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Santa Anita for Friday 11 January 2019

Decent chance of rain tonight so I will study for the races being on or off of the turf on Saturday.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

6  Encountress   lifetime best in latest and the effort is disguised by a slow start and a 3 wide trip........best number of her career and a solid fit if Baze gives her a better trip

1  Big Base   plenty of speed in this affair has a decent chance to flatter the late run of this Hollendorfer filly........and she might feel awfully good for her trainer to step her up one MC level

8  Gia Lula   quite consistent racing in sprints on the dirt or the turf........but.......she sure needs to get over her tendency to hang in the late stretch

4  Whata Flirt

2  Crackling Bread

 

race 2    average clarity

2  Copper Cowgirl   SCRATCHED OUT OF RACE  good history with top bug boy Figueroa in the saddle......youngster does well with route speed and this filly should be in the hunt from the get go

4  Proper Drink   obvious tune-up placed over her head in latest......drops today sprint to route and races at the lowest claiming level of her life........sure seems like a major player

7  Cee Sam's Girl   three year old makes a move and then lacks punch in the late stages of her route races.......jock upgrade might help overcome that

3  Reinahermosa

 

race 3    average clarity

1  Boujie Girl   won her maiden debut so I like her chances of appreciating 2 months off......ran well in her lone route race to date as she beat 9 of 13 foes in a Grade 1 route race despite a slow beginning....... and works are awfully good

3  Kookie Gal   double barrel action as Miller also trains our top pick........filly won a 100K Cal-bred Stakes race in her 1st ever in a dirt route.......leading rider Prat stays put

4  Call Moon Bay   Hollendorfer three year old filly won by 5L to break her MSW in her latest which was also run at today's one mile distance and over at Lrc........and her race two back at SA at one mile is much but than appears in print.......Van Dyke goes to Baffert's 2 horse......Smith will do just fine

 

race 4    average clarity

1  See That Kat   big awakening in her 3rd lifetime start and 1st on the grass.......away since the grass race but her a.m. work is decent........trainer is hot and he retains Prat.......should be tough

5  Sutro   consistent closer and a fairly smooth runner.....that should make Mike Smith's job easier with the late running four year old filly

6  Decorating   pedigree and her running lines both suggest she will love another 1/16 of sod to cover.......rather hot rider/trainer combo of late in Talamo/Proctor

10  Minute Mile    SCRATCHED OUT OF RACE

3  Confidentially

 

race 5    below average clarity

3  Crown the Kitten   decent history with bug boy Espinoza up and also runs well off of short rest which is the case today.........and this race seemingly has a chance to set up for a late runner and with the small field there shouldn't be a lot of traffic to negotiate late

1  Muchos Besos   best at SA and drops to a level that he handles very well.......also has a super history breaking from the one hole in route races

4  Moneydontspenditself   if number 5 Little Scotty is doing poorly as I obviously think he is this gelding might get the front end making him dangerous

 

race 6    average clarity

5  Asano   very out of the norm for Keith Desormeaux to wheel a horse back in 7 days.......that hints that his colt's poor race in his latest might not have taken much out of him......race two back is strong........that and this youngster ran well in his 2nd lifetime start off of 14 days rest

6  Moonoverthebayou   one of the best stats (and very impressive) for Hess is MSW to MC (27% win with his last 33)........so the fact that this gelding went off at 44 to 1 in his MSW hints the race was nothing more than dirty him up sprint gimme to drop and go in today's route race

7  Platinum Nights    SCRATCHED OUT OF RACE   rider is struggling looking for his 1st win at the meet and the trainer isn't exactly on fire........as for the horse he fits fine if he handles his 1st at a route.......both trainer and rider could use a win

2  Palaleo

 

race 7    average clarity

9  Vantastic   lone race on the SA hill was a solid MSW breaking win and better than par for today's level when adjusted for a pace factor of about 2 or 3 lengths.......and today's rider is oh so much better on the hill than the jock who rode in the race down the hill

2  Haydens Havoc    SCRATCHED OUT OF RACE  nice 5F grass MSW win in his latest run in mid November at Del Mar.......handled six furlongs quite well in a dirt race two back......so.....I doubt the 6 1/2 furlongs of turf will be a problem

8  Seven Scents   decent 1st on the grass and the strength of the effort is disguised by a wide trip ........cut back from one mile turf to 6 1/2F down the hill is usually a good thing for a given horse who owns some early speed which he does

3  Urban Light   SCRATCHED OUT OF RACE

6  Damiano

 

race 8    average clarity

2  Mo See Cal   2 for 2 at today's one mile distance and one of those races was at Santa Anita and just happens to be her lifetime best........Mike Smith wisely stays put.......very reliable trainer at the helm

3  Just a Smidge   quite the awakening for this filly when last seen in mid September at Lrc running a very strong race with bug boy Espinoza up for the 1st time........Baffert must have really liked what he saw as he has put copious furlongs of work into his filly since suggesting he feels this filly has improved in a big way.......bug boy gets the call once again

1  Fool's Paradise   believe the connections will want the jock to take back early like she did to break her maiden 6 races back as there is plenty of early speed in this race.......her chances of hitting pay-dirt seem enhanced if that is the plan

 

race 9    below average clarity

7  Lucky Lately    SCRATCHED OUT OF RACE   bet fairly hard in her MSW debut but ran up the track.........works since her disappointing debut are impressive switches to the grass for her 2nd lifetime start which she has a decent enough pedigree to handle it.....should go off a price

3  Bella Chica   1st time starter seemingly has a good spot to debut in as this group appears to be on the soft side.......pedigree for a grass sprint is quite good......as is her jock Van Dyke who rides well in turf races down the hill

11 AE  Silk From Heaven    SCRATCHED OUT OF RACE   decent MSW debut at Lrc on 9 December.......improved works since........decent shot at a move forward today if of course she handles the turf

2  Settle It   best race was her debut where she ran 2nd to the boys in a MSW affair..........tossed two dull races after that.....might be best "fresh" and she has a pedigree that fits for a turf race.......dangerous sort

6  Scarlet Heat

1  She's a Brewer

 

 

Posted on January 11, 2019 at 6:21 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections