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Santa Anita for Saturday 12 March 2016

The last two times we had a drying out track (on 7 Jan and 6 March) we had a rail speed bias. So take note of the early races to see if that occurs again today. 

Nice card. Hoping the track isn't too funky drying out after yesterday's sloppy track where the last 3 races had to be canceled.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

6  Paschalitsa   very consistent since the blinkers were added and she is on the right end of the learning curve......significant weight off for today and her last with a smoother trip sure fits here........recent drills hint that she is feeling good

3  Sweeter Thancandy   easiest of efforts in latest winning by double digits with a hand ride down the stretch,,,,,should feel real good for today's step up running off of such a stress-free effort

2  Shh She's Ours   one win and one 2nd in two lifetime dirt races......has a shot to snatch the rail and the lead and that might be more dangerous than usual. See bold type comment above.

5  Casino Fever

 

race 2    average clarity  

(if stays on the turf   9-5-2-7)

9  So Sweetitiz   very impressive 1st ever on the grass in latest stalking a decent pace 3 wide......did well to snatch 2nd.......solid works since......Marty Jones has a good history with horses competing on the hill over the years

 

race 2    average clarity  

(if the race is moved to the dirt  4-9-11-7 )

4  Demonica   earned a better than par adjusted for trouble Santucci fig in last on the dirt at one mile......bullet speed building 4F drill since........seems like the most likely to grab the lead on the dirt and with a good speed rider up

 

race 3    above average clarity

5  Desert Madam   seems at her best racing at one mile on the dirt at SA which she gets today.....just claimed by Desormeaux and he makes a rider upgrade by putting his brother up.....tons the best in her latest running 2nd despite a bad trip......better trip by his bro this afternoon should take this affair

6  Abets Abet   filly seems to be in rebound mode.....last isn't bad and it was a win after all...... but...... what we want is her effort 2 back which was a very impressive bad trip 3rd ........step up of one level hints she might be up to that run 2 back

10  Individual Design   hasn't missed a beat in the a.m. since winning on New Years Day......same level......same distance......trainer is rather hot........would have rated higher if she had drawn a better post

8  Bayonet

 

race 4    average clarity

1  Angel Lane   on the improve and her latest is very stout dealing with the one post and a nasty pace to just miss graduating albeit on a sloppy track......don't have any stats to back this up but covering the Midwest (where it actually rains) for many years I observed that horses coming off good efforts on very sloppy tracks like this filly did tend to muscle up similarly to coming off a grass race......filly showed she can show speed from the one hole .......should be very tough here is she can run as well on fast dirt

5  Crimson and Gold   bumped and blocked in the stretch or might have graduated at 1st asking......strong 2nd best of 71 4F work since....same or better seems likely

2  Street Surrender   Dollase is very dangerous with MSW 1ster's working well and this filly sure is doing that......and mom has tossed 6 winners from 7 starters including a Stakes winner......a.m. work hints she's got some early speed......hardly ever a bad asset for a 1st time starter

8  Rizzi's Honors

 

race 5    average clarity

9  Magical Mystery   finished up strong work regiment with a 110:4 (yikes).....that says it all about this dangerous $350K Baffert first time starter

7  Seventh Sense   bet to heavy favorite in his MSW debut but got caught way too wide up on a strong pace......blinkers on and a switch to Desormeaux for 2nd lifetime endeavor......very dangerous 2nd time starter who should show plenty of early foot with the equipment change

6  Mucho Chrome   good move forward in 2nd lifetime start both in pace and final time......should be a major player from the get go if he moves in the desired direction once again today

14  Wise Curlin

 

race 6    average clarity

(this G1 race will definitely stay on the turf)

3  Bal a Bali   6 for 8 at the distance and well proven in Brazil when the turf course was soft to any degree.....love his 136:2 work on March 1st.....feeling awfully good and gets the kind of turf today that he can handle and a few in here will not

2  What a View   strong 1 1/8th 3L win on the grass in latest.....and the cut back of one furlong seems to his benefit.......sure like that Desormeaux knows this five-year old so well as this is 7th mount on him......and Kent has 4 wins and a 2nd so far when up on him

7  De Treville    talk about lucking out ......what are the odds that this Euro invader gets a turf course with some give to it in his 1st start at SA.....2 wins and 2 2nd's in 4 races in France where the grass was rated "soft".......1st Lasix doesn't hurt either

1  Om

 

race 7    average clarity

6  Smokey Image   total cruise control crushing his competition to make it 6 for 6 lifetime in his 1st ever at a route and 1st ever racing for Carla Gaines .....earned a very strong fig in doing so and carries 3 lbs less today.........continues to train like a very special three-year old Cal-bred.......hmmm.......when have we seen that?

7  Exaggerator    broke the 121 barrier and did so with a brutal trip......wide up on a strong pace......and he has been impressive in all three of his efforts at 1 1/16th.....must be quite the athletic type to handle 5 different tracks and both off and fast surfaces

2  Danzig Candy   big step up but Smith remains up .........and....... this youngster won so easy in his last couple that there should be plenty in the tank for today

 

race 8    average clarity

(if stays on the turf   5-9-1-11 )

5  Clear the Way   hard to split my 4 selections but this youngster gets top billing as he had a wide trip in last or could have been a factor at the wire in his 1st on the grass.........1st at a route today for his 2nd grass race and that is right in Phil D'Amato's wheelhouse

 

race 8    way below average clarity

(if the race is moved to the dirt   4-1-7-10)

4  Scatastrophe   tepid top pick.......not sure if he is ready to roll fresh off of the bench but if he is I like his chances to handle the dirt and get a nice up close ground saving trip

 

race 9    average clarity

1  Calculator   won his prep race for this G2 affair despite a year layoff and a horrid trip........two previous races are very strong including his 2nd to the Triple Crown winner where he was actually more impressive that day.......that'll do

8  Kobe's Back   ferocious late runner is starting to break better and that is making him a big factor in these Graded sprint races.......and Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens knows him quite well-being aboard his last 8 races

4  San Onofre   last was dull but he should be able to grab the front end with a reasonable set of fractions and that can go a long way in waking him up

5  Cautious Giant

 

race 10    average clarity

3  Donworth   done little wrong in 5 lifetime starts and appears to be the controlling speed here.....definitley a major factor from start to finish if he can last the 10 furlongs which his pedigree says he should

2  Melatonin   really took to route racing in last and has been working since as if the endurance building race has put some more ability into him.....and he gets in with 6 lbs less than he carried in his last.........rather sure he moves forward today

5  Effinex   proven at the distance when others in here are not.......good history with ample time between starts and gets it.....high weight has to carry a nasty 6 and 9 lbs more than our top 2 selections or would have been rated higher

8  Imperative

 

race 11    above average clarity

(if stays on the turf   1-9-2-7-5-4)

1  Lady Valeur   powerful 1st at a route on the grass to graduate in her last.........should be the controlling speed here......needs to fall off of form not to be very tough here

 

race 11    above average clarity

(if the race is moved to the dirt   2-9-4-5-1-3)

2  Sutton's Smile   ran 3rd in a Grade 1 on the dirt in last......faces quite a few turf types in a cheap Stakes race ......should be a ton unless slips off of form badly today

 

Posted on March 12, 2016 at 10:32 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections