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Santa Anita for Friday 23 March 2018

Just one week and a day until Florida Derby Day and for those still interested in our special publication of the 7 or 8 Stakes races on the card please sign up as early as possible as logistically speaking it helps us out some.

Take note that the selections in the two grass races carded are for off of the turf which seems about 95% likely this afternoon.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    below average clarity (picks are for off of the turf and on the main track)

3  Kona Dreams   needs contact to the front end to run well and he appears to be the best speed in the field..........1st ever on an off track (maybe) if that is what we get but his pedigree to handle one is good on both sides of the family

8  Spitfire   seems better on the dirt than the turf and he just fired his best of three lifetime grass races in his last.......so if he can run as well on an off track as he does on a fast track logic suggests he has a shot at one of his best main track efforts ever

1  Popular Kid   only runner in the field that has shown he is OK competing on an off track.......would have rated higher if the trainer wasn't a little chilly following a period where he was red-hot

6  Green With Eddie

12 AE  Hawks Peak

7  Gio's Calling  

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Eternal Endeavour    needs ample time between starts and Powell shows patience and gives it to his filly who sure handled her 1st on the dirt in her last.......I like these kind as the need to be fully ready (as a opposed to a possible gimme) as it while likely will be some time before their bodies recover enough to race again.....off track if we get one is a ? mark

3  All Net   just wired the field in sprint race on a muddy track at SA 12 days ago.......that bodes well for her chances to handle the significant step up in class today if the surface still has some moisture in it which I believe it will......should be loose and difficult to reel in if the track plays in her favor

5  Sapphire Kid   best of the rest......doubt a winner but maybe a piece of the pie

 

race 3    average clarity

5  Dial Me In   only effort where this gelding got to compete off of short rest he fired his lifetime best........that and his last which was run on a sloppy track is better than appears in print as he broke slowly and rushed and did so on a slightly dull inside.....did well to salvage 3rd.....better exit from the gate would help (but not necessarily needed) but don't count on it as he has broken 1 to 3 lengths slow in all 5 career races

2  Wild Lando   on the right end of the learning curve with few reasons not to think his educational process can't continue today........with that said he does face two new challenges today's.........as in 1st at a route and 1st an off track (maybe)

4  Lucky Sun   big awakening in his latest and I sure like the step up out of maiden claiming to MSW for this Miyadi three-year old.......the trainer is a solid 3 for his last 18 with the difficult move.......like our 2nd selection this is his 1st at a route and maybe his 1st on an off track.........decent pedigree to handle both

3  Faversham

 

race 4    average clarity

5  Lady Mamba   filly displayed blazing turf route speed in her last two grass race and still nearly graduated........that and she can stalk and still run well........awfully well bred to handle the dirt........and a better than average pedigree to take to a surface other than fast

6  Tequila Sunrise   toss out last as she had a crazy trip giving her little chance on a very sloppy track.......race two back on a fast track was very strong.......believe the less "off" the track is the better for this three-year old filly

2  Tell Your Mama   did run 2nd by a head on a very sloppy surface in his last but the time was poor.....but be careful as producing a decent "track variant" on a very sloppy rainy day is difficult and not as valid as the track can change throughout the day

4  Fool's Paradise

 

race 5    below average clarity  (picks are for off of the turf and on the main track)

8  Friendly Outthedor   drop to maiden 50K claiming makes sense to yours truly as this gelding appears to have some physical issues as this is only his 3rd race since starting his career last September........and he only cost $23K at sale in 2015........works hint Eurton means business as he likely realizes he might lose his four-year old by way of claim

4  Starting Bloc   another dropping out of MSW racing for the 1st time but unlike our top choice he has yet to run on the main track.......but if Richard Mandella sees fit not to scratch him that suggests the trainer firmly believes he thinks his colt will handle the main track

10  Tidal Efffect   yet another stout barn dropping their runner from MSW racing to maiden claiming for the 1st time......only race on the main track seems good enough as he beat 7 of 10 foes and it was his MSW debut where he went off 18 to 1 hinting he wasn't all that cranked up

3  Taniko

12 AE Impression

6  Big Sky Lagoon

14 AE  Street to Indy 

 

race 6    average clarity

1  Wild Edie   two of three lifetime races at SA fit well here and that includes her latest which was run on a muddy track.......that and the cut back in distance of 1/2 furlong seems like a plus........hot bug boy Ceballos and his weight break gets the call

4  Chiefs Lil Pearl   ultra consistent three-year old filly has been part of the exacta in 7 of 9 lifetime races and drops one notch.......would have been top if it wasn't for the possibility that the track might have some moisture in it........pedigree for an off track isn't too hot on mom's side of the equation

6  Cinnamon Twist   a little short fig wise as compared to our top two picks but the race profile seems to set up some for those that come from off of the pace as she tends to do

3  Uno Trouble Maker 

7  Proudly Elegant

 

race 7    average clarity

6  Irish Freedom   colt owns some big adjusted for trouble figs as he tends to run wide and that hurts his earnings racing in Graded races........but that might not matter today racing in an allowance race for the 1st time in 5 races........and he won that allowance race by more than 5L......decent "off track" pedigree

2  Law Abidin Citizen   showed some very impressive early speed in his last which was his first to date running on an off track.........appears to be the speed of the speed which makes him dangerous if speed is doing OK today

5  River Echo   five-year-old has shown he can handle the off going......like his chances if the jock takes back some and avoids a suicidal speed duel with our 2nd selection

3  Ferguson

 

race 8    average clarity

9  Studly Perfection   Richard Baltas means business today as he realizes he likely will lose this gelding by way of claim and he has this fellow training very sharply for a MC20K race......should be in the mix from the get and with the hot bug boy up

8  Dare to Enter   last is solid and gives him a decent shot at wining this if he can repeat it........but.........he seems better with ample time between starts........he will need to break the mold today

6  Ministertomyheart   sprint-sprint-route maneuver here and for a barn that has been heating things up of late........dangerous but easy to make as our 3rd pick-a-rue

5  Weiden

7  Lighthouse Boogie

4  When Jesus Walked

 

 

 

 

Posted on March 23, 2018 at 7:38 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections