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Del Mar for Saturday 21 November 2015

Not too bad of a card handicapping wise. On the 1 to 10 scale of things let's call it a 6.5.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

1  Carlsbad Mountain   nice win at two notches lower in his last......and the a.m. work since says he exited the race in great shape.......(3 2 1 0) at the distance.......Maldonado won 3 yesterday and has a good shot to keep things rolling here

3  Luckbox Sam   takes the plunge and lately significant drop down types have been winning at a high rate (usually not my cup of tea as a play)......trainer has done well with limited starters (4 for 9 at the meeting).......might be in full win mode

5  Mistaken Identity   fits if his latest was a dirty me up 21 beaten lengths run.......cuts claiming price in half.......another (who in the H knows) multi-level drop

 

race 2    average clarity

5  Ace Deuce   gelding has had many very low percentage grass riders on his back until his last when Nakatani rode.......Corey remains up today........last effort/fig sure fits........same rider - post - distance today

9  At Ease   last two races on the sod are strong and disguised by a bad trips.......same effort and a better trip and it should be graduation day for this five-year old.....but he has a tough post and a low percentage turf rider up.....come on Alonso

4  Heat   should be in the hunt from the get go........very solid recent work especially for Barry Abrams who doesn't usually push them too hard in the a.m.

7  Zip the Monkey

 

race 3    average clarity

8  Dirt in Your Face   2 of his 3 route races are solid here........4 or 5 competitors in this affair are slow early so this colt seems to have enough speed to clear many in here and not get caught too wide on the 1st turn......should be tough if that occurs

6  Yoked   last off of the layoff and placed a little over her head looks like the tune-up for today.....1st route with Lasix......and 1st route on fast (as in ignore his route on an off track and without Lasix).....dangerous at a price

1  Ghost of Navigator   on the improve of late.......blinkers on for today and a recent bullet 4F work hints the equipment change has done some good......we shall see

3  Three Red Sevens

 

race 4    average clarity

9  Serbian Syclone  stout trainer/rider combo the last 2 months (5 for 12).....believe best taking back a little and that will be the tactic Espinoza will use here

1  Chips All In    like our top pick I believe this 1/2 million dollar earner will stalk the lead which should yield some stout fractions......(2 1 1 0) at the 5F turf distance

7  Boozer   Glatt is often at his best with laid up sprinters and that is the case here.....nice consistency for this gelding....12 for 16 lifetime in the money

2  Tizcano

 

race 5   average clarity

2  Rattataptap   about  1/2 of this fillies races fit solidly here including the only time she raced turf to dirt........turf in last......dirt today........red hot barn

1  Pica   poor winning time but did come home 1st going away at the wire in the sprint version of this race on November 5th........1st at a route and with a ? able pedigree for one.....but.....seems loose and loose with only 112 lbs on her beck with the 7 lbs. bug up....that's a dangerous scenario

6  All Star Bub   good history 2nd out after a layoff and that is the set up here.......jock could use a win

4  Prodicious Facts

 

race 6    below average clarity

7  That's a Lady   nasty trip in debut with about 8 lengths of trip trouble.....only lost by 6L........same distance and surface and a rider upgrade.......Sadler is cold and win-less......might get things jump started here

5  Deeds Not Words   last appears to be the MSW debut tune-up.....full go today likely and like out top pick with a rider upgrade

11  Jeremy's Legacy   invader from Ireland winds up in the red-hot O'Neill barn and draws Bejarano......dangerous

2  Tinderella

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Wheatfield   hello Del Mar dirt.....quite the jump forward 1st on the Dmr main track......fast final time and ran wide up near the pace.....that effort fits solidly at today's higher level

3  Stealth Drone   done little wrong on fast rated conventional dirt (6 3 2 1)........filly has won 3 of her last 4 taking back a little.....so I like the switch to Bejarano as he is likely to only go for the lead if he is handed it

5  Master the Blues   good layoff run in last........3 nice 4F works since......shot here with a logical forward move

4  Soul Flyer

 

race 8    average clarity

6  Star Act   might be at the mercy of the pace somewhat but this filly runs all day (2 1 0 1 at 1 3/8ths) and seems best on the Dmr turf.......like the switch to Bejarano on a late running marathon runner

9  Elektrum   believe the best animal in the race but I don't think she is at her best running further than 1 1/4.......and she has difficulty staying out of trouble.....still.....one dangerous four year old

2  Three Hearts   won this race last year....so....last likely was the tune-up and more can be expected today......seems most likely in the race to get a good trip.....likely sitting 1, 2 or 3 at the 1st call and saving ground

10  Personal Diary

 

race 9    below average clarity

6  My Secret Affair    big win last time he ran turf to dirt almost one year ago........turf layoff run in last........dirt today and with a 7 lbs bug boy up........should be in the hunt from the get go either on the lead or just off of it

7  Apollo Ten   on a rebound of sorts......good history with Bejarano up.........two strong works since his last which was a win at one notch lower

8  Secret Command   seems like a good claim by Periban and friends......takes a significant step up put his new conditioner has him working as if he owns the trump card for the five-year old gelding

2  Hadfunlastnight

9  I B Mike

1  Ferocious

 

 

Posted on November 21, 2015 at 10:08 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections