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Santa Anita for Saturday 11 June 2016

Mediocre card at Santa Anita today both in quality and my ability to decipher the races. Sunday appears quite good at 1st glance.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 11    Belmont Stakes

1  Governor Malibu   on the improve seemingly with every start........nice 2nd in the Grade 2 Peter Pan in last........trainer used the same prep race for Tonalist who won the 2014 Belmont Stakes.......race lacks speed and this colt seems likely to sit about 4th or 5th fifth down the back-stretch setting things up nicely for the grueling run down the Belmont stretch

11  Exaggerator   feel by far the best about this fellow's chances over anyone else in the field of appreciating the 12 furlongs......only put 2nd because outside of one rabbit in the field there just isn't much speed and he comes from far out of it.........should be a ton down the stretch if the rigors of running in all 3 Triple Crown races doesn't take its toll

10  Lani   comes from outer space (as in extremely far back) but man does he finish fast.....and he owns a fabulous pedigree to get 12 furlongs

4  Suddenbreakingingnews   monumental rider change for the better for this Donnie Von Hemel three-year old who had a very poor trip in the Derby and still was only was 4 3/4 lengths behind the winner.....nice a.m. prowess at CD.....sitting on a big effort

5  Stardivari    might get a very nice stalk position behind the rabbit in the race in the 6 horse......might be rated too low especially if the fractions are slow

 

Santa Anita  race 1    average clarity

3  Fly Lexis Fly   barn must feel they might lose this 7-year-old today because she sure is well prepared in the a.m. for today's drop in claiming.....has the potential (if I am correct in my evaluation) of being a ton in this spot

5  Midnight Hawk   obviously has physical issues but might still have one or two good (enough) efforts left in him

2  Day in the Sun   not at his best to date running at Santa Anita.......likely will need poor races by our top two selections to take this race......but he clearly seems best of the rest

 

race 2    average clarity

5  Alert Bay   most accomplished runner in the field who just happens to love the one mile turf distance......4 wins and a 2nd in 5 starts......seems likely to get a nice mid pack position which is right up his alley

4  Boozer   very capable of stalking the leader and he can get that position here.......and if he does he will likely be stalking a very vulnerable front-runner in the 6 horse

2  Zinvor   very strong races at one mile on the grass and two of the efforts are disguised by bad trips........and today he seems likely to get a good ground saving forwardly placed relatively trouble free journey

 

race 3    above average clarity

3  Magical Touch   filly has done little wrong winning both of her lifetime starts........and like last time she is well placed to succeed........hot rider/trainer combo

1  Sweet Profit   last 4 sprints on main track surfaces all fit in this spot......and one for one with today's jock up

5  Audra   fairly consistent sort fell off in her latest.....back quick today and with a solid speed drill since her last.....likely to bounce back......to what degree seems to be the ? mark

 

race 4    average clarity

10  Ajac   most of his career on fast rated dirt fit well here....and I believe he has enough early gas to clear and lead into the turn.........like the change in apprentice riders as Jose Barnes looks good on a horse for a jock with so few mounts to date

5  Back Sheared Anvil   believe his MSW debut was a tune-up in a protected race to muscle up (as so often only a race can do) and drop into low-priced maiden claiming and go go go

1  Hoosier Road   last definitely fits and I believe he can show the same kind of effort again today......but.......the one hole at 6F for a rider who is 2 for his last 62 in sprints is not a good scenario

8  Game Piece

 

race 5    average clarity

2  Rockport Babe   broke her MSW in style with a strong winning effort in a dirt sprint.....earned a par fig for today's higher level......pedigree to get a route is fine......but her pedigree for the grass is only so so by my book........so if she handles it I believe she wins....if not....tear up your ticket

3  La Boheme   seems to fire every time out to some degree......nice recent 6F drill......does lose the red-hot Prat as he is in New York.......still seem formidable especially if our top choice doesn't handle the sod

4  West Coast Storm   at her best at one mile on the grass and SA might be her favorite grass surface.......Cal-bred in open company is not out of this by any means

9  Thermodynamics

 

race 6    average clarity

3  Sugatatmidnight   tough trip in debut or likely would have broken his maiden in his debut.....likely exited the race in good shape as his connections step him up a couple of levels.......and with a recent vastly improved work which supports the notion

1  Worldwide   3 of 5 lifetime endeavors are quite solid for this level.......should be a major player if he holds form which I believe he will

8  Skookum   drop out of MSW seems warranted........owns dangerous route turf speed and has the right guy for the job of shaking free in Maldonado

6  Look Me in the Eye

 

race 7    average clarity

2  Clever Royal   found a new home and that home is conventional dirt......big race in latest and stellar work since.....believe he is sitting on his lifetime best.....and if the is true he should be quite tough here

7  Story to Tell   seems like a good claim by Jacobson who smartly steps his new shooter out of claiming.....very capable of stalking the leaders with success and I believe that is what he will do here

1  Guy Code   some shot if he brings his "A game".....tough for yours truly to tell if he will or not this afternoon

4  Papa Turf

 

race 8    average clarity

2  Horizontalyspeakin   toss out his last on yielding turf at GG.....likes firm turf and gets it today.......running at the lowest level of his career and why not as he isn't what he once was....very sharp in the a.m......should be in the mix from the get go on his favorite turf surface and distance

3  Brave Act    away from the game for 11 months but I doubt this is a tune-up as Bejarano likely wouldn't be up and he would be placed higher to be protected.....sure fits if I am correct about my assessment

5  Rye Patch   laid up sine July but working decently and drops.......jury is out if this Gaines runner can stalk and win.....but today would be a good time to try because I believe he gets burnt if he goes after the front end

9  Madikwe

 

race 9    below average clarity

7  El Koreano   nice win and with strong pace in last.......why the connections are taking off the blinkers today I'll never know........but I'm not training the horse....that's a good thing.......rider/trainer are 2 for their last 4 together

6  Unbridled Rocket   claimed by Carava in his last and I like that he is putting up Gonzo as he has been one of his go to guys of late

1  Classintheaces   six-year-old has seen better days.....Baffert and company are in the "if you want him you can have him" mode as they drop this fellow again......seems to fit fine but his last win came way back on 4 May 2014

9  Prohibition Repeal

Long-shot consideration:   2  Curly Road   ran very well nearly winning his maiden debut......so being away since Oct with good works showing hints he is ready fresh once again.......and he has never raced lower.......danger city and at a price

 

race 10    below average clarity

10  Stormin Trick   trainer has woken up from the doldrums and appears to be in "win mode".......so.......he is willing to drop this speedster and risk getting him snatched by way of the claiming box.....decent shot to clear by the turn and wire

6  Redneck Crazy   drop down seems dangerous but Sherlock dropped Miss Gifted our top choice on Thursday and she broke down badly......actually.......it might be a good sign of health if this one doesn't scratch as the Stewards don't think to kindly to breaking down two in a matter of a couple of days

4  Night Badger   last is decent.......and blinkers on for today and with a strong series of works since her last.....believe a forward move is in the cards.....good rider/trainer combo

2  Spirit World

 

race 11    below average clarity

3  Kehei Sunset   very strong effort when last seen on 21 Nov 15.....raced very wide and still managed 2nd.....not sure if she is fully ready off of the extended layoff but if she is she seems likely to break her maiden here

2  Victoria Falls   strong layoff race off of the 1 1/2 year layoff.....and it was her first on the sod and at a route.....connections smartly move her up out of maiden claiming......seems stout here if she logically builds off of her last

4  Sassy Ashley   yet another who ran decently off of an extended layoff......might need more of a forward move then our top two selections but might provide it with the ever dangerous Baltas/Bejarano combo

10  Tinderella  

7  Crimson and Gold  

1  Onzaway

Posted on June 11, 2016 at 5:40 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections