Santa Anita for Thursday 19 March 2015
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So so race card to start the new week. Best of luck as always!
race 1 average clarity
4 Midnight Lady over her head in last........back to the level where she won two races back.....seems likely to get a good trip stalking or sitting mid pack and with the runaway leader in the jockey standings aboard
5 Incredible Journey should be able to finish OK when others in this affair seem likely to struggle in the late stages of the race
7 Acute Pedroza seems like a good fit with this five year old mare.......but she seems to need the lead to win and the lead won't be easy with Silk in Silver in the race.....although I believe "Silver" is declining
1 Chocolate Delight
race 2 above average clarity
2 Harmonic solid 4th in a Grade 3 at GG on the AW in latest........1st on the conventional dirt but bred fine to handle it.......deep closer should have little traffic as she has only 4 competitors to cope with
5 One Lucky Dame 3 decent lifetime races and one outstanding lifetime race........working well enough to produce the outstanding race this afternoon and if she does she becomes the one to overcome
3 Commute impressive winning forward move in 2nd lifetime start.......training since as if a another move in the desired direction is likely if she handles her 1st around two turns......bred fine for it
race 3 below average clarity
6 Majestic Presence multiple races on the dirt are significantly better than par for today's level including her last at today's 6 1/2 furlong distance......1st on the sod is the ? mark.......not great but OK pedigree for it
4 Sea Mona filly runs best fresh and she sure is training as though she will fire a strong effort off of the 2+ month hiatus from her last race which was also down the hill and rather decent........and it was run off of short rest.......so logic says......... she should fire even better today "fresh"
1 Long Hot Summer 2 for 2 lifetime and sure moved in the right direction in her 2nd lifetime start.......away since August but working well enough to have a shot at remaining perfect if of course she takes to the sod which she is bred well to handle
race 4 above average clarity
5 Grandson At Last solid maiden debut is somewhat hidden by setting a decent pace on a slightly dull inside......most likely would have won by daylight if he had debuted on a main track that was more even......good reassuring 5F drill since
8 Cal Mclish significant forward move in 2nd lifetime start.........trainer has been very hot of late with his youngsters so this three year old might even show more this afternoon and if he does he likely will be the fellow to overcome
1 Talbot Road sure seems well prepared for his maiden debut but draws a tough post in which to start his career.......I think the fear of the one post in main track sprints in S Cal is overblown........but.........not with young horses especailly 1st timers
race 5 average clarity
( AE 10 Tigah seems like a major player if he draws in)
2 Wicked Heat race lacks speed and this gelding has some and with the meets top gun Rafael Bejarano remaining in the saddle for Richard Baltas........and they one tough rider/trainer combo
7 Empty Headed should be motoring late even with a potential slow pace up front as he is very tough at today's level number wise ..........and.........his trainer Jeff (all muscled up) Mullins sure could use a win or two........overdo to wake up trainer has this runner sharp in the a.m.
4 Ezio overcame a tardy start and a somewhat wide trip to easily win at the 32K level........and now he in for 25K?........hmmmmmmm.........claim me please.......or.......just wants another big chunk of the purse regardless of the claiming consequences .........seems like a 50/50 propostion
5 Delta Ranger
race 6 average clarity
4 Just Kidding best on the dirt and best at a route and gets both today........nice pick up mount for Smith with Nakatani not able to ride (spill last weekend)......last fits.........both in pace and final time
2 Smart Transition solid debut and John Shirreffs is much more dangerous with 2nd time starters........1st at a route but bred to run all day long
7 Wolf Man Rocket both lifetime sprints are better then par and his pedigree suggests he likely will handle two turn racing.......and his trainer Bob Baffert wins about a 3rd of the time 1st time he sends a given horse "long"
8 Moe Candy
Long-shot consideration: 5 Ghost of Navigator for me Ron Ellis is at his most dangerous and 3rd start after a layoff and that is today's scenario for this fellow......and.......no action on the board in either start yet doesn't drop today..........hmmm
race 7 average clarity
6 Tale of Papa Nick helllloooo turf.....big awakening 1st time on the grass for this Richard Baltas four year old filly.........1st running in a route race but sure owns a pedigree that should be able to get one mile on the sod.....nice reassuring 4F drill since her winning last
5 Chati's On Top very consistent grass runner (6 0 4 2) with few reasons not to believe she won't fire another solid turf effort......would have been top pick-a-rooo if it wasn't for his tendency to hang in the stretch
7 Heat the Rocks lone turf race in six lifetime starts was solid........in fact 3 straight races were solid until this filly tossed a clunker in her latest........needs a rebound
race 8 average clarity
6 Blame it On Tekela solid wake up in latest which was the 2nd out since Mulhall took over the training duties........and a bullet drill since (especially impressive for a mdn20K)..........same or better seems likely today
2 Joshie Hit a Homer turf route fit off of 3 consecutive MSW one mile grass races......drops to the bottom level maiden claiming........1st on the dirt.........not particularly bred well for it but the drop and the fact he has route fitness still make him very dangerous
3 Alston tossed a clunker in last and as the favorite but his effort two back (1st with Lasix) fits.........given ample time to recover and the work regiment hints he is ready for a top effort.........trainer is struggling but he is a dangerous 28% win with his last 60 "beaten" favorites
7 My Charlie
9 Empire Cat
8 Mighty Pleasing