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Santa Anita for Saturday 5 May 2018

Nice looking card at SA today. Hope you enjoy the Ky Derby.

Best of luck as always!

 

CHURCHILL RACE 12   average clarity (hard to split top two choices)

7  Justify   once again the most brilliant (at least in the States) three-year old in the Kentucky Derby field comes from Southern California with the possible exception of our 2nd choice who is much more difficult to get a handle on than the horses competing in the "States".......all three of Justify"s adjusted Santucci figs are solid for today's lofty race level.....and in his last in the SA Derby he earned a real number (as in no adjustment) that is better than par for what it usually takes to win the big race early May........sizable colt is bred and acts like the 10 furlongs will be to his liking

14  Mendelssohn   you think that this Uae Derby winner appreciates the conventional dirt a little.........usually I find it rather easy to toss out overseas invaders when it comes to OUR derby but this one won by 18L at a distance further than today's race.........the margin of victory was supported by the fact that the "composer" broke the Stakes record by 7 lengths.......and he is a half-brother to the fabulous Beholder........the X-factor in the race.......and a big one.......an off track is a ? mark

6  Good Magic   Chad Brown just keeps getting more and more formidable as a trainer and he sends out a colt who won last years B C Juvenile by a widening 4 1/4 lengths.......the race was run in his 3rd lifetime start and off of 4 weeks rest.......3rd out in 2018 for this colt........and you guessed it - his last race was 4 weeks ago.........an off track is a ? mark but he sure is bred to handle one

9  Hofburg   brutal trip to win and graduate off of a 6 month layoff two races back.......the adjusted for trouble fig earned is much better than appears in print.......Bill Mott seldom makes such a steep step up in class as he did in this youngster's last which was the Santa Anita Derby where he sure ran a nice 2nd to our top selection......bred to run all day......dangerous and at a price........an off track is a ? mark but he sure is bred to handle one

11  Bolt d'Oro   very special individual who seemingly shows up every time.......continues to train like a happy healthy three-year old who will be one of the top Ky Derby contenders if he can get the 10 furlongs without flattening.......his pedigree says yes he can but his running lines hint no he can't.......and his 5% win for the year trainer is up against a whose who list in top trainers........an off track is a ? mark but he sure is bred to handle one

Long-shot consideration:   10  My Boy Jack   (mostly consider if the track comes up good or sloppy) very consistent late runner romped in his only race on an off track and might get a strong pace up front as quite a few riders will want to send early (as in more than if the track is fast) as to avoid mud being kicked in their face......Hall of Fame rider would likely cherish a win photo with his bro

 

race 1    average clarity

2  Lynn's Legacy  switch to a much higher win percentage turf rider with Espinoza in Kentucky.......and drops into this unusual but creative conditioned claiming 35K......we don't want her last......we want her race 2 back or 4 back or 6 back.......every other sort is on the positive end of the oscilloscope

1  Tammy's Window   trainer is often more dangerous 2nd out following a claim and that is the case today......that bodes well for a strong race on the drop in class as a good portion of this four-year old runners turf efforts fit solidly here

4  Subic Bay   bug boy Asa Espinoza is really starting to look good on a horse including on this five-year old mare from the Mullins barn.......the 7 lbs break at 9 furlongs looks awfully good here.....not out of the win picture by any means

7  Kitty Boo

 

race 2    above average clarity

4  Luck's Royal Flush   2-year-old 1st time starter is out working anyone in this field of 8 and for a trainer in Bonde who is more than capable in these early 2-year-old MSW races......that and mom has tossed 3 winners from 3 starters

8  Settle It   working the 2nd most impressively in the race and she sure owns a nice Cal-bred pedigree.......and like our top selection she has tossed 3 winners from 3 starters......and in her case one Stakes winner

6  Nice Haircut   double barrel action as O'Neill also trains our 2nd selection.....definitely prefer O'Neill's other runner but this colt just worked his best looking drill in his last preparatory work and might be coming around when it counts the most....... as in right before his debut

1  Calder Vale

7  Stormy Valentino

 

race 3    average clarity

7  Amada Rafaela   last 4 drills for this Baffert MSW 1st time starter are awfully strong......that and Martin Garcia is showing signs of snapping out of prolonged slump and he will be all out to bring this filly home a winner taking advantage of fact others are in Ky and might have gotten the call on this three-year old filly

2  Untouched Elegance    best set of preparatory works for any Richard Baltas 1st time starter in quite some time......that and he and bug boy Ceballos have won 3 of their last 9 as a team with 3 others hitting the board

1  Tiz Coffee   best of those that have raced (two 2nd's in 2 lifetime races on the dirt) and her latest (which was her 1st on the grass) is a much better than appears in print........that and she has some early zip and a good gate rider in Maldonado up.....dangerous proven runner

3  Patricia's Ring

 

race 4    average clarity

4  La La Land   sure like the work regiment since this D'Amato's 3rd place finish in a 200K Stakes 7 weeks ago.....likely needs a little more than he produced in that race but seems like he will be up to it off it his a.m. is worth a hoot

5  Choo Choo   lifetime best and a solid fit here was run the last time he was entered in a turf race.....that race was 4 races back and was at SA and at today's one mile distance....should be a major player

1  Afleet Ascent   dangerous turf route speed in this spot for this Hollendorfer (who also trains our 2nd pick) colt who if he can shake free might get awfully brave and be tough to catch

3  More Honor

7  Blame the Rider

 

race 5    average clarity

7  Batiquitos   nice record to start her career with 2 nice sprint efforts on the dirt and the same in 2 sprint efforts on the turf........but didn't care for his 1st route race which was on the grass.......but the endurance building race and a sharp recent work on the SA tr.t have him poised for his best to date back on the dirt

1  Scathing   red hot trainer Vladimir Cerin steps up this mare off of some improved recent a.m. work......believe the trainer has tweaked something for the better......we shall find out if that is the case about 2 p.m. pacific time

3  Love a Honeybadger   Koriner is quite dangerous when he takes the blinkers off a given horse and that is the case with this filly today......and she appears to have a good shot at getting loose and maybe she will be easier slow down with the blinkers off

4  Twisted Rosie

2  Li'l Grazen

 

race 6    average clarity

2  The Tulip   very strong effort (and disguised some in its strength) run two back in a one mile grass race which was run 17 days following a 9F grass race.......9F grass race 28 days ago........one mile grass race today........good post......good grass trainer......decent N Cal turf rider

3  Fahan Mura   very dangerous turf route speed in this spot where she appears to only have one other just as fast in the 5 horse.......and she is capable of taking back and still winning........such a deal

4  Fuera   likes it very firm so S Cal turf should be a fit......had a nice muscle her up sprint turf tune-up........all set to strut her stuff for Baltas and company back in a two turn turf race.......and at a distance she seems best at (4 2 1 1)

7  Hachi

8  Fizzy Friday

 

race 7    average clarity

6  Pursuing The Dream   three year old filly has only sprinted on the turf to date which includes her 1st in the USA in her last run at SA at 6 1/2F......that folks was the tune-up for today's 1st at a route which she is bred so well for.........works since her prep race are much improved......all systems go

1  West Palm Beach   impressive 1st on the grass and 1st in the USA.....that effort might do the trick but she surely has the right to move forward if her educational process continues today.......good post and a good turf jock

3  Exuberance   6 nice dirt races to start her career and now switches to the green carpet for her 7th lifetime start......and her pedigree seems better for the turf than the dirt......very dangerous sort

2  May Girl

 

race 8    average clarity

5  North County Guy  both lifetime races for this Jacobson MC fit fine in this spot and his latest is disguised by running on a dull rail and getting boxed a couple of lengths on the turn......should be a major player

1  Mach Speed   Richard Baltas is only 1 for his last 39 with MC 1st time starters but he has put in copious drills into this colt including 4 gate drills and the 2 worked at 5F are decent.......believe this one might be "meant & ready"

7  Quad   owns very good early speed in this spot........would have rated higher if it wasn't for the notion that 6 1/2 lengths might be a little too far than he wants to compete

2  Moon Juice

8  Seattle Encounter

 

race 9    average clarity

5  Fortune of War   four-year old often makes a strong early move in his one mile grass races.....that tells me he might really like the 6 1/2 furlongs that the SA hill has to offer....we shall see

7  Sigur Ros   gelding appears very sharp in the a.m. preparing for her 1st on the sod......and I believe she is better bred for the grass than the dirt.....lookout if that is the case

1  Make It a Triple   very consistent sort over her last ten races (10 4 2 2 2) ........five-year old gelding should be close up early and in a race that seemingly slightly favors those that do........hard not to like

3  Conquest Superstar

2  So Conflated

 

race 10    below average clarity

11  Zap Again   takes a drop to lowest available condition claiming level and his lifetime best was the only time this Treece runner ran at today's 6 1/2 furlongs......should be tough if he holds form off of the 8 week break

3  Bad Boy Leroy   another dropping and in this case maybe a little too much......as in quite suspiciously......obliviously he is not in the best of physical condition but maybe has another decent race left in him.....flip a coin type

6  Glorious Crown   go to guy for David Jacobson has been Pedroza of late and he rides for the 1st time........dangerous sort

5  Dad's a Gambler

8  Kaleidoscope

 

race 11    average clarity

2  Bob's Bad Boy   MC50K fits........MSW racing does no.........his race three back in a MC50K is a strong better than par run down the hill at today's level......that race with a decent trip would make him difficult to beat

10  Kinematico   seems best down the hill and with plenty of early gas......finally gets back to it following 5 straight route races on the turf.......switch in riders as Elliot winds up on our top selection

5  Conquest Smartee   fits very well at the MC50K level and he is only rated this low because he sure appeared to be a hanger

1  Frankie Machine

6  Harliss

 

Posted on May 5, 2018 at 6:28 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections