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Special Pub for Saturday 15 April 2017 covering the 8 Stakes races at OP & Kee

Good weather forecast at both tracks. Life is good!

Good luck to all!

 

Kee race 7   G3 Ben Ali  average clarity

6  Bird Song   has held very sharp form over late fall and winter and continues to train as if his prowess will continue in his 1st race in spring.....capable of going eye to eye in decent pace and still battle for the top prize.....few are

3  Watershed   much improved in latest two endeavors and his trainer has been firing on all cylinders so far at the Keeneland Spring Meeting......should be motoring late as there does appear to be enough speed in the race for a late runner to be a factor in the outcome of this Grade 3

4  Scuba   more suited to 12 furlongs or further but he has also shown that he is capable at 1 1/16th and 1 1/8th.....and the fact that his regular rider Kendrick Carmouche ships in to ride him hints that this is not a tune-up

7  Conquest Enforcer

 

Kee race 8    F100K Giants Causeway  average clarity

7  Lady Aurelia   Wesley Ward is a turf sprint specialist and this three-year old filly is one of his top grass sprinters.......in 2016 this filly won a 5F turf sprint G2 at Ascot by 7 lengths (yikes) and also beat the boys in a 6F turf G1 in France.....training as if she is 100% ready to roll

4  Exaggerated   4 for 4 at the distance of 5 1/2F and three of those races were on the grass.........won the 2016 version of this race at 10 to 1 going gate to wire........capable of stalking to win if need be................draws Prat who by my book is one of the top 10 grass riders in the USA and Canada

5  Rapid Rhythm   very consistent late running grass sprinter racing less than 6 furlongs.....and she is 3 for 3 with James Graham on her back......Michael Stidham knows what it takes to ship and win especially in the Midwest

1  Ruby Notion

10  Pretty Perfection

 

Kee Race 9    G3 Lexington  average clarity

10  West Coast   not an easy post especially for a three-year old colt but the blinkers go back on and he appears to own the best early foot in the field.......rider upgrade......Prat should be able to clear all or most by the 1st turn.....if that scenario plays out he should be tough from the gate to the wire

4  No Dozing   rider upgrade and to one that is off to a hot start at the Kee meeting......trainer is a stellar 30% win 3rd out following a layoff which is the case today........beat two thirds the field in the 2016 Breeders Futurity at Kee last year.......seems pointed to this race.......very dangerous

5  Time to Travel   solid forward more in his 2nd lifetime start for Matz and company running a stout 1:21:4 at GP albeit on one fast day.....like that Prado comes in to ride........colt seems more than deserving at a shot at the big time.....believe this youngster will be on the lead if our top choice doesn't get it

1  Resiliency

3  Senior Investment

 

Kee race 10    G1 F & M Jenny Wiley  average clarity

4  Dickinson    since switching to the grass five races back this McLaughlin five-year old mare just keeps getting better.......comes off her top accomplishment to date a G2 win at Tampa.....and since then she is seemingly training the best of her career......should sit close to the lead in a race that likely favors those who do

1  Lady Eli   ultra consistent sort (as is her trainer) is not easy to place as 2nd choice but I believe she might be a little too late shortening up to only 8 1/2 furlongs and in a race without that much speed......very dangerous but a little less so today maybe

6  Time and Motion   seems at her best given ample time between starts and gets it.......the only time she was able to run on a firm Kee grass course she won a prestigious Grade 1 .......belivee Velasquez will hustle her early recognizing the lack of speed in the race

7  Illuminant

8  Quidara

 

 

OP race 7   G3 Count Fleet  average clarity

3  Moe Candy   owns some decent tactical speed.......and.......not much speed signed up in this affair especially for a Graded sprint race......usually a good gate horse but not so in his last where he broke a little tardy and still managed 2nd in a G2 at Santa Anita.....does well with ample time between starts and gets it......he is capable of leading or stalking to win......should sit 1 - 2 or 3 at the 1st call

8  Whitmore   4 for 4 at 6F and 1 for 6 at other distances......broke the 109 flat barrier at OP in his last two ........connections will have their fingers crossed that the pace will quick enough to aid his mid pack style

2  Wabel   if this five-year old brings his "A game" (2 of his 12 lifetime races) he has a shot at grabbing his 1st Graded win today.......and the way in which trainer Brad Cox is going these days he has a decent shot at doing just that

7  Sharp Art

 

 

OP race 8    150K Northern Spur  average clarity

5  Love That Lute   race came up awfully weak (this younster beat one half of this field in his last by 2 1/2 or more lengths) for a 150K Stakes race giving this Van Berg runner a chance to stalk and ponce once again as he did in an allowance race in his latest....believe our fourth choice leads....if not...... Mike Smith is likely to take it

2  Colonelsdarktemper   was beaten by our top selection in his latest but William Fires is much more dangerous 2nd time at a route.....and the a.m. work sure supports the notion that a forward move will occur.....likely to go off a decent price

3  Warriors Club   on the right end of the learning curve and retains J J Castellano.......seems highly likely to get a mid pack or stalking trip saving ground at least thru turn one.....that is dangerous proposition for sure

1  Cistron

 

 

OP race 9   G2 Oaklawn H.  average clarity

3  Midnight Storm   faces way easier than he faced in the prestigious Santa Anita Hcp to say the least (where he ran 2nd only beaten by 1/2 length).....and he does so as the best early speed in the far by far......thus a 1 to 2 morning line

4  Madefromlucky   seems the most likely to stalk our top choice hoping that if has a bad day for one reason or another......maybe he won't like the OP surface.....I doubt it.....but maybe

2  Domain's Rap   never better and gets to race on his favorite dirt track but he sure needs to do better at 9 furlongs than he has done twice in the past......would have been 2nd choice if this race at 1 1/16 of shorter

1  Texas Chrome

 

OP race 11    G1 Ark Derby  average clarity

2  Classic Empire   giant effort/win in the BCJvnl last Nov at SA.......ran number for a two-year that was off the charts and did so pressing  a strong pace......ran poorly in his next as the 1 to 1 favorite.....needs a rebound.....not sure if he provides one but if he does he can dominate this race from start to finish

12  Malagacy   Pletcher colt has won all three lifetime races by a combined 25 lengths........showed in likes the OP surface by winning a G2 4 weeks ago........ post is no bargain but still appears the one to beat if our top choice fails to make a rebound

1  Rockin Rudy   won by 11 lengths in lone dirt race and it was his debut in a MC80K......had to be laid up from August to Feb and returned to run two grass races down the SA hill and the latest was very strong.....might feel really good for his return to the dirt and with the sprint-sprint-route maneuver

9  Untrapped

Long-shot consideration:   3 Silver Dust   only lost to our 2nd choice by 3+ lengths and not with the best of trips.....blinkers on.....and just what you want to see as an improved work tab......not impossible to upset the apple card with a better trip and a little more horse with the addition of the blinkers

Posted on April 10, 2017 at 5:06 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections