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Belmont Stakes Day for Saturday 6 June 2015

Best of luck on this great day in American racing!

 

race 1    average clarity

3  Japan   on the improve with every start........geared down late in last and appeared full on run........4th different track today in 4 lifetime starts bodes well for his ability of handling the Belmont surface....Hal of Fame trainer at the helm

1  Stanford   Pletcher is an unreal 57% win on the dirt so far at the Belmont meeting.....last two races fit solidly here but both were run off of short rest........2+ months since his last today but a.m. work hints he is ready

5  Donworth   improving sort had a bad trip at Pimilco in his latest or might have won........colt needs to settle down some as he hasn't had a clean trip yet in 3 lifetime starts......sometimes a one turn route race can help his kind

 

race 2   average clarity

4  Tiz Shea D   needs a confident builder and Mott wisely puts him into an allowance race after 3 straight Graded Stakes races........cut back in distance appears to be a plus.........nice bullet work just 6 days ago

2  Wisecracker   trainer is red-hot and the meets leading rider (by a wide margin) is aboard........colt is improving and appears to appreciate coming from off of the pace.....made a big turn move in graduate in his last 

5  Gridley Here   last appears to be a tune-up to be ready on Belmont's big day.......major league rider upgrade.......and that rider is two for two aboard the four-year old winning both races by 4+ lengths

8  Smart Transition   SA invader exits a fast MSW heat where he won going away despite a wide trip.....not out of this

 

race 3    above average clarity

3  Competitive Edge   seems awfully solid here........Pletcher collt has crushed his competition by an average of 7L in 4 lifetime races and 2 of those races were at today's somewhat speciality 7F distance.....1st ever at Belmont but considering he has handled 3 different surfaces I doubt the newest surface with be a hinderance

2  March   Chad Brown three-year old hasn't missed a beat in the a.m since winning a Grade 3 at today's 7F distance......retains the meets leading rider.......off pace style has a good chance at being a good thing as there should be a lively pace in this affair

1  Ready for Rye   runs best with ample time (6 on more weeks) between starts and gets it today.......didn't get it in his last which was dull.......rebound seems likely today

 

race 4   below average clarity

1  Power Alert   not much speed for a Grade 3 turf sprint and the large field will compromise some of the trips of the off pace runners.....good speed rider aboard......trainer Brian Lynch is better when he ships than when he stays at "home"

4  Ageless   six-year-old mare took on the guys at SA in the B C Turf Sprint and only lost by 3/4's of a length......one for one at 6F on the grass......consistently makes strong turn moves

13  Mosler   could use a scratch or two or the post will be quite the challenge......just fired lifetime best and it was his 1st grass sprint and 1st on the Belmont grass......bullet drill at Sar since.......Mott is very reliable when he gets a given turf horse to work well

6  Something Extra    dangerous speed and Hall of Fame jock in Mike Smith in the irons.....one for one at the distance on the grass

11  Spring to the sky   back to Javier Castellano who won 3 straight on the six-year-old last summer at Bel & Sar.....2 for 4 at the distance

Long-shot consideration:   10  Channel Marker   powerful late kick......nearly upset the apple cart 2 back in a Grade 3 turf sprint at Keeneland......worked a solid 4F bullet drill prior to that race.......just popped another bullet 4F drill at CD just 5 days ago......sharp and dangerous

 

 

race 5   above average clarity

2  Wedding Toast   3 for 3 at Belmont crushing her foes in all three races........finished full of run 4 weeks ago in her Grade 2 Belmont win.......another 1/16 to run today sure appears to be to her advantage

4  Untapable   hard to argue with 9 for 10 in the win column when competing on fast rated conventional dirt tracks and 3 1/2 million in earnings

5  Princess Violet   will need lifetime best and for our top two choices to be a little off and/or receive bad trips

 

race 6    below average clarity

1, 1A  Entry   1A is not impossible but the no. 1 Coach Inge makes the Entry the top pick........big break thru in last......earned an awfully big fig at Aqu.......and since the race he has never worked better........distance is the obvious ? mark.......average at best pedigree for the marathon distance but at the rate Pletcher is winning at Belmont (48% with 44 starts) I imagine he will handle it

5  Effinex   much improved since Jerkens put the blinkers on this colt.......sure handled  the 1 1/4 distance at Aqu.......relatively fresh horse as this is only his 3rd race in 2015.......4 lbs less to carry today should help him get another 1/4 mile

8  V. E. Day   another Jerkins runner who I believe will like today's marathon.......layoff last was the tune-up for today.......back to Castellano and who won the Grade 1 Travers aboard the colt at 19 to 1 last summer.......should be motoring late

10  Sky Kingdom   (4 2 2 0) at the 1 1/2 mile distance......Baffert has him training awfully well......should be ready for another strong marathon run.....would have rated higher it it wasn't for such a nasty post at the mile and one half oval

2  Red Rifle   here's your obvious wire to wire attempt......3rd string rider for Pletcher but the way in which he has been winning you can't ignore just about anything he puts in a race

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Condo Commando   loves the front end.....4 for 4 when she gets a clear (loose) lead.....sharp recent 5F work at Aqu.......Rosario is starting to heat things up......rate it about a 50% chance he can get loose......sure seems formidable if he does

2  Wonder Gal   seems to appreciate the Belmont surface.......fell off in last but his race at SA two back is strong and hidden as she ran quite wide on a rail bias day.....might go off at decent odds 

9   Promise Me Silver   8 for 8 and she has won at 6 different race tracks.......so taking to the Belmont surface seems like a non factor......big step up for this Texas bred but seemingly never trained better and look who lands on the Bred Calhoun runner........Mr Smith

10  Light the City   powerful race 3 back would have a good chance at doing the trick here.....1st time racing under the guidance of the red-hot Kiaran McLaughlin.....eased in last but walked off......appeared fine to me

 

race 8    average clarity

4  Coffee Clique   arguably best ever was her lone race at Belmont and it was in the 2014 version of this Grade 1 affair.......trainer is at his best 3rd out after a layoff and that is the case here

9  Tepin    was our 9 to 1 top choice at CD on Derby day and she did not disappoint and she beat today's top pick that day.......might feel really good off a reasonably paced loose lead (little stress).....and she doesn't need the lead to win

3  Discreet Marq   consistent sort and especially so at Belmont....and the meets top gun is aboard a mare he knows quite well having been up for 7 of her last 10 races.....dangerous

6  Filimbi   one for one at Belmont and 5 for 8 at today's turf distance.......and worked a very impressive 59 flat B on the grass with the dogs up 2 weeks ago.....all systems go for another good effort

8  Ball Dancing   might be rated too low......consistent sort and with a deadly rider/trainer combo in Javier Castellano and Chad Brown

 

race 9    average clarity

6  Wicked Strong   major rider upgrade and training as though he is ready for a top effort.....seems likely to get a nice mid pack position in a race that should have a lively pace....believe he has a good chance to live up to his name this afternoon

4  Tonalist   hello Belmont.......4 for 4 at the historic racetrack......like our top selection he seems likely to benefit from what should be a solid set of fractions.......well proven in one turn route races

1  Private Zone    very rare race horse in that it doesn't seem to bother him going eye to eye with other speed horses.....thus he can set nasty fractions and not get stressed out.....2 for 2 at Belmont.....hard nosed rider fits this fellow well...... good luck to the owners as I know a couple of them....they are some sharp individuals

9  Honor Code   deep closer appears to be at his best in one turn mile races.....should be a major factor in the late stages unless there is an unpredictably slow pace up front

7  Bayern   the last two times this Baffert runner ran clunkers he followed it up with exceptional efforts........4 to 5 dead last finish at CD in last.......hmmmm

 

race 10    average clarity

2  Twilight Eclipse    gelding has been very consistent since in his last 7 all at 1 3/8ths or 1 1/2 on the grass.......something to prove at 1 1/4 miles but he has been sitting closer these days in his 1 3/8ths races so I have a feeling that 1 1/4 will be a good thing in this affair without much speed

4  War Dancer   appreciates the front end and seems likely to get it here.....and if he doesn't he still has a shot as he can run from off of the pace if need be.........such a deal

3  Finnegan's Wake   4 wins and 2 2nd's in 6 races on firm turf since Peter Miller took over the training duties.....0 for 4 on the Bel turf is a concerned but not much of one as Miller was not the trainer for those races

5  Big Blue Kitten   solid layoff run/win in a Grade 3 in his last.....trainer/rider don't team up too often but are quite dangerous when they do.......would have rated higher if there was more speed in this affair for this deep closer

8  Biz The Nurse    another late runner whose connections will have their fingers crossed that more pace will develop than there appears to be in print

 

race 11   The Belmont Stakes  above average clarity

5  American Pharoah    controlling speed.......very beautiful way of going.......that sure seems like a plus as far as getting the 12 furlongs is concerned.......and maybe more importantly I have seen many horses who run powerful efforts on standing water sloppy tracks get muscled up (similar to running off of a grass race) and run big efforts in their next out......and then of course you have the best dirt trainer on the planet in Bob Baffert

2  Tale of Verve   price shot loses Rosario but gets Stevens.....made up three lengths on our top choice from the 2nd call to the wire and did it with some trouble......will get ignored because he did it in the slop.....just worked a bullet 5F drill on the Belmont surface....a FAST surface

6 Frosted   big awakening in the Wood with some breathing problems seemingly fixed and a switch in jocks.......then he had a tough trip in the Derby (finishing 4th as our 4th pick)........solid a.m. work continues.....likely to get a decent mid pack position.....not impossible if the pace up front is fast

8  Materiality   did skip the Preakness which is a plus....but who did he beat in his 3 lifetime races?.......his best shot in my estimation would be to not challenge the favorite too early..... thus...... putting himself in the race when the real running begins

1  Mubtaahij   best pedigree to get the grueling 12 furlong distance for a three-year old in early June........won twice overseas at 1 3/16 in March supports the notion......trainer wins Graded races all over the world

 

race 12   below average clarity

11  Umgiyo   nasty post but might have enough early speed to clear enough horse's early as to not get caught too wide......gelding has been faces better and has a world class trainer at the helm

7  Tagheleeb   toss out last as he likes firm turf.....distance is a good fit....trainer is on fire.....good rider/trainer combo over the last two months

1  Powerful Instinct    appreciates the inner grass courses in NY......very solid trainer/rider combo.....and with a good post to get the job done

4  Town Extension   consistent sort might be best at today's turf distance....seems likely to save ground thru turn 1 and that is 1/2 the battle

8  Holy Invader   much improved since switching to the turf......won stepping up in last.....very big step up today but not that stout of a nw2 alw field

 

race 13    average clarity

8  Big Looie   big run in last in a one turn mile at GP both in pace and final time.......two solid works since.........should finish well cutting back from a one turn mile to 7 furlongs

11   Matterhorn   seemingly has run into shape....red hot barn......and his mid pack style might be a good fit as there appears to be ample early speed in this affair

10  Social Inclusion   blinkers back on......strong set of Belmont works.....equipment change likely is working.....danger city

1  Green Gratto    dangerous connections shipping into the Big Apple in Ben Perkins Jr. and company....toss out race two back as he broke thru the gate

 

 

Posted on June 2, 2015 at 8:14 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections