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Arlington Park for Arlington Million Day Saturday 13 August 2016

Very exciting card as is so often the case on Million Day at Arlington but an inch or two of rain is expected Friday afternoon and evening. Sunny day on Saturday. Early cheap races 2 - 3 - 4 might be off the turf so I had to study for both on and off the grass so only the top choice has a comment due to limited time.

Good luck at all!

 

race 1    average clarity

2  Velvet Zip   trainer is picking up the pace of late following a dull start to the AP meeting and he drops this mare multiple levels......like her pedigree to handle her 1st ever on the AW and her recent Aug. 4 bullet drill supports the notion

3  Kris Road   best with three weeks or less between starts and gets it today.......solid history running on the AP synthetic

4  Ms. Zenergy   nice close into a pedestrian pace in latest somewhat disguises an awakening.......plenty of speed signed up today might make her late push much more meaningful

7  Read to Me

 

race 2    below average clarity on the turf  ( 3 won and paid $6.20)

3  Mendota   when Geroux made AP his home he often teamed up well with trainer Doug Matthews.......need to lead type appears to have the front end here and has handled yielding turf at AP quite successfully in the past and often with less accomplished riders on his back

6  Aim To Tease

4  Cruachan

2  Fabulous Union

 

race 2    below average clarity if moved to the all-weather

2  Fabulous Union   best credentials on the AW....sharp near bullet 3F work......trainer Dale Bennett is deadly 3rd out following layoffs.....believe he can get a nice stalking trip

6  Aim to Tease

1  Dynamic Decision

7  Hesmakingabigscene

 

race 3    above average clarity on the turf  (2 ran 2nd beaten by a nose)

2  Cartoon   trainer has been firing on all cylinders for most of the Arlington meeting......and his colt has fired in all 7 of his lifetime starts........the only two times he missed the board he had major excuses......exits a key race........continues to train like one sharp individual......1 for 1 on yl turf ........hard not to like

7  Bold Rally

6  Five Green Stars

4  West Village

 

race 3    average clarity if moved to the all-weather

2  Cartoon   trainer has been firing on all cylinders for most of the Arlington meeting......and his colt has fired in all 7 of his lifetime starts........the only two times he missed the board he had major excuses......exits a key race........continues to train like one sharp individual......won his only race on the AW (and at AP) by over 8 lengths and it was his maiden debut and at a route

5  Francois

4  West Village

1  Crewman

 

race 4    average clarity on the turf  (after the scratch top choice 8 won and paid $11.00)

1  Turbulent War   SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE

8  Fort Dixie

10  Repeat Afleet

5  O No Not U Again

 

race 4    average clarity if moved to the all-weather

1  Turbulent War   rider/trainer are 2 for their last 3 as a team......solid grass win in latest and the sod appears to have muscled her up as only the grass can do sometimes as she just popped a best of 47 46:2 breeze on August 4th....should be in the mix from the opening bell with Arlington's leading rider in the saddle.......last two races on the all-weather which were run 2 and 3 races back fit and were run only one furlong less than today's one turn mile if the race is moved to the AW

8  Fort Dixie

11  Run Fort Run

4  Poker Player

 

race 5    average clarity

9  Two Step Two   has been facing better and might be at his very best on synthetic racing surfaces.......although this is his first on the AW (Polytrack) that AP has to offer but he lost by less than a length on the Polytrack at TP in a Grade 3 at 58 to 1.......stout trainer didn't ship north for a small Stakes without winning on his mind

8  Michael J.   double barrel action from Michael Maker as he also trains the our top selection........improving colt is proven on the Poly and draws the services of Geroux who sure knows the AP oval well and his been successful on it

3  Runningfromthefeds   very consistent sort on any surface including the AW......like that he has run well at the extended sprint distance of 7F......hot rider is up in E. T. Baird

6  Who's Your Drama

 

race 6    average clarity   (pick 4 was 2nd, 3rd, top, top pick $320.80)

1  Generous Kitten   it appears Maker/Ramsey enter a "rabbit - number 7" to ensure a a stout pace for this deep closer (and our 2nd choice) who runs all day long........rider/trainer have teamed up for 3 wins in their last 7 over the last two months

5  Da Big Hoss   talk about a runner who shows up almost every time for Maker and company in turf marathons......Geroux is 3 for 3 riding this 5 year old in races at 1 1/2 miles or longer

10  Billabong   consistent marathon grass runner ships in and draws one of California's hottest grass jocks in Flavien Prat....if he is fully fit and ready off of the extended hiatus from the game he might be rated too low

8  Clondaw Warrior

 

race 7    average clarity  (3rd choice won)

6  Oscar Nominated   rounding back into top form on a surface which suites him best....and his pedigree screams out the further the better as long as it is on the grass.....should can a good mid pack position which he seems to respond to.......quite the claim by Maker and friends

2  American Patriot   vastly improved Pletcher grass runner with the addition of blinkers two races back.......seems likely to get a nice stalk position behind the 3 horse who should cash it in early

9  Beach Patrol   way too wide in the Belmont Derby.......easily the most impressive effort of anyone in the race......would rate higher if it wasn't for what I believe will end up being a gd or yl turf course as he seemed to love very firm turf

8  Long Island Sound

 

race 8    average clarity   Exacta hit ICE COLD $68.60 & Double hit ICE COLD $35.40

13  Sea Caller   hard to train any better (and with the added advantage of working on the grass) and training for arguably the good old U S of A's top grass trainer in Chad Brown......plenty of run run-up to turn one should help her jock get on over some and if he gets that accomplished he can utilize this fillies fierce late run even with a wide 2nd turn

2  Al's Gal   scratched out of a $200K Stakes at Sar for this tougher spot......on paper she has never appeared sharper and that scratch adds credence to the notion....... not much speed signed up in this prestigious Grade 1 and this Maker five-year old mare owns some....believe she will sit 2nd - 3rd - or 4th early in a doable pace...dangerous at a big price

6  Coolmore   three-year old likely will appreciate a turf course with more give to it and her last at Belmont in a Grade I on very firm turf isn't too shabby.......like our top selection she seems likely to be up close early on

3  Marypop

12  Faufiler  

 

race 9    average clarity   (9 won and paid $10.80)

9  Mondialiste   seems to really be rounding into form and sure appears to love being on Lasix running two powerful races on it last Fall in Canada and the USA.....and he showed he candle the rigors of shipping from overseas and running well off of short rest (22 days).....21 days this time around and shipping in once again from York GB

5  The Pizza Man    monster is awakening....and other than that there is not much more to say but the fact he is 10 for 14 on the AP grass and handles firm or soft turf

11  World Appeal   owns tactical speed and Geroux showed he knows how to use it in a big win in a Grade 1 at Mth.....seems to fire every time when not racing at Belmont where if I was the owner I would avoid like the plague

12  Tryster

10  Wake Forest

 

race 10    above average clarity    (supefercta box of 4 given horses paid $354.40)

7  Nawlins Kitty   highest percentage trainer in Graded races in this affair....no not Chad Brown......William Bradley.....an impressive 25% with his last 20......DQed in last or would be 2 for 2 on the lawn.......see ya Graham back to Bridgmohan......runs like the added distance will be right up her alley and her pedigree suggests yl turf will be just fine

9  Auntie Joy   all three lifetime Grade 3 races fit in this spot.....and her only one at today's 9 furlongs earned her a trip to the circle of joy at CD......jock knows her well

11  Noble Beauty   lost to our 2nd selection at that Grade 3 at CD but she was gaining on her late.....considering she is trained by Mr Brown she can turn the tables on our 2nd choice and might handle our top selection as well

6  Felt In Pocket   SCRATCHED OUT

3  Try Your Luck

 

 

 

Posted on August 12, 2016 at 1:34 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections