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Hollywood for Saturday 30 November 2013

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OK card this afternoon. Note that the first two grass races are on the turf and the last 2 are not.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

1  Designer   slightly suspicious drop down into claiming but away for over 1 1/2 years and training as if this gelding is healthy enough.......Baffert is quite good with these kind coming off of long layoffs and dropping

3  Tribe   seems like an overdo drop into claiming as this Gaines runner has hardly earned his keep in 2013 with a record of (7 0 01).....lone lifetime win came SA 6 1/2F turf to Bhp 6 1/2F AW.....and that folks is today's scenario 

7  Warren's Tyler S   checked very hard on the turn in latest or would have been 2nd (to a runaway winner) rather than 7th at this level..........new rider up for today

6  Proud Boss

 

race 2    above average clarity  (this race is on the turf)

6  Pablo Del Monte  Ward Kee invader trains and runs like something special and has a pedigree to appreciate running a distance of ground on the grass......should be in it from the get go and extremely tough if he handles his new distance and surface as well as I think he will 

4  Global View  decent 2nd lifetime start with a MSW breaking victory in his 1st grass effort.........that 6 1/2F grass win was off of a 3 month layoff so there will likely be more in the tank for today with a race under his belt......and this colt is bred to run all day long so the added distance seems like a plus

5  Aotearoa   not much in latest (maybe it was off Lasix --- back on Lasix today)......needs a rebound to his effort run two races back.......and for our top choice not to like the grass and/or the distance

 

race 3    slightly below average clarity

3  Botch   nice forward move in last for this Vann Belvoir three-year-old.......and the series of five works since seem quite a bit improved.......another move in the desired direction seems in the cards for today

7  Tahoe Flash  drops back to the 25K claiming level (from 40K).....and.......cuts back 1/2 furlong......both appear to be positive moves when examining this gelding's running lines

2  Derringer   one of those significant Mike Mitchell drop downs (50K to 25K) that are difficult to figure out how healthy a runner is.........toss a coin as far as this fellow is concerned

5  Too Fast To Pass

 

race 4   slightly above average clarity  (this race is on the turf)

5  Nesso   race two back fits solidly and I believe that is why the blinkers come off today as the horse ran great in her lone effort coming off the pace in 4 lifetime starts......combine that with two positives.....back on Lasix.......and gets 8 lbs off and I believe Garcia can make that weight or very close to it

3  Cleanor   3 for 3 on Lasix........0 for 4 without the controversial medication.......gets Lasix today.....sharp a.m. work hints this O'Neill runner has held her form....trainer won a couple yesterday

4  Love In The Desert   bad trip in latest (which was her 1st U S of A effort) in a race down the SA hill turf course......did well to beat more than 1/2 the field and did it versus the boys......1st at a route but bred well to handle the new distance

 

race 5    slightly below average clarity

2  Brando The Birdman    believe this Belvoir runner surprised his connections quite a bit in his Cal-bred mdn50K debut as he grabbed 2nd at odds of 26 to 1........that tells me this gelding wasn't all that tight for his debut and much more can be expected today.......and it is a good sign that the connections have stepped him up out of claiming

8  This Cat's Awesome   solid MSW debut and this Sherlock runner went off favorite in his MSW debut.........and he retains the very hot Joe Talamo.....would have been top pick if Sherlock had a better history with 2nd time starers......1 for his last 31

3  Sir Vronski   work regiment hints this Jeff Bonde first timer is fit enough to be ready to compete at a high level and possibly for the win

5  Lucky J lane

 

race 6    average clarity

this race is off the turf -- extra pick because of possible scratches

5  Brown Boss   last fits but ran a monster effort two back albeit on the sod.......but owns one win and one 2nd on the Hollywood AW.....seems very dangerous if doesn't scratch out

3  Volkonsky   on the right end of the learning curve and ran second in only start on the Hollywood synthetic

2  Shoer Hugh   dangerous runner here with the race being taken off the grass as he was purchased privately by stout connections after his last which was a solid winning effort versus 10K claimers on the Bhp AW

7  Soul Candy 

9  Apollo Ten

 

race 7    slightly above average clarity

3  Pray Hard   on the improve with every start and his last is disguised somewhat with a bit of a tardy start and running a wide (about 3.5L of trouble).....owns good early speed in a spot that early speed ought to be a plus

6  Oh Billy Billy   very expensive Cal-bred MSW 1st timer.......Bob Baffert trained........solid enough works.......mom has tossed 5 winners from 5 starters......that'll do

1  Mauco   not too much in last......debut 2 back is decent......recent works hint this colt has never been sharper.....and we get a rider upgrade and weigh off

7  Cousin Ricky

 

race 8    slightly below average clarity

this race is off the turf -- extra pick because of possible scratches

6  Insideondoutside   consistently decent sprint history on the turf or the AW.....plenty of heat in this affair ought to be a plus for his closing style.....1st out after the Miller claim is usually a good thing

5  He's A Dance Star   ultra consistent individual has only seen the AW once and it was a strong effort at Del Mar......fits very well if he can reproduce similar on the Hollywood AW....most that run well on the grass handle the Bhp synthetic and this fellow sure runs well on the grass

1  U S Citizen   was my top pick until the race was taken of the turf as he ran way wide in his last and still was only beaten less than 4L for the win.........1st ever on the AW and as stated above most that like the grass handle the Bhp AW

4  D' Obsession

7  Willyconker

 

race 9    average clarity

 8  Craeme Crackerjack   loves the Hollywood AW and it showed in his last.......excellent time for the day and the level so Jeff Bonde smartly steps him up multiple levels.....same or more seem likely this afternoon

7  Senator Bob   lead type only did extremely well to hang on for 3rd in last as he set fast fractions on a dull rail and had every right to tire late.....wire to wire shot if we get an even playing field today

3  Gilligan   invader is 4 for 10 on the Bhp synthetic......and he is 10 for 44 on other surfaces......sharp move by GG conditioner to ship on down and take advantage of the Hollywood AW maybe for the last time ever

6  Majestic Moment

 

race 10    average clarity

2  Soul Saver   vastly improved recent drills hint at an improved runner........and his closing style might be a good fit with 5, 9 and 11 likely to go hard early

9  Magic Daddy   $575K purchase 18 months ago hits rock bottom for Baffert and company.......owns decent early gas and obviously is dangerous if his health can hold together for one more race

5  America Rising   all 3 lifetime AW starts were won by horses that came back to win their next start and this runner only lost by an average of a little less than 2 lengths in those races.....would have rated higher if his health wasn't almost as questionable as our 2nd pick

3  Mary Helen's Storm

4  Copote's Royalty

8  On Holy Ground

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted on November 30, 2013 at 9:24 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections