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Santa Anita for Thursday 5 May 2016

For those of you planning on purchasing our special ($34.95) full card selections (14 races this year) for Churchill Downs on Derby Day this Saturday please don't procrastinate as logistically it makes in easier on yours truly setting up the emails that will be sent at about 6 p.m. central time on Friday night, May 6th. Thank you.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

2  So Heres the Thing    Scott Rollins starts very few but he has won with his last 3 MSW 1st timers (yikes!).........best looking work tab in this group.......especially like the 59:2 5F work at Slr one week ago.......very fast for a 2 yr old filly state-bred in early spring

1  Awaken Hope   two-year old filly 1st timer has been working since Feb. and sure appears cranked up and ready to roll.......and mom has tossed an impressive 9 winners from 10 starters and most of them preciously showed promise at two

3  Wild Cause   Mike Harrington sure knows how to win these early baby races and he appears to have this Cal-bred 2 yr old filly finishing up his work preparation sharply with two straight bullet works at LA

 

race 2    average clarity  (if off the turf 4-6-5-7)

6  Bert's Melody   3 for 3 on the grass when competing at 1 mile to 1 1/8th miles.......should be on the lead which she obviously appreciates unless the 4 horse gets speed crazy with the blinkers on today.....but.....I believe this mare is capable of stalking a suspect grass competitor which I believe the 4 horse to be

1  Evo Campo   2 for 2 on the SA grass course in turf routes rated firm........likely be firm today.......seems likely to get a nice ground saving trip sitting 2nd or 3rd behind our top choice.......and with the perennially favorite to win the riding title in Bejarano

5  Hiking   on the improve since the blinkers were put on 5 races back.....her last was her lifetime best (earning a better than par adjusted for trip Santucci fig) running quite wide and still winning her nw alw race......if there was more potential for a fast pace I would have placed her on top

2  Causeway Carolyn

 

race 3    average clarity

2  Gavination   better racehorse since switching to route racing.......lifetime best in last.....dueled in decent pace and still was only beaten by one length for the win.......very reassuring drill since.......likely loose here and considering how well he ran when dueling you would think he would be even tougher loose

3  Materialistic   beat our top choice in last but the race shape was definitely in his favor and doesn't appear to be today.....on the other hand the extra 1/16th seems better for him than our top pick-a-roo

6  First to the Wire   last is better than appears in print........1st time running as a gelding today.....1st time with the blinkers as well......and drops precipitously......and Puype is 5 for his last 7 with multi-level drops......trainer sure could use a good start to the summer meeting at SA as his winter/spring meeting at SA was sub par

 

race 4    average clarity

5  Saint Dermont   vastly improved in his latest first time running with Glatt as the conditioner.......five year old gelding is by far at his best at Santa Anita and that might be why Glatt passed at running him at Lrc....rested and likely ready to roll......see him stalking our 2nd choice

2  Commander Lute   if it wasn't for a brutal trip two back this Yakteen runner could have won 3 straight.......dealt with an easy set of fractions in his last and that led to an easy likely stress-less win......so....likely feeling good for today's affair

6  Native Ride    Sadler and company sure have this fellow working like they mean business following the extended layoff.......... although it does ring a small alarm bell that he is in a nw3 cond. claimer as opposed to a nw2 cond claimer

 

race 5    average clarity  (if off the turf  7-3-6-8)  

7  Nazareth   last four races fit decently in this soft looking field.....tends to hang but his lone win was down the hill....retains Bejarano who should sit close up in this spot lacking speed

1  Summer Lady   big awakening in last both in pace and final time........the improvement mostly came from a good break out of the metal monster which often isn't the case for this Miyadi filly.......and drawing the 1 hole doesn't make the break any easier for today....rider upgrade does help

2  Silver Mojave    hangs badly..... but....... if the #1 does break poorly this mare might get the lead which is a great position for a hanger to get......as in.......no one to "hang" on

6  Moonie

 

race 6    below average clarity 

7  Rizzi's Honors   not much in last but a very solid MSW debut two back both in pace and final time......went off at 33 to 1 in her debut and for a trainer in Blacker who does poorly with 1st timers......8 weeks off to get her act together.......dangerous speed type if she rebounds

3  Emmzy   1 of 3 lifetime races fits solidly for this Baffert three-year old filly.....it was her race two back......working as if she might rebound to it

6  Spindle   Miller 1ster is bred to handle a sprint quite well and is working as if he is meant and ready.......bug boy does well for Miller but not necessarily with maidens or would have rated higher

8  Waltzing

Long-shot consideration:   4  Warrior Vixen   caught an off track and ran better than appears in print in her MSW debut......beat 1/2 of her foes despite breaking slowly and running inside on an outside track.......two 4F works since at Slr and the latest was 2nd best of 26........likely tighter today.....won't go off at 30 to 1 like her debut but seems likely to go off somewhere in the teens

 

race 7    average clarity

7  He Will   two for two at SA on the main track with his lifetime best run in his last off of a long hiatus from the game......and the a.m. work since hints the same or better is likely today......and that makes him the one to overcome

5  Rocket Fuel   done little wrong in both lifetime starts with a 2nd and then a win both at SA.....hard to split our top two selections but I feel the 7 horse has more upside potential and more versatility

3  Signature Cat   needs contact to the front end but at what cost as this race has many that also need it........but trained by the ver dangerous D'Amato.....and has a nice history with Gonzo in the saddle

4  Tribal Again

 

race 8    way below average clarity

3  Nancy From Nairobi   tepid top choice has 2 wins and a 2nd in 3 one mile turf races.....not the best leaving the gate but sure looks smooth and competitive after the break........capable grass rider Abel Lezcano remains up for the fifth straight time......significant step up but deserving of if

7  Keri Belle   another who appreciates the 8 furlongs on the sod (5 3 1 1) and 2 of those 3 wins were at SA.....seems best taking back some and that is the tactic Alex Solis took in her last two races which were rather good

1 Her Emmynency   very impressive grass runner for Stidham......2 races with Mulhall as the trainer aren't as good......maybe she has had this filly long enough now to know what she needs......we shall see

10  Havanna Belle

5  La Berma

6  Elektrum

 

 

Posted on May 5, 2016 at 5:52 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections