike his barn mate (our top pick) this Baffert runner got away with an easy pace and wired on a speed rail day.......that race proves little but what I like is the fact the race most likely took nothing out of him and he should feel awfully good with plenty in the tank for this afternoon's big B C race

8  Forify   negatives: the 4 horse has been blowing him away.......and the extra 1/16 in distance might flatten him out........positives:  hasn't been running on Lasix and everyone else in the field has and they will have to go off of it......and his trainer is quite dangerous when he ships

6  Dynamic Sky   on the improve with every start all of which were on the synthetic.......but his two works on the conventional dirt surface at CD are good........if the improving trend continues and he handles SA's dirt he should fit fine

 

race 9    average clarity

1  Point Of Entry   6 for 6 in the win column when racing either 1 3/8ths or 1 1/2 miles on the grass.......trainer knows how to win Breeders Cup races........works are very good.....nice mid pack or stalking position likely behind suspect front runners 

3  St Nicholas Abbey   bombed in the Arc in France in last but that might be a good thing because historically speeaking horses that perform well in the Arc run poorly in the Breeders Cup.......for me this 5 year old's best ever was last year when he got Lasix for the 1st time and blew away the field in last years edition of this race.....gets it again this year

5  Shareta   same bad race scenario in the her last which was also in the Arc........most likely didn't care for the heavy going.....filly has had an excellent 2012 and sure appears to like firm as she will get today.......Euro jock knows this filly well 

12  Trail Blazer   ultra impressive in latest his 1st in the U S of A and 1st on Lasix.........wants to run much further than 1 mile yet he almost ran down one of today's favorites in the B C Turf Mile......potential is there for a very big effort this afternoon back at his game.......marathon turf

11  Slim Shadey   seems at very best at 1 1/2 miles on the grass which is what he gets this afternoon.....a bit shy fig wise but nothing that couldn't be overcome with a lifetime best and a good ride by Mr. Gomez

 

race 10    below average clarity   (below average clarity in the B C sprint?  what's new)

11  Amazombie   not at his best in last and I am not sure if he rebounds or not but a do know this........he won this race last year versus better and he likes SA so if he rebounds he sure looks formidable

8  Capital Account   wide trip in last or could have won the Grade 1 sprint at SA.......and has a very good history when able to run back in 4 or 5 weeks rest........4 weeks rest today 

4  Coil   blinkers back on in latest and won like a good thing..........owns 4 wins and one 2nd in 5 lifetime starts with the blinkers on.....and is 3 for 3 lifetime running in 6F affairs

12  Hamazing Destiny   believe this Lukas runner is peaking at the right time and I think it is somewhat hidden.......just ran his best ever at 7 furlongs a distance that this 6 year old is not very fond of........but does like 6F........so......back to 6F off of a strong 7F bodes well for today

10  Smiling Tiger   not much for the last 15 months but Bonde smartly stopped on this horse and has put some very impressive drills into him......fits very well here if he his fully ready and breaks decently out of the gate......only seems to break cleanly about 60% of the time

3  Gantry   won 5 straight races at 6 furlongs........broke the streak in last with little shot to perform in the race....sat in mid pack behind a goofy slow sprint pace and ran evenly down the stretch as you might expect......should be pace today and we get a significant rider upgrade

2  Jimmy Creed   done little wrong in 5 lifetime starts and showed he can handle the conventional dirt in latest......very strong effort 2 races back.....sharp recent bullet drill.....might move forward 2nd time out over the SA dirt surface.....versatile runner....capable on or off the pace....... and then there is that Baffert guy

7  The Lumber Guy   New York bred is 3 for 3 sprinting........4 for 4 in one turn races........and just worked an eye popping best of 78 bullet breeze.....right to be at best 2nd out after the layoff.........seems like a dangerous sort 

 

race 11    slightly above average clarity

2  Wise Dan   owned by one of the nicest horse owners and someone I know out of Chicago this 5 year old gelding has the perfect stalk/ponce running style and he is in a race without much speed

6  Excelebration    would own one heck of a race record in Europe if he didn't have to face one of the greatest horses ever in Frankel in about 1/3 of his overseas races.....no one close to Frankel in this field

3  Obviviously   gets what he wants and that is loose on the lead........hard to run much faster than 1:31:4 as he did in his last where he finally got away with a reasonable pace after setting brutal fractions in his 2 previous winning races.....very good front running rider in Joe Talamo who is having the meeting of his young life........might never look back

9  Moonlight Cloud   filly has faced the boys in France and done just fine.......4 year seems to be peaking at the right time and is trained by a very sharp overseas conditioner in Freddy Head

7  Wilcox Inn   best on firm turf so SA is a good place to be........owns 5 wins and one 2nd in races 1 1/8th miles or shorter since putting the blinkers on....ran 2nd and he was gaining on our top pick in latest 

 

race 12    slightly above average clarity

5  Game On Dude   5 for 5 at SA.....probably has never worked better.....and is the controlling speed in a race that doesn't have much of that commodity for this race of this caliber .......nothing against what Sutherland accomplished with this stellar runner but I think Bejarano is even a better fit and it showed in his latest

8  Nonios   3 year old has really developed into a very nice individual and it showed in his latest with a nice 2nd place finish to our top choice.......believe this Hollendorfer runner will even show more at 1 1/4 miles....and visually I loved his last work on 24 August......and the work time earning him a bullet isn't too shabby either.....believe best ever today

2  Flat Out   obviously a very nice Mott runner.....would have placed her 2nd in the picks if it wasn't for her low win % the last 2 years 3 for 13........still he should be very dangerous in the late stages of this race

10  Ron The Greek   toss out last......off track.......in the rest of 2012 this Mott trainee has been a very stout relable late runner who appears to want to run all day......connections will have their fingers crossed that a legit pace developes

11  Mucho Macho Man   another who appears to be peaking at the right time......Mike Smith sure has been a nice fit on the back of this 4 year old colt since picking up the mount 2 races back.....should sit close in an affair that seems to favor the front runners somewhat

 

 

 

 

[/private]

Posted on November 2, 2012 at 8:50 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information