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Santa Anita for Saturday 7 May 2016

Hope the track returns to fast and plays even as this is a decent card at Santa Anita.

Best of luck as always!

 

The Kentucky Derby race 12 at Churchill Downs

17  Mor Spirit   3 wins and a 2nd in  4 route races on fast tracks......and not too shabby in his other three races running 2nd....Stevens should be able to get on over and save some ground and sit somewhere between 4th and 6th with many deep closers in this Ky Derby .........more than I can ever remember......ironically this Baffert three-year old has never faced Nyquist.....he does today and it might be a battle come late stretch

13  Nyquist    obviously has done nothing wrong going 7 for 7........but twice last year at 1 1/16th he was flattening some late.....and then in winning the FlaDerby he was drifting badly late......might be......I say might be......vulnerable at 1 1/4

20  Danzing Candy   owns the best early speed in the field by far so the post doesn't bother me much.....and I doubt the connections for Nyquist want to press the issue too early or they too will come up empty late......and loose on the lead (if reasonable) with Mike Smith up is a dangerous proposition

14  Mohaymen   might not have cared for the off track (I did pick Nyquist to win the FlaDerby) and was caught wide anyway giving him little chance to strut his stuff.....way overbet in last......likely an overlay today

3  Creator   believe the best of the 12 or 13 in here that like to come from far out of it.........mostly because by my book he has the best pedigree to get the 10 furlongs of anyone in the field

11  Exaggerator   won the SA Derby for fun but it was on a rare off track at SA......and his other two races on off surfaces are good as well.......has something to prove on a fast track......not out of the picture but definite my 6th selection

 

race 1    above average clarity

4  Anola Gray   one of the most impressive debut runs for a 1st time starter you will ever see........especially so for a three-year old filly Cal-bred.....two for two lifetime seems highly likely for this promising filly

7  Shy Carmelita   double barrel action for D'Amato as he also trains our top selection.......toss out last in the slop (sloppy again?) .....previous two races are solid and both hidden by tough trips

1  Rosarita   might get a nice ground saving stalking position behind a lively pace.....thus.....setting things up for her down the stretch

5  Bako Sweets

 

race 2    average clarity

7  Boy Howdy   very aggressive work tab for this Bill Spawr 1st timer........very tightly spaced drills with quite a few of those drills being quite good.......rather sure this colt is ready to roll

3  Lucky With You   Victor Garcia has been in the doldrums for quite some time but might jump starts things here with this three-year old gelding who has a work regiment that strongly suggests he is meant and ready for his debut

6  Monterey Shale   another 1st timer that appears ready for his MSW debut.......and Gaines gets Bejarano to accept the mount

2  Tengas Ransom

 

race 3    average clarity   (if off the turf  4-2-1)

5  Triatan's Trilogy   by far at his best down the majestic SA hill turf course........and amazingly he is the only competitor who has ever been on the grass.......how weird is that for a three-year old grass Stakes in May

4  Eric the Trojan   might be a nice claim by Carava and company of an improving three-year old....very strong effort in the slop in last......good pedigree to take to the sod.....not impossible here if he does

2  Mr. Opportunist   most likely leader if he handles the turf....and his breeding for it is decent.......dangerous speed here

 

race 4    average clarity

6  Watch Me Now   last endeavor might do the trick but what we really want is her debut which would be very solid in this spot with a better trip than she received that day....broke slowly and ran wide and still managed a close 3rd

9  Flaming Vixen    Baltas/Bejarano with a runner placed where they belong has been a dangerous proposition for a long time.........lifetime best was her last her 1st at SA .......should be a major player

4  Marriedtoaminister   up the track........up the track.......vastly improved 6F work.......drops out of MSW for 3rd lifetime start.......hmmm

8  Dorothyroseblanche

 

race 5    above average clarity     

4  Karma King  has won turf to dirt in the past and that is the set up for today's race.......dynamite race 2 back......a ton if up to it today......and the turf to dirt scenario hints he is

1  London Legacy   sure appreciates the SA dirt and appears very sharp right now.....so this appears to be a good claim and a decent spot for Spawr to get the most out of his new shooter

3  Limited Response   just claimed by Mullins and right away he makes a rider upgrade.....and considering he is a trainer upgrade one would think an improved effort is possible (and necessary) this afternoon

 

race 6    average clarity   (if off the turf  2-4-9-3)

2  Trifecta   1 1/8th on the grass is a good fit especially coming off three grass races that were quite a bit further......should have plenty of endurance when push comes to shove

1  Te Rapa   eight year old gelding shows signs of rebounding and look who is aboard........Mr. Bejarano..........good post should lead to a decent mid pack position........owns some back numbers that would take down this race

3  Macro Access   believe this Paul Lobo five-year old will win this if he repeats his latest........but.......he has something to prove when he doesn't run fresh......not fresh here.....needs to break the mold

8  Freddies Dream

Long-shot consideration:   9  Bandido Too   new trainer in Knapp today and right away he takes the blinkers off......and man has the a.m. work imprved........have a feeling Knapp has the trump card for this fellow......we shall see

 

race 7    below average clarity

2  Seaquet   between the drop down in maiden claiming and the fact her endurance might be enhanced by coming off a turf route this filly seems ready her best

7  Mother Flower   not so hot in a route in 2nd lifetime start.....debut which was a sprint fits.....blinkers on and a solid recent work....filly seems part of the picture here

3  Short Memories   lifetime best and might do the trick here was the only time she found the front end......blinkers on today to enhance her chances of getting the lead

5  Miss Napper Tandy

 

race 8    average clarity

6  Unusually Big   brutal trip in last and still graduated..........deep closer is well spotted to succeed at this lowly level....and gets some pace up front to help his cause

7  Zin N the Mailman   another off pace type who should appreciate a likely lively pace up front

4  Feynman   a gift of a slow pace and with a good bug boy up led to an easy win to graduate........likely feeling good off of such a stress free effort

8  Inexcess Time

 

race 9    average clarity  (if off the turf  9-3-1-8)

7  Be Mine   quite impressive in both lifetime races both of which were run at today's one mile turf distance....and she has the right trainer to keep the ball rolling in D'Amato

9  Stays in Vegas   very consistent sort on any surface......most credentials in the race for sure but whereas I believe our top choice will move forward today I believe she might not be up for her best

3  Decked Out   should have won two back and did win her last also a Grade 3 which was at one furlong further....should come flying if she gets enough pace to close into....a major player

5  Sheza Milky Way

 

race 10   below average clarity

9  Ketos   brutal duel down the hill in last and rightfully tired....that 1st grass race really seems to have legged/muscled him up....back to the dirt and looking to fire his lifetime best

4  Hot Item   Baffert 1st timer seems relatively ready......his training and has the breeding suggest he will come from off of it

3  Sense of Glory   low percentage trainer with 1st time starters in Ellis but this one is working as if he might break the mold here

6  Giant Influence

 

race 11    average clarity  (if off the turf   9-7-4-2-5)

7  Gift of a Star   last is quite hidden......ran wide up on a brutal pace.......did extremely well to only lose by 7 3/4L.......seems very likely to get a great trip here as this race is void of speed

5  Dressed to a T   most of career fits and she is only placed as the 2nd choice because the race shape doesn't gel with her off pace style

1  Nikki's Fine Time   like our top choice she should sit pretty in what looks like a good spot for those close up early

2  Sweet

9  Kiss At Midnight

8  Amboseli

Posted on May 6, 2016 at 8:09 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections