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Santa Anita for Saturday 2 May 2015

Best of luck on the greatest day in racing. Kentucky Derby Day!


race 11 at Churchill Downs THE KENTUCKY DERBY 

8  Dortmund   big powerful colt can take substantial pace and so far he has shown will and staminia........and his pedigree for the surface and the distance fits this grueling race......6 for 6 lifetime  including an impressive win at CD at two.......definitely believe in the long run he is the best three-year old ......and hopefully he gets to show it on the 1st Saturday in May

18  American Pharoah   another outstanding Baffert colt but never had to face Dortmund or Firing Line or he might not be the Ky Derby morning line favorite.......then again he might be even a lower priced favorite......doubt Baffert has his 2 stars dueling and my guess is (60/40) that our top choice takes back some if both horses remain trouble-free in the early stages

10  Firing Line   yes another S Cal runner.....all three I have adjusted figs for pace, position and final time better than California Chrome and Shared Belief and I picked Chrome to win the Derby and I would have picked Belief if he hadn't gotten hurt........easy win by 14L in Sunland Derby.....says he likely feels great coming off such a stress-less effort 

15  Frosted   big awakening in last in the Wood with some breathing problems seemingly fixed and a switch in jocks....solid a.m. work since.....likely to get a nice mid pack position.....not impossible if the pace up front is fast

2  Carpe Diem   has hit some softer foes and had decent position in his winning races......but he did win them quite easily........Pletcher is 1 for 40 at the derby and will need top effort and a clean trip 

6  Mubtaahij   world traveler has plenty to prove but he sure is the unknown commodity to some degree.........and sure is a very smooth runner 



race 1    average clarity

6  Sir Barclay   two strong races last Dec.....those efforts fit solidly trainer (Steve Knapp) takes over and the way he has this fellow working hints it is rebound time today and at a price most likely

8  Shakahari   lead type only has other speed to cope with...... but careful because he just popped a 5/8ths bullet one week ago.....might be feeling really good

2  Magna Warrior   new horse since the fronts were taken off 5 races back (5 4 1 0)....make sure they remain off

1  My Slew    claimed and stepped quite a bit up by new connections........but better jock today and 2nd out after the layoff......not impossible


race 2    average clarity

7  Star Act  seems at her best 2nd out after a layoff and she just graduated at GG........reassuring 5F work since.....Van Dyke / Proctor seem overdue 

4  Miss Boom Boom   on the right end of the learning curve and Hollendofer is the trainer........a dangerous sitting closer than her last and that likely will occur today

3  Hug and a Kiss   blinkers on to try to awaken and bring out his Euro form which has been absent in the USA

1  Miss Lafayette   very wound up in a.m.....has hit track every 5 or 6 days since mid March.......likely very ready but distance is a ? mark


race 3    average clarity

5  Fort Cady   lifetime best in last and was pounded at the drill since.....trainer is hot........same or better might be in the cards for today

6  Saint Dermot   turf to dirt and a cut back in distance both seem good for this four year old gelding........and just worked his best drill in quite some time

7  Spin Forty   big step up.......needs best ever.......might be able to shake free early here and that surely might provide the catalyst for his "best"

1  Northern Iowa    last fits......Cerin is good 3rd after a layoff.......does tend to hang in the stretch

Long-shot consideration:   8  Follow Me Crew   turf tightener in last....big race 3 back....might get that race here


race 4    below average clarity

5  Catalina Bonita  might have really benefited from her layoff run in last as the drills are vastly improved.....and this is a good spot to wake up in and it appears to be a soft bunch

10  Positivo   showed some life last summer in 2 races one of which was at SA.......drops for her return to race wars seem to say she is ready off of the prolonged layoff

7  Stunning Taste  cut back in distance helps........ horrid race - OK race -  horrid race - OK  race - horrid race ????

11  Chatterly Lady   solid 4F drill (esp. for the level) following a dull debut.......might be gimme - drop - and go


race 5   average clarity

6  Richard's Boy  big improvement with the switch in trainers to Peter Miller in his latest....and .......the effort is somewhat hidden.....1 for 1 down the SA hill grass course

1  Diamond Majesty   not the best of trips in last two races one of which was down the hill......hidden some and just popped a powerful 5/8ths drill seemingly out of nowhere.....might be sitting on a top effort

3  Bench Warrant   two for two down the SA hill.....fell back  about 4L in the middle of her turf route in his latest......saddle slipped or something.....somewhat hidden

8  Win the Space   still a maiden but only was beaten by 2L for 2nd in Ark. Derby......OK grass pedigree


race 6    average clarity

6  Maximinus   what we want is a rebound to his effort two back........if we get that effort in today's lower level race this Baltas runner is the one to overcome

8  I Rock the Party   Tup invader for Molly Pearson is well placed to win.....race two back-breaking 1:16 flat level for 6 1/2 furlongs sure looks good vs. this crew

10  Sidepocket Champ   improved in last two with the blinkers taken off......and now we get a rider upgrade.....such a deal

1  Good Samurai   likely hurting to some degree but might have a race left in him

Long-shot consideration:   7  Italian Mirage   his only 2 "fast" track sprints with the blinkers on fit very well in this spot......and they are put back on in the a.m........well hidden potential talent


race 7    average clarity

6  Larry Birdstone   seemingly in good form and his lone race down the SA hill grass course is strong and it was run in his lifetime debut.......and today there is a much better grass jock aboard than rode that day......trainer is red hot especially on the sod

4  He Will   broke his maiden at 1st asking despite returning rather "green"......switches to the sod for 2nd lifetime start and I like his pedigree to handle it....solid impressive 6F drill since his debut win.....big potential here

1  Dead Easy  decent efforts down the hill.....Solis is waking up from the doldrums......not at all impossible here

3  Incline Village    might need to rename him Decline Village as he is a very good worker but just popped a dull drill.....but if the work isn't telltale he has as good a shot as anyone


race 8    below average clarity

10  Wynhurst   two dull races in 2014.......but this Baffert returnee is training like a totally different individual....should be tough if he runs to his brilliant works 

2  Iron Fist   all 3 lifetime races are 2 or more lengths better than par for today's MSW level....should be a major player in this spot even from the tough one hole at 6 1?2 furlons

9  Hook 'Em Kurt    10 to 1 in debut for an Ellis 1st timer hints the race was needed and it wasn't too bad of an effort.....more seems very likely today

6  Gravity Force   away since 6 Oct 13 but training sharply for his new trainer Baltas and returns a 1st time gelding.....dangerous sort


race 9    average clarity

2  Nowalking   awfully talented to take 8 races to break his MSW........and his recent 5/8ths bullet work hints that even more will be tossed out today from this consistent four year old colt router

9  Anxious Times  seems best on the dirt in routes......and likes the front end the on to help his early speed seems like a good move by Jeff Bonde

5  Arkenstone   works strongly suggest this laid up Hendricks colt is returning ready to roll........fits if I'm correct about my assessment of his fitness

7  Big Tire   in good form and likely will be in the mix late.....but......needs to overcome his tendency to hang in the stretch


race 10    average clarity

5  Catch a Flight  on the improve since arriving in the good old U S of A ffor Richard Mandella and company......last fits......more would be icing on the cake

9  Motown Men   vast improvement in last his 1st out following the Ted West claim....and worked a powerful 6F since.....very sharp....seems ready for today's big step up

2  Fury Kapcori    was his sprint tune-up at GG enough?......... because if it was this five year old of Hollendorfer's will be tough

6  Mystery Train   Darrell Vienna has woken up from the doldrums.......five year old ARG bred is very consistent on convention dirt (20 8 5 3)


race 11    average clarity

9  Seedsandstemsagain   should be prominent from the get go once again.....and I love the longer endurance building works for this fellow who gets caught in the late stages down the hill......believe he fires his lifetime best today

7  Unusually    solid 1st out on the majestic Santa Anita Hill grass course in last.......OK final time and displayed some decent early pace ......and the trainer is  good 2nd time on the lawn

6  Unusual Alex   1st timer has a nice grass pedigree and he is working well enough to be a factor in this weak looking group

11  Shanty Irish   par like run down the hill in last......away for 3 months but works hint he is ready and with a rider upgrade

8  Pay the Fine   strong race in last esp. considering he ran on a dull rail versus much better........but 1st turf is a ? mark with a so so pedigree for it

2  Moussed Up    nowheresville in Mdn75K debut yet moves up into MSW racing......working like he is still healthy.......barn might have tweaked something for the better


Posted on April 30, 2015 at 5:04 pm by richs · Permalink
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