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Santa Anita for Saturday 6 April 2013

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When a card is as good as this Santa Anita Derby day card is I don't even mind having a losing day. (Well at least don't mind as much.) But I don't anticipate that happening as I sure like this card.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    slightly below average clarity

2  Brave Act    strong layoff run in latest (1st ever on the sod and down the hill) especially pace wise........with that race under his belt and a switch to the meets leading jock he looks tough here from the get go

8  Meyden Magic   Julio Canani is an excellent turf trainer but has a dismal record with 1st timers.......but........the work regiment for this 1ster are very impressive....... and........everybody likes to win on the big days of a given meeting and SA Derby Saturday sure qualifies

4  Tribal Dude   trainer O'Neill has woken up in a big way of late.......change in jocks to an outstanding grass rider in Gomez.........and this colt's lifetime best (by a wide margin) is his lone effort on the majestic SA hill grass course 

1  Single Launch

 

 

race 2    average clarity

7  Eula B.   plenty of early gas in this affair can sets things up nicely for this late runner.......she did toss a clunker in last but has rebounded off of a bad effort in the past and did it changing riders to Espinoza.....hmmm

11  Cherry On The Cake   nice win off of the claim by Hollendorfer and he spots this mdn20K winner very realistically in this low level condition claimer........and Bejarano/Hollendorfer are an incredible 14 of their last 20 as a team......yikes

4  Metaxa   seems to be on the improve and might move forward again........that is the positive......the negative is that this mare has been a "lead type only" so far and has many speed types to contend with here

6  Lady Fairbanks

Long-shot Possibilities:    1  Pretty Wonder     laid up filly sure is working like she is meant and ready for a micro outfit who is doing OK with limited starters (4 0 1 1 ) at the meet......filly won her debut so she is capable fresh........filly is 1 for 1 on conventional dirt with the blinkers off as they are today

 

race 3    slightly above average clarity

4  Declassify   expensive 1st timer is training great for Mr. Bob Baffert on Santa Anita Derby Day........enough said

8  Dover Crazy   Ellis 1ster is training nicely and he is using his go to guy of late in Victor Espinoza.......mom has tossed 6 winners from 7 starters 2 of which are Stakes winners

3  Mr. Sexy   flashed significant early speed in last (extremely fast 2nd quarter) in his 2nd lifetime endeavor.........sharp improved work tab since......rather sure moves forward today........cut back of 1/2 furlong should be a plus

6  Scully

 

race 4    slightly above average clarity

4  Perfect Set   fell off some in last on a "good" turf course.......ultra impressive race on firm turf 2 races back and it is disguised by a brutal trip......I have 9 lengths of trip trouble in my log book.....Prat rode that day.......Bejarano rides today.......that'll do

2  Buckleberry Grey   par like sprint turf race in last.....and now this Cecil runner is training quite a bit better.......and this colt gets a good post and jock for today's 1 mile on the sod

11  Cacau    broke slowly and rushed early and rightfully tired as almost any 1st timer would attempting a turf route in their MSW debut........showed enough early gas that stellar speed jock Maldonado might clear all or most here if of course he breaks cleanly........big recent 6F gate drill is very reassuring he is sharp 

6  Joelito

Long-shot Possibilities:    1  Cool Roger   checked hard in last or would have been much closer at the wire.....sharp near bullet 4F work since.......shot to upset the apple cart here with a clever ground saving ride by T C Baze.......good post for a decent grass jock to get that accomplished

 

race 5    above average clarity

6  Beholder   very ratable superstar filly sure appears to have a spot like her last where she will be able to cut very reasonable fractions making her awfully tough to catch especially with world class jock Gomez on her back

4  Fiftyshadesofhay   will need better than her last and must accomplish it with a negative 3lb. swing in weights ......most likely will try to chase and ponce in the stretch like last time.......works are improved so maybe she is sitting on her best ever....she will need to be

2  Spellbound    2 for 2 since the blinkers were added........won off pace despite a ridiculously slow pace up front in her last.......will need more pace than anticipated here to be a factor late especially at equal weights

 

race 6    slightly above average clarity

2  Wilkinson   significant wake up in last and it is somewhat hidden be a wide trip......2 of this horse's last 3 1 mile grass races are par or better for today's race level

5  Willyconker    big rebound effort in last (which of course we predicted as our top selection) and gets 3 lbs off here and retains Gomez......trainer is suddenly winning at a high rate after not doing much (by his standards) for most of the SA meeting

7  Fed Biz   decent 1st ever on the grass in last.......Baffert colt has won his last 3 times he raced in non Graded races which is the case here

4  Tigah

 

race 7    slightly above average clarity

8  Jimmy Creed    all about "race shape" here.........Mandella's Grade 1 winner will most likely chase our dangerous 2nd choice and try and run him down in the stretch with regular rider Garrett Gomez aboard

2  Comma To The Top   what a good spot here for this ratable speed gelding who most likely need to be caught and be caught with a stout speed jock up in the name of Edwin Maldonado

3  CampVictory   ran well in this Grade 2 last year and did it off of 5 months and 2 days rest.........5 months and 3 days rest this time.....and once again owns a work regiment that says he is fit and ready

 

race 8    average clarity

3  Sarach   three year old is on the right end of the learning curve and her latest is somewhat hidden by a wide trip......Madella is hot......Espinoza is hot..........filly is bred nicely to appreciate today's 1 1/8 mile turf distance

6  Scarlet Strike   another on the right end of the learning curve and Hollendorfer finally puts his go to guy up in the name of Rafael Bejarano (see comment on no. 11 in the 2nd race)

5  Birdlover   likely to grab the lead here with a good speed rider up for a resurgent Doug O'Neill......very dangerous gate to wire prospect here

8  Flashy Ways

 

race 9    average clarity

3  Power Broker   brutal trip in Grade 1 last Sept. and won by 6 lengths.......and even worse trip in B C Juv. on Nov 3rd and only lost by 5 with about 11 lengths of trip trouble by my account.........laid up 5 months but training like he is ready and draws the meets top gun in Bejarano

1  Flashback   sat close to a nasty pace in last and still almost pulled off his 3rd consecutive lifetime win.......gets Gomez up today which to me is a slight upgrade in riders from Leparoux.......and continues to train like a happy healthy individual for Bob Baffert

5  Goldencents   colt has done little wrong in 5 lifetime starts and trains as if he will be competitive once again......and his trainer Doug O'Neill is all of a sudden is firing on all cylinders

6  Super Ninety Nine

 

race 10    slightly above average clarity

9  Oliver's Tale   powerful MSW win off of the extended hiatus from racing in his 2nd lifetime start.......2 reassuring works since.....trainer makes the most out of his limited starters every year

4  Points Offthebench    very solid efforts/figs in last two endeavors.......capable of setting a sizzling pace and still hanging in there.....very few are.......nice preparatory works......and a rider upgrade

10  Wall Dance   connections will have their fingers crossed that our top two picks press each other into a suicidal pace so that their late runner will be able catch them in late stretch

6  Tummel

 

race 11  slightly above average clarity

4  East Sky   let's see......this runner was our 2nd choice at 22 to 1 with Joy Scott up  and he ran 2nd to our top pick (for one of many COLD exactas The Racing Digest has hit this meeting) for the tune of $78.60.....and now Bejarano is up........a no brainer for top pick

9  Russel's Run   very solid maiden breaking grass fig in latest and it was his 1st ever on the sod and at today's distance.....last fits well here.....more would be icing on the cake

3  Square Dancer   grass effort/fig two back is too weak here.....but.....his race on the off track in last is very strong.......loses Bejarano to our top pick but gets Gomez.....that'll do

2  Bio Pro

1  Affrettando

7  Warren's Rail Bird

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Posted on April 6, 2013 at 9:55 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information