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Churchill Downs for Saturday 4 May 2013 Kentucky Derby Day

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Not as enamored with this years Kentucky Day (where we crushed the card) races as we were last year but the card seems good enough providing the track plays fairly even despite all the rain in the forecast.

 

Race 1    slightly above average clarity

3  Glamour Puss   done little wrong in 5 lifetime starts........2 for 2 at today's 6F distance........and the jock has been ever so hot in Kentucky

1  Apropos   on the correct end of the learning curve......learned to rate in latest and the effort was most impressive.......stout if if she manages to duplicate the effort

6  Honey Hues    rain in the forecast and this Flint runner seemingly appreciates an off track......very impressive 1st work since arriving........a 2nd best of 30 5/8ths breeze.....jock is 2 for 2 on the filly

 

race 2    slightly above average clarity

Slan Abhaile   solid MSW debut.....then a solid forward move in his 2nd lifetime endeavor......and the race was at today's somewhat sprint specialty distance of 7F.......powerful works hint this Dale Romans runner loves the CD surface (at least fast CD surface)

6  Our Double Play   very strong race running off the Kee AW to the CD dirt......Kee main track race in last.....CD main track race today.....handles moisture in the racing surface....a likely plus for today

2  Gombey Dancer   big effort/number 2 races back and the stellar work tab so far at CD hints he can rebound to that strong effort

1  River Rocks   ran on a suspect inside on the synthetic at Kee in last and rightly tired.......won 2 straight by daylight previously......1 for 1 at today's 7F furlong distance

 

race 3    average clarity

1  Old Time Hockey   Proctor runner seems poised for a rebound with a layoff run under his belt.......very strong better than par effort 3 races back and it is somewhat hidden by a poor trip.....and it was at today's distance.....solid rider/trainer combo thru the years

6  Screenplay   6 year old gelding is 3 for 4 on the CD grass.........6 for 13 at the distance.....and gets the hottest jock around on his back in Joel Rosario......that'll do

3  Atigun   amazing this quality runner still is eligible for a nw3 alw race.......not so hot on the grass in only race on it but it was run early in the developmental stages of his career.....deserves another shot with his decent grass pedigree

5  The Pizza Man   stout Illinois bred has found the winners circle 7 of 8 races on the sod and has handled softer ground.....would have rated higher if his rider didn't own such a low win % in the lawn

 

race 4    slightly below average clarity 

5  Bama Bound   trainer likes to fire in 2nd lifetime starts....with that in mind his last looks like a solid tune-up to be tightened and ready on the day every likes to get to the winners circle.....Ky Derby day

12 Troubadour Tango   pounded at the windows in both lifetime starts and ran fairly well in both.......1st time this colt gets to run off of short rest.......combine that with the fact that Mark Casse is uncanny good with beaten favorites and you have a dangerous horse if he handles the racing surface

11  Mo Jo   nice 2nd last year changing surfaces from Kee to CD.....ran behind Ky Derby runner Frac Daddy.......same Kee tune-up to a likely full throttle go at CD here this afternoon

2  Indy Awesome   was on the improve and then tried the grass again despite a dismal showing on it in his MSW debut 6 races back......back to the main track.....distance fit which should help him have something left in this 7F affair 

 

race 5    average clarity

8  Code West    very powerful figs/efforts in 2013 versus this group and the 1 1/16 seems like the perfect distance for the Bob Baffert runner....the one to beat if he of course handles the racing surface

5  Brazilian Court   back to reality for the connections after this colt tossed a clunker at 84 to 1 in a Grade 2 in latest.....back to Joe Rosario today who owns 1 win and 4 2nd's in 6 mounts on the colt.....and this Mike Maker runner hasn't hit the board in 4 other lifetime mounts with others riders

4  Bellarmine   did little wrong in 3 lifetime starts on three different surfaces......that seems to bode well for whatever rated main track we get today at Churchill

3   Perfect Title   deep closer will can roaring home late if he cans significant pace up front or if the track is tiring......and maybe the addition of blinkers today will get him to sit in closer contact to the field early on

 

race 6    average clarity 

4  Ghost Is Clear   vastly improved runner since Maker claimed for chump change......and stellar history for this gelding back in short rest........8 days sure qualifies for short rest to say the least

3  Regally Ready   has the right to move forward 2nd out after the layoff and possible be what he once was.......a stout 5f to 6f grass sprinter

8  Icon Mike   6 for 9 in the win column in short grass sprints.......and working great......would have been top pick with a better post.....the race starts awfully close to the turn and really hurts outside posts

2  Havelock   nice grass sprinter at 5 1/2 furlongs or more.....will need plenty of pace to get up in time in an abbreviated grass sprint of 5F.......does get an outstanding off pace grass rider in Gomez

 

race 7    slightly below average clarity

6  Aubby K    solid awakening in last off of the extended layoff........might be poised for her best off of the effort......good chance to get a nice stalk position behind our 4th pick

7  Burban   3 wins and a 2nd in 4 races at Churchill Downs........also can find herself chasing a somewhat suspect leader in the no. 1 horse

2  Rumor   would have been top selection if this race was 6 1/2 furlongs or less.....she needs to avoid flattening out at 7 furlongs......sharp classy trainer in Mandella to get that extra 1/16th out of her

1  Jamaican Smoke   four year old filly looks loose in this spot and if the rail is decent she..............might..............go...............all..................the......................way

 

race 8    slightly above average clarity

5  Hungry Island    used a mile grass race as a stepping stone to win this Grade 2 race last year which was run on a good turf course.....her last race was a mile at Kee and today's race will most likely be run on something less than firm....trainers are often creatures of habit and wisely so.

8  Marketing Mix   SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE   

6  Stephamie's Kitten   2 for 2 on grass rated less than firm and both grass affairs were run at today's distance of one mile.....off since October but runs well fresh

 3  Daisy Devine    good early speed and handles yielding turf quite well.....and will stalk a runner if need be......very likely to be in the hunt from the get go with the advantage of a ground saving trip

 

race 9    average clarity

6  Pass The Dice   very solid prep race for today's major league affair......2 for 2 at Churchill and the preparatory drills on it's conventional dirt surface suggest this Wayne Catalano runner welcomes a return to it's surface

5  Unbridled's Note    also 2 for 2 on the CD dirt with one of the wins coming in the slop.......in general this Asmussen colt is an ulta consistent hard trying sort.......my guess is that rare trait doesn't change today

9  Delaunay  3 for 3 on the CD main track.....very dangerous speed but will need to avoid a suicidal speed duel with the 8 horse

Hierro   2 for 2 on the CD dirt........7 furlongs seems like a good fit.....and this Pletcher colt  has handled an off track in his past which might come in handy on a day with about a 70% chance of rain

 

race 10    slightly above average clarity

8  Wise Dan   best mile turf horse in the Country shoots for this prestigious Grade 1.......and if he runs the 1 1/8th miles on the grass as well as he has on the main track he will be every bit as formidable at 18th more on the grass

3  Optimizer   moves up on grass with a little give to it and.......gets a major rider upgrade to the cream of the crop of late in Joel Rosario

9  Point of Entry   SCRATHED OUT OF THE RACE

4  Silver Max   best early gas in the field and this colt is at his best off of relatively short rest and 5 weeks sure qualifies for relatively short rest for a Stakes runner

 

race 11    average clarity (as Ky Derby's go)

5  Normandy Invasion   powerful late runs in all 4 lifetime route races.......and.......very impressive in the Wood. closing into a very lackluster pace.....working at CD as if she appreciates the surface.......off going is a ? mark as it is for most in this field of 19

8  Goldencents   best races by far of the Derby contenders were put in by this O'Neill runner.......sizzling unsustainable pace 2 back and only lost by 2 1/4 lengths.....and then won the SA Derby in the kind of pace that few can handle and still win at 3......so the question is can Krigger slow her down enough (she can sit off of it if he chooses) to last the 1 1/4.......and/or can she handle an off track if it arises

3  Revolutionary   on the right end of the learning curve and he did a John Henry imitation in the Withers in the way he maneuvered and split horses in late stretch....very game......and a like the pedigree to get the distance

16  Orb   3 for 3 since going on lasix......and 3 for 3 in two turn affairs......impressive wide run to win the Florida Derby.....and gets the red hot Rosario to ride

 

race 12    average clarity

7  Wild Target   laid up Kenneally charge sure got good towards the end of last year......and she training as if she is meant and ready fresh off the bench.......and if it is off that might be a plus

2  Rightfully So    seems to greatly appreciate extended one turn races from 7F to one mile.....likes Churchill and has handled a muddy track winning in his only effort on one

6  Looking Good   SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE   colt has improved a lot this Spring......Alan Garcia is back aboard and he is 2 for 3 on this colt.....and the colt is 0 for 5 with other riders.......doubt this price shot is out for a tune-up

8  Bull Dozer   very consistent sort is up for a tag and placed well to win....1st ever on the conventional dirt at CD.....somewhat of a question mark.....has handled off tracks well

 

race 13    slightly below average clarity

8  Lifes Reward   big race fresh last February at FG.......fresh once again and sure is training as if she is all set to roll off of the 3 month layoff for Catalano

2  Seeking an Empire   just keeps getting better.......and better.......and better........and likely to today once again 2nd out after the layoff

6  Best Request   bad trip in MSW debut last which was at OP and still closed fast to snatch 2nd.....same effort with a better trip and he should contend here

5  Column    dangerous speed here especially with 1st time on Lasix and a rider upgrade

11  Moshaagib   colt has done little wrong in 3 lifetime starts in the good old U S of A since racing  overseas in Great Britain

 

 

 

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Posted on May 3, 2013 at 10:41 am by richs · Permalink
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