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Santa Anita for Saturday 6 May 2017

Seems like a decent card at Santa Anita. As for Kentucky what a bummer as it looks very bad on the radar. Being at CD on Derby day with good weather repeatedly gives me goosebumps throughout the day. On a cold rainy day and with a constantly changing messed up racetrack I'd rather be at home in Chicago wagering online. 

Best of luck as always!

 

race 12   Churchill Downs - Kentucky Derby

8  Hence   runs and works well at CD.......showed he can handle an off track......very fast time somewhat verified by big gaps to 2nd and 3rd......rider upgrade......decent post.....Asmussen has yet to win a Ky Derby but a few of his runners have put in solid Ky Derby efforts

17  Irish War Cry   4 for 5 lifetime with his miss being so awful it becomes kind of easy to ignore.....especially considering he returned 5 weeks later to crush in a G2 at Aqu.......love his pedigree to get the 10 furlongs and to handle an off surface if we get one

14  Classic Empire   giant effort/win in the BCJvnl last Nov at SA.......ran number for a two-year that was off the charts and did so pressing  a strong pace......ran poorly in his next as the 1 to 1 favorite........came back to life in his next start off of 2 1/2 months rest to win the ArkDby......jostled around some in the race and I like that he had to cope with traffic and with some kick back for a good majority of the race......2 for 2 at CD.......1 for 1 on an off track......seems tough if he exited his latest in good shape

15  McCraken   3 for 3 at CD and nothing much has changed as he is training great on his return to it's surface......does have to prove himself on an off track if we get one.......jock has a shot at getting a nice mid pack position

2  Thunder Snow   not usually a big fan of overseas runners making there 1st U S of A start in the Derby......but the colt just won a G2 (UAE Derby) 16 horse field in Dubai and did so running almost as far as the distance of the Ky Derby.......and he seems to have a decent chance at handling an off track as he won on soft turf - firm turf - and is 2 for 2 on the dirt....hopefully a versatile athletic sort

5  Always Dreaming  very impressive in his G1 win at GP......but he is a bit of a goof and the rowdy environment at CD has a shot of doing him in.....but then again if he repeats his last he should be a major player in the outcome of this race

NOTE:   18  Gormly (only consider if the track is off)   if the track is off I believe he has a shot as he ran his best race in a G3 on a sy main track at SA and he showed the best speed of his career by a lot in the race.........which is another sign he appreciated an off track.

 

Santa Anita race 1    average clarity

7  Brookies Luck    work series says ready for this Bonde baby and he likely has plenty of speed with speed rider Maldonado getting the call.....and.......mom has tosses 4 winner from 4 starters 2 of which were Stakes winners and all 4 preciously won at 2

6  Moonlight Praise   Brocklebank is hot right now and awfully dangerous in these early two-year old races.......fast 4F gate work to finish his a.m. work.....decent rider/trainer combo

4  Time for Choppino      works seem good enough for Sherlock and company who is usually ready with a good portion of his stock in this early baby races.....and mom has tossed 2 winners from 2 starters both of which were able to win at two

5  Private Tucker

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Tribal Fighter   sure appreciates a race down the hill.....last might do the trick but what we are looking for are his two previous hillside efforts both sub 112 flat .....top-notch rider/trainer combo in Baltas and Nakatani

6  Blackjactcat   1 for 1 down the majestic SA hill turf course and this four-year old comes off of two straight somewhat disguised turf routes.....with the cut back in distance he should have plenty of endurance late when push comes to shove.....gets 1st time Bejarano to boot

2  Tiz a Billy   has very little to prove on the hill with 2 wins and 2 2nd's in 4 starts on it.......very smooth runner and a good portion of the riding has been with today's jock Chantal Sutherland aboard

7  Roy H

 

race 3    average clarity

6  Parched   brutal trip in his maiden debut breaking a little tardy and then running wide on a day the rail was somewhat biased.......that effort fits here at today's lower MC level if of course he gets a better trip......rider upgrade and to one in Pedroza who has had some success with Molly Pearson

1  Cupid's Beau   absolutely had a trip from you know where in his latest....if he repeats the effort this afternoon he only needs an OK trip to have a big shot at winning this.....but he might be a "claim me please" type because the drop doesn't make sense especially with a switch to a bug boy

8  Giro Candito   Mullins picks up a new horse and he appears to have a good handle on his new shooter in the mornings.......1st on the conventional dirt but he sure trains just fine on it

5  This's How We Roll

 

race 4    average clarity

7  Red Stitch   decent 2nd in the 7 April version of this race especially considering it was off of a long layoff..............two reassuring 5F works since....same or better seems likely........extra 1/16th to work with seems like a plus

6  Rally Back   rebounded some in latest.....not sure why you would put the blinkers on following a rebound in form....but......if it does indeed help get more out of this filly then she might be the one to beat

4  Ultimate Game   laid up Salder filly owns some good early speed and she is well placed to win if she returns ready to roll......do note however that her gate to wire win last August was run on a rail speed day that benefitted her

3  Who Said Lucky

 

race 5    above average clarity

4  Sircat Sally   6 for 6 for this front running Hollendorfer filly with the last three races run on the grass......and what a spot here as she sure looks like the lead is hers....and that folks if more dangerous than it usually is because she has shown that she can rate kindly

1  Spy Ring   difficult post in latest led to a bad trip 2nd in her USA debut following 5 races overseas.....works are much better since the race and we get a significant rider upgrade for the turf race as Espinoza has been struggling on it in 2017......very dangerous sort

6  Pacific Wind   needs about 3 or 4 lengths more horse with the hike from MSW win to a Grade 3........debut win was very impressive visually....should build on the effort.....not at all out of this if she does

 

race 6    below average clarity

3  Cammy's Music   morning-glory types like this gelding often need the lead to perform (usually because they hate dirt in their face) and he has a shot to get it with a sold speed work put in 4 days ago and speed jock Maldonado staying up

1  Buckner   Scott Hansen is capable of getting 1st timers ready to run and this colt is working well enough to possible be a major player in the outcome of this low-level maiden claimer

5  Tiz Indy   moved forward with the blinkers put on in his latest........fits here if he builds on the effort some........works since his last hint he might

9  Supreme Giant

Long-shot consideration:   4  Bolted Heart   decent works...... some of which are likely endurance building for this 2nd time starter who showed little in his MC debut.....mom's other two runners were both winners.......faces a bad bunch.......30 to 1 ML.....might be worth a whirl

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Red Livy   out ran her 66 to 1 odds in her maiden debut a turf sprint in Ireland......beat 15 of 20 foes and was only beaten 2 3/4 for the win.......1st out in the U S of A 9 months later at SA was in a turf route where she chased a solid pace and tired.....her works prior to her layoff race hinted she was not prepared for a route.....so......it likely was an endurance building tune-up......cut back in distance with a horse that showed speed routing is often a positive for running well on the hill.....top turf trainer in D'Amato

10  Lyrics   strong forward move in 2nd lifetime start for this Richard Mandella filly who owns adequate breeding to take to the sod.....should be a major factor in the outcome of this race if she does

3  She'sashocker   1st time blinkers and just what you want to see as improved a.m. work......ssprint-route-sprint maneuver........ seems as if she is meant today for Machowsky and company

2  Like That

 

race 8    below average clarity

11  Did Smart Cat   last is better than appears in print but maybe more importantly this filly has some nice back numbers for Chew and company and an impressive series of 6 works.....that hints she might be up to one of those "back numbers" today.......we shall see

7  Avicii   Miller is very dangerous with recent claims and especially so with horses he claims back like this filly.......six-year-old mare is quite consistent on main track surfaces (26 7 8 6) and even more so in her last 10 races with 4 wins - 5 2nd's and a 3rd......no wonder Miller wanted her back in his barn

1  Stealth Drone   seems like a good claim by Hollendorfer as this mare got her mojo job with the blinkers put on......and she sure comes thru when you place her in 6F races (8 4 2 1) ......6F today and with a jockey upgrade

12  Time for Ebby

 

race 9     below average clarity

8  Ready Aim fire......at least I hope so for this Mandella youngster who is working well for his MSW debut.....I don't have the best track record at judging Sir Richard when it come to his 1st timers but even if this fellow isn't all out in his debut he still might be able to handle this weak looking bunch

1  Borg   O'Neill 1st timer catches a good spot and is working fairly well to possible take down this field that might lack quality.......find it interesting that he uses Bejarano on a 1st timer......that doesn't occur too often so it might be significant

10  Gato Del Oro   Baltas 1st time starter might be peaking at the right time as his last two works are solid......tough post though for a 5 1/2 furlong race.....but he does show signs of early speed and with an OK speed rider up

9  Placido

 

race 10    above average clarity

3  Vending Machine   won his lone grass race and the effort was at one mile and in a 75K Stakes like today........blinkers off and 1st time racing as a gelding.....and the recent a.m. work hints the changes have improved him.......and one reliable trainer/rider combo in Miller/Arroyo

1  Ventry Bay   lifetime best for this Wesley Ward three-year old was run last year and it was the only time he shipped into S Cal with him.....that race was a one mile grass race at SA with an out-of-town rider......exactly the same scenario today........hmmmmm

4  Bird is the Word   colt seems to find trouble quite often (one way or another) but he appears the best off pace runners in the field and gets 1st time Bejarano......dangerous for sure

5  Fashion Business

 

race 11    average clarity

4  Always Never   drop down from the Puype barn and with solid preparatory drills.....that has been a winning formula for the last 6 months for the trainer......should be the controlling speed from the get go

10  Strong Values   gelding was able to win 1st out following one long hiatus from racing......if he exited the race in good shape I like his chances as another 1/2 furlong for him to work with should be to his benefit

9  This Time I Win   six year old returns to racing today off of a 2 year and a one week layoff.......works are decent......and he did run fairly well in his debut......and he drops.....might be live as the last two times Ellis used bug boy Solis they won a race and hit the board in another

3  Dr. Crabby

1  Where's Bubba

7  True Ranger

 

Posted on May 6, 2017 at 7:01 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections