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Santa Anita for Saturday 15 October 2016

I like the race card this afternoon. Let's call it an 8 on the 1 to 10 scale of things.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

6  He Could   both efforts with blinkers on fit and his last is totally hidden by a brutal trip (way too wide up near the pace-setters) .....can sit up close today in a race that seems to favor those who do

5  Evicted   nice improvement in 2nd lifetime start......should have plenty of endurance when push comes to shove in the late stages coming off of a 1 1/8th mile affair

8  Monterey Shale   race 2 back is a fit but his latest isn't.....blinkers on and retains Bejarano for a 5th straight time.....works are good......trainer seems to be awakening from the doldrums......rebound to that race 2 back seems doable

7  Elkhorn Crown

 

race 2    above average clarity

4  Princess Karen   best set of works for a Jeff Bonde 1st time starter in many a moon.......and look who rides the horse......Mr Smith......plenty of endurance put into this youngster and she seems to have some early gas

3  Fortunate Queen   nice wake up in 2nd lifetime start for this Bob Baffert two-year old filly and now we get a rider upgrade........should be a factor in the outcome of this race

5  Go On Mary   went off 30 to 1 in her MSW debut so I doubt she was fully cranked or "meant" in the race for O'Neill and company.....she should be fully fit this afternoon.....not out of this by any means

 

race 3    above average clarity

2  Long Hot Summer   (3 2 1 0) on the hill and seems likely to sit in a nice stalk position behind the 3 and/or the 5.........and with little traffic to negotiate

3  Enola Gray   last was disappointing and was somewhat telltale as the barn sure was thinking "small" as opposed to "big" which seemed more logical prior to her last.....now she tries turf.......if she handles it and mounts a small rebound she will be tough....but.... obviously have some doubts she will

5  Home Journey   if our 2nd choice doesn't take to the hill this mare can open up a lead and that will make for a dangerous scenario with Smith in the irons

 

race 4    average clarity

4  Winning Causeway   last which was run at Lrc (a very fast time for the level) would crush these if of course she can duplicate it in her 1st ever on the SA dirt.....should be in the hunt from the get go

3  Out of Patience   Miller is on fire and a good portion of that success is with Arroyo aboard......latest race is a toss out for me as he attempted to race off of 6 days rest......back to a reasonable 4 weeks rest for today's race......race 2 back is strong and I think we have a decent shot at seeing similar today

6  Perfect Set   best time to drop precipitously is off of long layoffs as there is plenty of doubts in the minds of the claiming vultures.......last 8 or 9 races sure fit well......very dangerous

5  Preacher Roe

 

race 5    average clarity

7  Classico   last run at Lrc fits and his race 2 back is even better and hidden by a very bad journey at 7F......broke slow - checked - and ran way too wide......race 3 back also at 7F is solid as well and run at SA

3  Pedro Cerrano   nice stalking style......1 for 1 at SA winning his MSW debut......acts as if seven panels is within his reach.......red hot trainer in Miller

6  Boldly True   1 for 1 at 7F and the race was at SA......that race was for claiming tag of $75K and was the only time this three-year old was up for a tag......today he is in for $50K......hmmm

4  Annie's Candy

 

race 6    average clarity

2  Sleepwalker   drop makes sense to yours truly as his lone win was by DQ......like the rider change.....and I like the very resassuring near bullet 5F drill last week......and his last two races are better than appear in print

4  Wrightwood   blinkers on seems to have improved this fellow........last two races sure fit fine here.......gelding deservedly steps up a level.....he does something to prove on the SA surface

7  Matriculate   sure fits on the drop down and handles the SA dirt quite well.......should have plenty of endurance cutting back from route racing to 7F.......does tend to hang

9  Nuke Laloosh

Long-shot consideration:   3  Zackos My Man   five-year old had decent ability at 2 and 3......working like that ability might be back following a year off as his preparatory works are very impressive for today's level......and his trainer makes the most out of limited starters

 

race 7    average clarity

6  American League   here is our comment in his last as our top choice "this three-year old and his connections have been extremely unlucky (and that includes his only grass race) as he has had many things work against him trip wise with most of it not of his making........I know of no one who has worse luck at the meet.......overdue for something to go right"......he won at 6 to 1 like a good thing despite a wide trip....deservedly steps up out of claiming.....last with a better trip will be very tough

4  Fabozzi    seems highly likely to get an up close ground saving trip from Baze who is riding well on the grass right now....and the cut back of 1/16th sure appears to be a plus

1  He Will   fired lifetime best in last and now gets a rider upgrade to Bejarano who won the only time he rode this colt.....should be closing fast in the late stages

9  Reflected Star

 

race 8    below average clarity

7  Brimstoned   so so works prior to his last which wasn't his best....works since are much better and hint he might be up for a rebound to last summer's form where he crushed his foes 3 straight following being gelded......we shall see

9  Saint Dermot   best at SA and 1st time Bejarano......Glatt remains hot and might keep the good times going here if Raffy can get over by turn one at least to the two path

10  Gangster   tough post but owns some good early route speed .......chilly rider best use that speed today to clear most or all of the field by turn one.....or he likely will chalk up yet another in the "loss column"

5  Coldspell

 

race 9    average clarity

7  Prowling Around   broke slow and ran 3 wide in an abbreviated 5F sprint that was run in solid time for the lowly level....earned a solid adjusted for trouble Santucci fig.......and his pedigree hints 7F will be a much better fit......like that hot jock sticks around

4  Big Miss Steak   worked well prior to MC debut but was compromised by a poor trip.......sharp 3/65 4F work since and at SA.......trainer has had a super 2016 and might add to his stout stats here

10  Yavrig   very consistent sort and the cut back from 8F to 7F is so often a plus.......would have rated higher if the rider wasn't so ice-cold of late

9  Saddle Club   

1  Correlation

3  Dare to Impress

Posted on October 15, 2016 at 9:36 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections