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Santa Anita for Thursday 22 October 2015

We are offering quite the bargain for a few days for purchase of full card selections for the 2nd day of the Breeders Cup at Keeneland on Saturday October 31st at a 30% discount or a cost of $24.50. That breaks down to less than $2 a race.

Call today a tale of two race cards. First half was difficult to decipher whereas the second half was rather clear cut.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

7  Small Town Shuffle   improving sort.......cut back of 1/2 furlong a plus......only mount of the day for Nakatani........outside bias last weekend.......a superfecta of good stuff

1  Derby Chatter   very solid work tab for the given level for this Richard Baltas MC 1st timer.......would have been top pick if I wasn't concerned about the potential of a dead rail

2  Redneck Crazy   last fits....race 2 back is very strong.......rider is ice-cold or I would have rated higher

4  Finnerty's Folly   13 to 1 in a 6 horse field screams that his MSW debut was a tune-up (and not a bad one at that) to drop into MC and be at full throttle for his 2nd lifetime endeavor

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Desert Madam    solid wake up in latest and her a.m. work since hints she might have exited her lifetime best feeling great........lone route race was OK and I believe she is a better filly right now than she was then

3  Quinnette   decent layoff run in last......can handle the distance.......and she sure is consistent on conventional dirt.....11 for 17 in the exacta.......usually stout trainer could use a win

5  Sadie Clare  needs to break better......4 bad starts in 4 lifetime races.......likely the one to overcome if she figures things out about exiting from the metal monster

 

race 3    below average clarity

2  Suavemente   both lifetime MSW races run in late spring sure look good at today's lower level.........running off of a 4 1/2 month layoff but the works are up to snuff and Jeff Bonde is 22% over his last 50 MSW to MC

1  Collect the Debt   MSW debut run in mid July fits fine at today's MC level........and Mulhall is quite successful MSW to MC....... and decent off of layoffs....... and also decent with 2nd time starters

8  B K All the Way   showed life for a half of a mile in last and then stopped badly in the stretch following a "steady" of a couple of lengths....seems to have benefited from the race as his 11 Oct work is vastly better than anything he has shown in the a.m. in the past

5  Star Express   woke up some in last......needs to build upon the effort......approximately 2 or 3 lengths

 

race 4    below average clarity

3  Hurricane Callie   by far seems like the most likely to hit the board....but ........seems to be developing the bad habit of hanging in the stretch........at least she only lost by a nose in latest following two straight races losing by a neck

6  Lucky to Win   sure like the work tab for this 1st timer.....but......Sean McCarthy has not even hit the board with his last dozen MSW 1st timers.....but then again......... he draws Bejarano who rarely rides for the conditioner......capable trainer might break the mold here

2  Roo's Valentine   MSW debut fits solidly.....last does not.......new rider for 3rd lifetime start.......rider/trainer have been a good combo of late

5  Olotta Shaken   off pace runner has trained better than she has run so far......blinkers off and a jock upgrade to Gutierrez who can do no wrong of late

 

race 5    average clarity  

( AE  9  Lamaan  has a shot if draws into the field)

6  Junior G Man   race lacks speed and this colt has some and adds blinkers today.......bug boy owns both of Art Sherman's wins at the meet.....and Ty Kennedy wired the field recently on the turf......decent chance to be on or need the lead here

2  Selection   2 of his last 3 grass races fit fig wise.....like his morning preparation for today's race......and the trainer is showing signs of waking up out of a slump......connections will likely have their fingers crossed that more pace develops than anticipated as to help out their late runner

7  Broken Up   even though this Mandella colt started his career in a MC30K I am still a touch leery of him dropping to MC 50K today following two good MSW turf races......should be the one to beat if I am wrong in my assessment

4  Madikwe   not much so far in career but last looks like an obvious gimme......and this is a soft looking bunch the kind of spot it wouldn't take much of a move forward to be a factor and the works since

Long-shot consideration:   3  Shortstormcoming    good works prior to MSW debut (went off 47 to 1 hinting at a tune-up and a decent one at that running a useful 111:2.......good works since.......OK grass pedigree......drops......lookout if this is where this three-year old was always pointed for.......  trainer is 1 for 1 at the meeting..............hmmm

 

race 6    above average clarity

6  Perfect Set   fits condition awfully well.....coming off of 2 straight alw wins.....facing significantly easier here.....basically needs to regress not to be a ton here

1  Limited Response   best at SA and it showed in latest....... big wake up in a race run 3 weeks ago.....sure like that he was able to put in a good 5F work since........something to prove running this far but not impossible to upset the apple cart if he can handle the added 1 1/2 furlongs

8  Ike Walker   on the improve.....only mount of the day for Espinoza seems significant.........chances are enhanced if the racing surface remains biased to the outside as it was last weekend

2  Preacher Roe   another on the improve ......and gets 1st time Bejarano........has a shot if the top pick has a bad day

 

race 7    above average clarity

2  Wanstead Gardens   the further the better for this Neil French grass horse and today he gets to run at 1 1/4........(4 2 1 1) on the grass running at 1 1 /4 or more lifetime.......and I like that Stevens stays with mount for a 5th straight time

5  Flamboyant   trainer has woken up in a big way the last couple of weeks.....lone lifetime race at today's 1 1/4 turf distance was a very impressive 3rd in the 2014 Grade1! Belmont Derby

4  Abbey Vale   telltale jockey change and upgrade to Bejarano who over the last two months has won 1/2 of his last dozen mounts teaming up for D'Amato.......3rd choice only because of 0 for 7 at the distance (7 0 2 2)

 

race 8    above average clarity

10  Devi Rising   his speed looks awfully stout in this spot.......last two times up for a tag led to wins......sure seems in a good spot to make it 3 for 3

3  Secret Command   just missed at today's level when last seen 7 weeks ago.......recent near bullet drill sure says he is ready off of the break and for one tough rider/trainer combo........and Desormeaux sticks around all day for his lone mount of the day

6  Alpine Luck   so so 1st out following the Keith Desormeaux claim......but he is 4 for his last dozen 2nd out following a claim......so......quite a bit more might occur this afternoon

5  Market Notes   best with blinkers and best at 6F or less.....gets both today.....closer might be a little compromised some by a lack of speed in this affair

8  Mr. Itkins   bad trip hides an OK effort in latest....reassuring work since......not impossible if gets a clean trip

 

 

Posted on October 22, 2015 at 9:03 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections