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Special Publication for Saturday 13 April 2019 covering the 7 Stakes races at Oaklawn Park and Keeneland

Good chance that the turf will be rated no worse than good at Keeneland despite Friday's rain. Main track should be fast. Heavy rain is in the forecast for OP on Saturday. So I leaned on the track being sloppy/muddy at Oaklawn..

Best of luck as always!!

 

Kee race 7   G3 Ben Ali  average clarity

4  Flameaway   appreciates Kee with a win and a 2nd on its main track in 2 starts.......and seems to fit Irad Ortiz awfully well (who doesn't) also with a win and a 2nd......two solid works since this Mark Casse colt arrived at Kee hint he is happy to be back on the Kee dirt and in top form......should be in the hunt from the get go

3  Third Day   white-hot rider at the meeting in Javier Castellano and especially in the "big races".........Brian Lynch five-year old gets the blinkers put on for the 1st time today which should help him focus early and sit fairly close to the lead which seems like a good thing in this affair with quite a few late running types

1  Just Whistle   2 wins and a 2nd in three lifetime races around two turns with one of those wins coming the only time this Michael Matz colt competed at Kee.......arguably his lifetime best was run last year shipping into Kee from GP and racing off of 42 days rest......last race was at GP off of 45 days rest.......very well-meant today and "well-meant" is half the battle when handicapping

8  Bonus Points

10  Nun the Less

6  Solomini

 

Kee race 8    F100K Giants Causeway  average clarity

8  Morticia   has a good history of moving forward 2nd following a layoff which is the case for today's race.......the gals that have posts inside of her appear to be either slower or faster in the early stages than she is.......so her rider has a great opportunity to get over and save some ground on the turn.......speaking of the rider Irad Ortiz is one of the best (if not the best) in the USA.........and Ortiz makes for quite the rider upgrade.......five year old mare seems poised for a top effort and with the best grass rider that has ever been on her back aboard

4  Surrender Now   made quite the splash in 2017 at two with two daylight wins at SA to begin her career.....after three bad efforts she tried the grass and it led to two straight 5F wins in the summer of 2018......and the last 5F turf win was powerful and a strong fit here........away since those grass races but Miller is outstanding at getting sprint grass horses to fire fresh off of the bench.......dangerous sort with plenty of potential

5  Student Body   five-year old mare is a perfect 5 for 5 when she opens up a clear lead by the half which she has a shot at doing here.......there is other speed in here but she might have the most and the biggest incentive to get a loose lead at all costs

6  La Dame Blanche

 

Kee Race 9    G3 Lexington  average clarity

1  Shang   talk about on the improve with each and every start......and his last start for Steve Asmussen was one easy 9 length win where the rider eased up late to save plenty of horse for today.......and the horses running at the FG's win their fair share shipping into Kee.......Irad Ortiz jumps on his brothers mount as Jose is riding for Bob (better not pass on the opportunity) Baffert.......three year old colt should get a nice mid pack ground saving trip at least thru turn one with plenty of speed up front to soften each other up

4  Anothertwistafate  very talented N Cal invader has earned numbers in two consecutive 9 furlongs affairs that look awfully good here if he can produce similar today on the Kee surface.......cut back in distance should be a plus as should a significant rider upgrade.......colt should be in the mix from the get go

8  Owendale   toss out his latest in a Grade 2 at FG where he had a brutal trip......previous race at the Fairgrounds was a solid effort albeit on a track rated good.......like the jock switch to Geroux who teams up exceptionally well with trainer Brad Cox........as in 34% win & 64% in the money with their last 47

3  Sueno

9  Zenden

 

Kee race 10    G1 F & M Jenny Wiley above average clarity

2  Rushing Fall   best credentials in the field and the race shape sure appears to favor who will be on or near the lead which is where she should be.......regular rider Javier Castellano remains up........good post........2 for 2 at Keeneland.......handles firm or yielding turf........USA's best turf trainer in Chad Brown........many reasons to put this (7 6 1 0) lifetime filly as our top pick-a-rue

4  Rymska   another Chad Brown runner who owns quite the credentials in her own right but is a notch less than his star runner Rushing Fall........but it is interesting that he has kept this girl away from facing her barn mate until today........that suggests she might be the sharpest of her career which she will need to be to get barn bragging rights following today's one mile grass race

1  Phantom Opening   as mentioned in our top selection's comments this race seems to favor those who can sit close up early which this mare has done multiple times in the past breaking from the 1 post like today.......jockey upgrade..........numbers say it is unlikely she wins but she might get a slice of money at a big price

7  Got Stormy

3  Princess Warrior

 

OP race 4  G3 Count Fleet above average clarity

1  Mitole   talk about a Grade 3 sprint race that came up soft for this top-notch sprinter.........that and he happens to be the only speed in the field.......rider Richard Santana is (6 5 1 0) on the colt........and the colt has shown he can handle an off track......will get hammered at the windows

4  Whitmore  2nd best speed in the field has the opportunity to sit in a distance stalk position behind our top choice.......like our top pick this six-year-old gelding handles the off track well.......regular rider Santana predictably opts to ride the one horse..........Luis Saez will do just fine

5  Operation Stevie   solid move forward 2nd out after a 3 month break in a one mile route......races just fine at today's six furlong distance and also on an off track.......should be motoring late but it sure appears he has a tall task as this race sure seems to favor those up close early

 

OP race 9  G2 Oaklawn H.  average clarity

1  Tenfold   likely had this prestigious race in mind prior to his layoff run in his last at the Fairgrounds.........so it is easy to ignore his off the board finish in an allowance race.......stout drills since the 5 March race with the blinkers going on for the first time......only lifetime race on a sloppy track he nearly beat eventual Triple Crown winner Justify.....2 for 3 lifetime at OP

6  Giant Expectations   showed he can handle the OP surface in his latest with a better than it looks in print 3rd in a non Graded but $350K Stakes affair.......but what really stands out is his effort 2 back at SA in a Grade 2 where he dueled in a nasty set of fractions in the slop and still held for 3rd only beaten by two outstanding S Cal horses either of which would be odds on in this field

2  Pioneer Spirit  latest racing endeavor is interesting as this 6-year-old finished up much better in his latest rather than flattening out as he usually does......the reason seems to be that he sat mid pack instead being part of the early pace.......2 for 4 on an off track and one of the 2 wins is arguably the best race of his career

8  Lone Sailor

9  Rated R Superstar

 

OP race 11    G1 Ark Derby average clarity

1  Improbable   brutal trip at OP in the G2 Rebel as he ran unbelievable wide especially considering it was only a 7 horse field.......tons the best in the race by my book........see ya Van Dyke and hello Jose Ortiz.......goes from the outer most to the inner most post......blinkers on and back to back solid 6F endurance building works to help get the added distance......yet to see an off track but he owns a good pedigree for one

3  Omaha Beach   barely beat our top choice in the aforementioned Rebel Stakes with a much better trip........but his lifetime best was two back in a very sloppy 7F affair at SA......he might love the off going thus making for a very dangerous Richard Mandella three-year old

7  Galilean   last likely won't do the trick but his race 2 back might where he ran very wide up on the pace and still won by 4 1/2 lengths albeit vs Cal-breds in a $200K Stakes.......like our top choice this is his 1st on an off track but his pedigree suggests he can handle a surface other than fast

8  Country House

5  Laughing Fox

 

 

 

Posted on April 2, 2019 at 5:06 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections