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Santa Anita for Thursday 27 February 2014

Rain last night and early morning so that might make for a funky drying out racetrack. Watch for any bias that develops.  For Friday I studied for the races being taken off the turf and likely I will do the same for Saturday which only (wisely) has one race carded on the turf.

 

race 1    slightly above average clarity

2  Belonging   obviously a suspect drop out of MSW racing but Sadler sure is in win mode and this mare has only been able to hit the track to race once over the last 13 months......and the works hint she is probably doing well enough to compete at this bottom maiden claiming level

6  Silk in Silver   efforts/figs match up with the top choice but they were run sprinting........1st out after the claim by Baltas and the new connections see fit to take the blinkers off and try a route........significant rider upgrade........best early speed in the race.......average pedigree to get the 1 1/16th.......obvious top contender if handles the equipment change and the longer distance

1  Perfect Tango   improving but likely will need to take this somewhat by default........as in our top pick is "hurting" and our 2nd pick will be "gasping" in the late stages of the 1 1/16th affair

 

race 2    slightly above average clarity

2  Pray Hard   here is my fig work (adjusted for any pace and trip trouble) in ascending order relating to today's level of racing  +1a  par  -1a  -3.5a...........improving and one heck of a combo in Bejarano and Hollendorfer.......doubt we need to pray hard for this one

4  Patriots Rule   short on figs but big step up hints this Diodoro three-year-old is most likely doing well.......but more importantly he is the only deep closer in the field besides the 5 horse who looks in over his head 

3  Well Measured   good MSW debut win but most likely will need 2 to 4 lengths of improvement in his 2nd lifetime endeavor this afternoon......might be best if he tries to take back some and hope that the strong early speed of the 1 and 2 hurt one another 

 

race 3    average clarity   (if off the turf amazingly the same selections 1-3-2)

1  This Cat's Awesome   2 of 4 lifetime races on the main track are better than par for today's level and his pedigree is OK for the turf and the distance......and a good post and rider

3  Zackos My Man   rightfully tired after setting one nasty quarter in his 1st ever route and grass race in his latest......two sharp drills since.......Kayla Stra likely will be ready from the bell to slow this colt down and save sometime for the late stages.......should be in the hunt for the circle of joy if she accomplishes that task

2  Arctic Code   a little short in both lifetime races on the grass but................we go from a jockey ice cold to one that is not in Nakatani........and I like the 6F work put in since his last to help his endurance which has been suspect late in the stretch so far

 

race 4    average clarity

2  Londinium   2 for 2 on conventional dirt and 0 for 11 on other surfaces........and (5 2 2 0) at the distance on main track surfaces......seems likely to get a nick stalk to mid pack position and save ground at least thru turn one......should be tough if that scenario comes to fruition

7  Change of Plan   good history on conventional dirt.......Peter Miller puts them where they can win so the drop of a couple of claiming levels with a cheap four-year-old (whose last 2 races were restricted to four year olds) doesn't bother me much....should be tough with hot bug boy who teamed up for a easy win with this runner 2 races back

5  Newfound Gold   last fits and he is capable of getting a mile..........but can he do it back in 6 days.........we shall see

6  Anabaa Premium

 

race 5    slightly below average clarity  (if off the turf 6-1-7-5)

6  Lilly's Perfect   fell off in last in a nine panel grass race but maybe she really doesn't want to go as far as 1 1/8th on the grass........rebound to anyone of her previous 8 efforts would make her tough here versus a soft looking good

8  Love Tale   can finish well when almost everyone in the this weak looking field doesn't.......she normally needs a longer race to compete well but versus this group it might not matter

2  Bertie   believe this mare has been placed over her head because she has been running into shape and the connections didn't want lose her.....so it is gimme / gimme / go today on the drop off of 2 running lines that make her look too dangerous to claim 

3  New Hope

 

race 6    average clarity

1  Dreamy Blues   last was decent but what we really want is this fillies effort that she produced in her lifetime debut 4 races back.......and her recent a.m. prowess hints we will see it this afternoon..........change to the hot bug boy and hot with a 7 lbs. weight break

5  Thisonesforricky   ran like a mare who needed a race and only needs a logical move forward of a couple of lengths to compete for the win in this spot......hot trainer and the meets leading rider to get the job done

6  Sheza Dish   when last seen (in her 2nd lifetime start) way back in mid August she fired an extremely strong effort running wide throughout on a slight rail bias......did very well to only get beat by 5 1/4 for the win........needs to be ready fresh and she needs to handle her 1st ever on conventional dirt.....lookout if she does 

 

race 7    slightly below average clarity  (if off the turf 6-2-8-7-3)  extra pick with anticipated scratches

3  Stoney Fleece   five-year-old gelding has been rebounding since Sadler claimed back.....last two races both at 1 1/8th on the turf fit solidly here....and his record on the grass at today's one mile distance is good (8 2 1 2)

1  County Lineman   most impressive lifetime race was his lone effort ever on the grass and it was at today's distance...........laid up newbie for Cerin works as if he is ready

7  Magic Channel   3 of 4 U S of A races on the grass fit........nice layoff sprint grass win in last should have him fit for today's turf route........stout rider/trainer combo to say the least

2  Johnny's Choice

 

race 8    average clarity

5  Divine Way   MSW drop down has run 3 times for a $50K tag so why not drop to mdn $30K to score especially when this filly only cost $10K at sale..........and top gun (by quite a few wins in Bejarano) wants the mount

8  New Nature   wide trip somewhat hides a solid forward move in 2nd lifetime start and 1st start at SA........and the cut back of 1/2 furlong appears to be a positive.........A C Avilia sure has been in the doldrums for an extended period of time.......seems do to bust out

2  Very Thankful   solid par like debut (when you adjust for trouble) in maiden debut on the Bhp AW 3 races back.....not so hot in next two efforts both at SA.......but Carava might have made some changes to handle the SA dirt because this filly sure is training markedly better of late......we shall see

7  Precious Caroling

6  Tiz But a Dream

3  Majestic Gem

 

 

Posted on February 27, 2014 at 10:05 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections