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Santa Anita for Friday 4 November 2016

Hope you enjoy one of the great days in Thoroughbred racing.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

6  Ten Blessings   won for fun in his MSW debut which was his lone race at SA at 6F.........major move forward in latest and the effort is disguised by pressing a decent pace too close to a dull inside at Lrc on the 25th of December......rider upgrade back to Bejarano who rode in his winning debut.....cut back route to 7F is usually a good thing.....sharp a.m. work

8  Distinctive B   race lacks speed and this five-year old gelding appears to have the most.....and T C Baze has options if necessary as this fellow is capable of rating and winning as well......and for those of you who don't play SA regularly....... Mr Peter Miller is red-hot

9  Westbrook   lifetime best was run at SA and at today's 7F distance......away since mid July but won his MSW debut so he has shown he is capable "fresh".....and his a.m. work hints he is ready fresh once again......and he gets a nice rider upgrade to Prat

4  Forest Blue

Long-shot consideration:   3  Ain't Misbehavin   keeps stepping up the class ladder and succeeding.......handles today's seven panels quite well ( 2 1 1 0)........and Kent Desormeaux has been a good fit for the once $8,000 claimer (3 2 01)

 

race 2    average clarity

5  Tryst   shows up every time including her latest where she was blocked in a 5F turf sprint at Dmr or she would have had a chance of wining today's level........stout grass jock Prat stays aboard and he sure is well acquainted with this filly as he has ridden her in all of her 5 lifetime starts.....should stalk the lead in good position

3  Watch This Cat   on the improve since Baltas claimed 4 races back......took to the majestic SA hill turf course in a big way in her latest which was her 1st ever effort on it.....should be in the hunt from the get go......rail was at the 10 ft position in her last and also is today....you have to like that.....tough to separate top two choices

7  My Palmilla   very strong dirt race (top recent fig in the field by my book) in her last run 4 months ago.......trainer Glatt is quite dangerous with "fresh" sprinters......2 lifetime hill races aren't bad......not sure she is as good on the grass as she is on the turf but if she is and runs her last she will be the one to overcome

8  Ashley's Sassy 

Long-shot consideration:   9  Yana  filly has been given rides that haven't been very creative....yes she tough posts as in 3 straight races from the 10 post.....her last on the grass was impressive and with a good trip she likely wins by a length or two.....new jock today and one that has gotten over to the wood quite a bit this meeting in T C Baze....come on T C

 

race 3    above average clarity

2  Quick Casablanca   fits this ultra marathon distance to a tee.......the further the better........and Graded races past 1 1/2 miles don't come around too often.......T C Baze knows this eight year old well......likely will come from the clouds

1  Scuba   another who runs all day long.......great job of training by Brendan Walsh......(6 2 4 0) on conventional dirt since he took over the training of this son of Tapit.....should be in the mix from the get go

4  Melmich   was favored over our 2nd choice when they faced each other in New York and ran 2nd to him......but for me his lifetime best was run the only time he ran at today's 1 3/4's distance albeit on the AW at WO......might turn the tables on him

8  Hard Aces

 

race 4    average clarity

3  Jazzy Times   blinkers off in latest which was run a touch over his head and with his barn mate going off the heavy favorite and winning.......blinkers go back on and his two previous races were very strong both in pace and final time and run only 1/2 F less that today's 7F.......Bejarano should be in control of things from the opening bell

2  Kafister   8 for 16 on the SA dirt and he has a decent history running at today's somewhat specialized distance of 7F......top East coast jock can put him in a nice ground saving stalk position.......should go off double-digit odds

8  Prospect Park   ran well off of a 5+ month layoff when last seen in Feb in a route race........been away since and attempts a sprint which isn't exactly his forte.....but training well and Desormeaux likely jumped off our 2nd choice to ride....and he has 3 wins - 3 2nd's - and a 3rd in his last 7 mounts on him.....very dangerous if well-meant today.....not so dangerous if this is a prep for bigger and better things down the road in routes

9  Navy Hymn

 

race 5    average clarity

8  Vai   won for fun in her MSW debut and in solid time.......won again in her next and did so 3 wide pressing a solid pace for a two-year old filly state-bred race......that is impressive.....should be prominent from the get go.....3 for 3 lifetime sure appears doable

9  My Pi Romancer   went off 27 to 1 in her debut which hints she wasn't that wound up yet ran a nice 2nd earning a fig about 5L less than the par for what it usually takes to win today's higher level....but...... if she benefits from her debut like I think she will she should fit just fine here.....and in demand Prat sticks around

3  Only You Babe    6 for 6 lifetime on the board and at 3 different tracks.......a perfect 2 for 2 running on conventional dirt.......ran 3rd at a route vs. the boys in last.....that should set her up well to get the 7F with that route endurance put into her.....solid N Cal rider/trainer combo

6  You're Late

 

race 6    average clarity

6  Big Score   I know the SA new grass course yields some very fast times but 133:2 for a two-year old filly who ran wide and made a visually impressive turn move is awfully impressive.......and Prat wisely sticks with the Yakteen trained youngster

1  Landcaster Bomber   O'Brien has won 3 of the last 5 running's of this race so he sure has a handle on what it takes to ship from overseas with a two-year old and win........this colt had a major move forward stunning the crowd at Newmarket at 66 to 1 in a 7 horse field to run 2nd in a very prestigious G1........likely exited the race in terrific shape to ship to the USA.......owns some speed.....draws an OK post

13  Oscar Performance   plenty of early speed for this very talented grass horse and he best use it from a very tough post as the turn comes up awfully quick.......outstanding grass rider in Jose Ortiz to get the job accomplished

8  Intelligence   double barrel action from the O'Brien barn as he also trains our 2nd selection..........last four races for this colt in GB:  key race 2nd and then a key race 3rd overseas......then won big......his last race in GB was loaded with talent and he still managed 4th......trainer & rider have won this race 3 times in the the 9 running's of the race.......dangerous

11  Good Samaritan

 

race 7    average clarity

3  Dortmund   outside of two of the best thoroughbred's of the past decade (California Chrome and American Pharaoh) Dortmund is a perfect 8 for 8......and he is 5 for 6 at SA with his one loss coming to the Chrome by 2 1/4 lengths in his latest.........fabulous work tab since.......2 for 2 at the distance.....should be tough

7  Runhappy   7 for 7 in sprints including a win in the B C Sprint last year.....and 1 for 1 at SA......0 for 2 in routes.....but.......it seems like a smart move to put in 2 one mile works and then a 58:2 blow-out to get him ready to handle the two turns.......needs to avoid a suicide speed duel with our top choice

9  Gun Runner   connections will have their fingers crossed that the 3 & the 7 duel hard as this Asmussen colt will likely sit mid pack hoping things soften up and make his move on turn two or the stretch

1  Vyjack

 

race 8    below average clarity

5  Victory to Victory   don't believe this is the most talented filly in the field but seems likely to get the best trip.......she had a wide trip in her last stalking a hot pace and still won going away in 14 horse field of G1 runners at WO.......jock takes the other Casse runner but I doubt he would have if he knew he would get such a nasty post.....can save ground and sit close up with another one of Casse's favorite riders

1  Hydrangea   out running her odds in her last 3 races averaging 7 to 1 and coming close in all three......3rd nice 2nd place finishes......and Aidan O'Brien knows how to win in the good old U S of A with the babies.....inside posts have been doing awfully in route turf races since the new grass was put in

9  Cavale Doree   French invader ran a better than appears G1 effort before shipping to the USA.......and I like that the connections are using (for my money) the best grass jock with two-year old turf horses in S Cal in Prat

13  Roly Poly   filly has run some big efforts on very firm turf especially for the likes of Newmarket and York (I have been to both tracks) and that bodes well for her appreciating the very fast/firm turf put in at SA......stout rider/trainer combo

14  La Coronel   very nice filly......very bad post

 

race 9    above average clarity

1  Songbird   nobody has decimated their competition race after race like this brilliant filly has in a long time......she has a very good chance of making it a perfect dozen with a win in this prestigious G1.......Songbird is the most fluid and efficient female thoroughbred I have ever seen.....it is something special watching her run

7  I'm a Chatterbox   believe this four-year old filly is ready for her lifetime best coming off such an easy (likely stress-free) win in a Grade 1 at Kee.......solid reassuring work since the race........reliable jock in the saddle

5  Stellar Wind   well proven at SA (5 4 1 0) and with regular rider Espinoza remaining up......might have considered as the 2nd selection if it wasn't for the fact she flattened slightly in both of her efforts racing as far as 1 1/8th

8  Beholder

 

race 10    average clarity

5  Monster Bea   fell off some in his latest but that was somewhat predictable as he was coming off his lifetime best and by quite a bit and changed his running style.......believe he rebounds to the stout effort and I doubt Javier Castellano sends him to the front like he did at Belmont......can sit mid pack and coming motoring late

1  Free House   would have been top choice if it wasn't for a very tricky post at 1 1/8th on the turf at SA.........gelding has won his last two grass races both Graded affairs and in his latest he dealt with one nasty pace and held together for the win in the G2 Dmr Derby which was rather impressive

4  Oscar Nominated   impressive win with the switch to Geroux at KD......might be very fit coming off of an undulating grass course and running 3/16's further......stout rider/trainer combo on big days.......very dangerous

8  Dressed in Hermes

Long-shot consideration:  10  Diplodocus   seems best at 1 1/8th on the grass and that is somewhat hidden.......Dmr Derby on the grass two back is better than appears in print.....and today we go from an average at best grass rider to one that is very good in Ortiz, Jr.....might come flying late in a race that should yield a solid set of fractions

 

 

 

Posted on November 3, 2016 at 8:30 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections