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Santa Anita for Saturday 17 January 2015

Been quite some time since our top selection average over 5 to 1 which is the case today. Obviously I don't have to be right that often to have a good day this afternoon.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

8  Lambo Luxx   brutal mc debut.......poor start and ran wide.....and was up on the pace quickly after the slow start......youngster stays at the mc 50K level.........if Pedroza straightens things out today it very well could be graduation day

4  Hot Lightning   eventful trip in last........broke slow and rushed to be up on the pace and rightfully tired late for 2nd......Bejarano will be out to make amends and likely will be aided by the cut back in distance of 1/2 furlong

5  Royal Gambler   decent maiden debut and his trainer Caesar Dominquez is better with 2nd time starters........a factor here with a better trip and a logical move forward

6  Dr. Sauer

Long-shot consideration:   3  Swiss Brew   woke up in last his 2nd lifetime start and the effort is hidden.........broke slowly and ran wide on a rail bias day........drops and gets a significant rider upgrade.......danger city

 

race 2    below average clarity

1  Adellusion    Richard Baltas has had a good (wake-up) week.........four year old filly sure likes 6 1/2F (3 2 1 0) and might be on a rebound of sorts.......stout rider/trainer team in Bejarano/Baltas

6  Peppy Bolly   just claimed by Diodoro who wins about 20% of the time (with a monstrous sample of 240 claims).........most of this mare's career fits well at today's $12.5K level.......would have been top choice of she didn't tend to flatten out a little at 6 1/2F

2  Faith Proof   obviously a ton here if she doesn't "blow a gasket"...........she keeps being suspiciously put up for sale at a bargain price and crushing her foes..........seems like a 50/50 proposition that she has another solid effort left in her

7  Lust For Life

 

race 3    below average clarity

3  Fonz   runs like 1 1/8th is a positive and it likely won't be for many in this field.......and he retains top gun Bejarano.......should be motoring in the late stages

6  Warren's Wesley   trainer is good with the sprint-sprint-route angle (which is the case here) but on the other hand this six year old gelding isn't bred too hot to get the 1 1/8th........he is consistent so if he overcomes a weak route pedigree he should be a major player here

9  Broadcaster   benefited from getting loose on a rail bias in his mc win in last........but.........he might be feeling awfully good getting to run off of such an easy effort........... and his recent solid 4F drill hints that he is

5  Stolen Property

 

race 4    average clarity

6  Silk in Silver   ultra consistent speed route mare (who can chase) retains Bejarano who has won 5 of his last 8 mounts on the five year old mare who wings her front left.........which.........might be the reason the claiming vultures have been staying away

3  Chocolate Delight   away since March but takes a major plunge in claiming and does so off of a decent work regiment.......relatively new mom Kyla Stra remains up......so is it.......baby needs a new pair of shoes.....or......claim me please 

5  Nothing to Hide   average at best 11% trainer (2014-15) Blacker is at his most dangerous dropping a claimer multiple levels which is the case here........1st at a route is a question mark

4  Spirit Of Ten

 

race 5   above average clarity

8  Pepnic   last two races fit......won as our top choice in his last ranging up from the outside (close to a solid pace) down the hill and coming home victoriously.........I believe history can repeat itself here from the 8 post this time (10 post in his last)

2  Holy Lute   showed a ton of talent early in his career........so I believe the 5 month break will do him some of good......a.m. prowess supports this.......1st on the sod but bred for it

4  U S Citizen    wheeled back awfully quick but this fellow appreciates the Santa Anita hill grass course and O'Neill is better than most getting a given horse to fire off of very short rest......8 days rest in this case

1  Diamond Bachelor

 

race 6    average clarity

6  North Lake Tahoe   showed decent pace and run in mc debut last in what was not the best of trips.........blinkers on to help focus.....if the equipment change helps as intended this Koriner runner should be tough from the get go and with a good speed jock up

4  Tiz All That   on the right end of the learning curve and should appreciate 1/2 less furlong to travel today than in her latest.....and like our top choice she seems likely to be in the hunt from the opening bell

7  Top Estate    showed some run following a slow start in mc debut last........and his trainer Kory Owens is 3 for his last 8 with 2nd timers........and we get a rider upgrade to Pedroza..........mom has been a decent producer and his dad is one hot young sire 

2  Hot Surfing

 

race 7    average clarity

3  Rusty Slipper   should benefit from her last race as she had very little work put in prior to the start......and she should also benefit from a rider upgrade.......and last but not least she owns some early speed in a race lacking it and a good post in which to start

1  Blingismything    very strong stretch runner gets 1st time Desormeaux which is often very dangerous.........and the resurgent rider has a good post in which to work with

4  Nashoba's Gold   not sure that one mile on the sod is this Grade 2 winner's best distance and/or that she is fully ready to roll fresh off of the bench.......if I was I would have put her on top

2  Fanticola

 

race 8    average clarity

2  Sam's Sister   SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE TO RUN ON MONDAY   both lifetime races at Santa Anita (7F affairs) are very strong both in pace and final time and so are her SA work-outs.........1st around two turns but considering her pedigree and trainer I highly doubt the transition will be a problem

3  Lexie Lou   consistent and very proven at a route of ground on the turf and the AW.......but she still needs to prove herself this afternoon on convention dirt or would have been top pick

4  Thegirlinthatsong   deep closer likely gets plenty of pace up front to flatter her late push.........if a stout pace does occur and our 2nd pick doesn't take to the SA surface she has a shot to upset the apple cart

5  Jojo Warrior

 

race 9    average clarity

3  Weekendwithbernie   been away since August but training as if he is ready fresh.......bred to handle the green carpet and his last run at a much lower level on the AW at Dmr is much better than appears in print

1  Badasmywifeletsmeb    race lacks early speed and this Abrams runner appears to have the most......and he seems to be improving slightly with age.....and we get a rider upgrade

7  Fort Caddy   just fired best ever in last albeit in a sprint on the dirt......but his lone route turf race is decent and he has a more accomplished grass rider up today than he had that day

10  Itsgettinhotinhere

9  Papa Z

2  Ace Duece

Posted on January 17, 2015 at 10:29 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections