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Santa Anita for Saturday 4 May 2019

Santa Anita has put together a very nice Saturday card. 20 Pick six carryover is now $314K.

Best of luck as always!

 

Kentucky Derby  race 12  at Churchill Downs

16  Game Winner   two straight wide trips in a row and in his latest he was also close to the pace......he has earned  adjusted for position and pace Santucci figs multiple times that can win the Derby if he handles the grueling 10 furlongs......his pedigree for the 10F by my book is as good as anyone in the race.......1st on an off track (most likely) but he also is bred well for that too.......all that and I love the solid very deep track works he put in at SA which should really build up his stamina.......and last but not least he dominated the field to win easy in last years BC Juv which was at Churchill Downs

8  Tacitus   on the improve with each and every start for Bill Mott and company and like our top selection his pedigree screams the longer the better........that and he is battled tested as he was bounced around some in the WoodMen-G2 a couple of times and still drew off in the stretch to win

7  Maximum Security   one crazy undefeated three-year old colt who just gallops regularly to get ready for his races but somehow still runs his eyeballs out come race day.....and he might feel really good coming off some soft stress free on the lead fractions........Maximum Security is one or the most difficult Derby horses to figure especially for someone like myself who studies and uses work patterns to elevate a given horses readiness

5  Improbable   another Baffert colt who only lost his last two races because of wide trips......showed he can handle an off track in his latest in the G1 ArkDerby.........like Roadster I am slightly leery of him getting 10 furlongs with his pedigree........mostly because of dad's side of the equation

10  Cutting Humor  well I liked this colt as a long-shot before Mike Smith got the mount (and found that out just two minutes prior to doing the comments for this fellow) and I like him more with the rider change......it will hurt his price some but not that much.........colt is training great for Pletcher and company and he exits a fast SunDrby-G3........the Sun track is lightning fast in general but 1:46:4 for 9F is still ultra impressive for a three-year old in March.......Smith should work out a nice mid pack trip from a decent post

17  Roadster  Smith choose the scratched Omaha Beach over this Baffert horse so that is not a positive......he does pick up one fine young rider in Geroux and now the colt gets to break from a better post than the 0 for 40 17th post (in the Derby) he had before two scratches.........colt is improving and will likely once again today........but........I am slightly leery of him getting 10 furlongs with his pedigree......thus 6th choice

 

Santa Anita

race 1    average clarity (SHF carryover of $10,821 for this race)

4  Baby Gronk   Bill Spawr four-year old has run too well not to have graduated in 3 races at SA.......running 2nd in all three with very strong times/figs and with gaps of five, five and ten lengths to 3rd......away 11 months but training like he is ready to roll fresh off of the bench just like he did last year off of a long layoff......1st on the turf but owns a good pedigree for it

8  Posterize   significant move forward in his latest both in pace and final time fig........proven on the lawn.......seems like the most likely to grab the front end with only five furlongs of turf to cover

2  Dubnation   good early speed for this D'Amato four-year old should put him in the mix early........and the cut back in distance sure looks like a good thing as he has been flattened out in more conventional sprint distances

1  Juggles

5  Jen Go Unchained

 

race 2    above average clarity

2  Hard Not to Love   trainer John Shirreffs has turned back the clock and is having one terrific SA meeting and he can keep the good times going with this filly who has run two powerful winning races in two lifetime starts......that and in her 2nd lifetime start she showed she can handle the deepened SA surface

4  Sneaking Out   Hollendorfer filly has a nice stalking style and that might come in handy here as the 3 runners inside of him might duke it out on or near the front end.....and like our top choice he showed he can handle a deep SA main track

5  Miss My Rose  filly won like a good thing in her MSW debut overcoming a tardy start and still managing to win going away at the wire by 2 widening lengths.....3 sharp works since......she needs a forward move today and she might be up for it with a race under her belt and some good a.m. work since

 

race 3    below average clarity

2  Maxim Rate   Simon Callaghan has made the most of his 34 starts in 2019 as in 41% win and 62% in the money and with an ROI of +3.49......yikes-o-rama......both lifetime adjusted for trip Santucci figs are better than par for today's Graded 3 level......good post and a Hall of Fame rider up who seems to be snapping out of a small funk

4  Miss Flawless   won her 1st race in her 2nd lifetime start in France off of 12 days rest.....next win came 22 later......3rd win came 2nd out after 2 month layoff and it was run off of 16 days rest.....with that in mind her 1st in the U S of A run after a 4 1/2 month layoff was likely a tune-up to set her up for today's race run off of 28 days rest.......it's not rocket science

6  Hostess   double barrel action from the Callaghan barn as he also trains our top pick.........filly beat our top choice and her barn pal in her last.......and if Prat was still up she might have been made top choice as today's rider in 2 for his last 52 on the sod

 

race 4    average clarity

4  Roaring Fork  SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE  last 3 SA one mile races for this Sean McCarthy four-year old fit here and have led to 2 wins and a 2nd......that and Gryder has options as this gelding is capable of winning on or off of the pace

1  Implicitly  colt is 2 for 2 on fast rated dirt when he has been loose on the lead like his last race........and right now you can't ask for a more reliable fast breaking gate jock up in Edwin Maldonado

5  Camino de Estrella   vet scratch on 13 April but 2 works since and the last of which is rather decent.......that and questionable horses are getting more scrutinized by the vets than they were in the past......so the drop of $9,000 following a win doesn't concern me as much

 

race 5    below average clarity

3  Ellie Arroway   in a race that sure appears wide open it seems like a good spot for a filly who had a sprint dirt tune-up and then put in some good a.m. work both in preparation for today's turf route........that and everything Victor Espinoza rides for Sadler has been live since his return from injury.....believe this filly will show speed today and sit close to the front.....should be a price

11  Miss Bigly   both lifetime races which were on the grass fit solidly in this spot.........filly has been absent since last October but her works indicate she is returning ready to roll.......not an easy post for Kent Desormeaux to deal with but his mount appears to have tactical speed which should enhance his chances of getting on over by turn one

1  Zest   useful dirt sprint debut and 3 endurance drills since.......and she draws a decent post for the bug boy to work out a good trip........that and Clifford Sise has won 3 of his last 10 "1st on the grass"

5  Tagline

7  Catch My Eye

6  Fashion Island

 

race 6    average clarity

2  Cats Blame  better than it appears effort in his latest and returns to the race wars off of 28 days rest......and his last win came 2nd out following a layoff 3 races back......seems well-meant and the extra furlong to work with this afternoon appears to be a plus

3  Royal Trump   last two racing endeavors are better than par for today's level.......can he put together a 3rd one off of the rigors of 3 races in 28 days.......if he does he has as good a shot as anyone of visiting the winners circle

6  Make It a Triple  last two races fit at today's level but what really catches my eye is the vastly improved speed this fellow displayed in his last on the deepened SA main track......Vinnie Brednar might be able to get loose with his biggest speed opponent breaking from a tougher post in which to get the lead

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Lucky Patrick   back to back solid races/figs........one up with the pace setters and one sitting off of the pace setters........and his latest race is arguably the best of his career and it was run on the new deeper SA surface

4  Kidmon   all of this guy's races sprinting on conventional dirt fit well here......not nuts about this gelding dropping again but the owner has a boat load of horses and might care less about losing him as long as he wins

2  Vander Kelen   won for fun the only time this fellow found himself loose on the lead albeit on an off track.......decent opportunity to get loose in this spot

3  Iron Curtain

5  Shaymin

 

race 8    above average clarity

4  Coil Me Home  very consistent sort just ran a very impressive 2nd in the 7 April version of the nw alw race as he broke tardy and then ran wide on a day the rail was slightly biased........that and he should be just off of the lead in this race lacking speed in what should be a soft pace

5  Flagstaff   laid up Sadler five-year old whose younger brother is Game Winner has a decent chance to grab the lead and set some soft fractions.....that is if he his fit enough off of a long layoff.......decent a.m. work suggests that he is

2  Dia de Pago   talented colt also seems ready fresh off of the bench with a prolonged series of tightly spaced every 6 days works (a la Mike Mitchell style)........still he might need more pace than anticipated to get up in time as he likely will be towards the rear of the field in the early stages

6  Oggonis

 

race 9    average clarity

5  Count Alexander   colt runs well fresh and appreciates the SA grass course........believe Franco will sit mid pack (and be no worse than 2 wide on the 1st turn) which likely will be a plus in this affair with quite a bit of speed

3  Ya Gotta Wanna   hard to believe that this five-year old has only run 4 times at the one mile turf distance because he has won 3 on those 8F affairs all of which were at SA.......and he is 0 for 7 at all other turf distances.....should be flying from far back late

7  Majestic Eagle   it took awhile but Drysdale's light bulb finally went on as he is putting the blinkers back on this fellow following 6 straight races without them........previous 4 with them on ? (4 2 2 0)

2  United

8  Starting Bloc

 

race 10    average clarity

6  Scarlet   MSW debut way back in July isn't bad despite being a 12L beaten 4th as the final time was very fast for the level and she had the bit of a wide trip......but more importantly she is training as if she is returning as an improved individual.........R Mandella is hot and he has won with 20 of his last 100 coming off of layoffs greater than 3 months

4  True Mischief   low percentage trainer in Richard Baltas with MSW 1st time starters but this filly is training at Slr too well to ignore......if she takes to the SA surface she should be a player here

7  Hang a Star   pressed a quick set of fractions early and faded as most would as the final time was eye-popping for the now deep SA main track......that and she might not have been all that wound up as she went off at 37 to 1.....reassuring 5F work since her debut......should be a player if she makes a logical move forward

2  So Much Money

9  Road Ranger

 

race 11    average clarity 

(13 AE  Breezy Bee  has a shot if she draws into the field)

4  Lucky Stepper   race lacks speed and because of that this filly has enough to get on over by the 1st turn and likely wind up no worse than 2 wide on the 1st turn......heck she might even be on the lead for Victor Espinoza

8  K P Satellite   Mullins is not so hot with maiden debut runners but this filly has put in many furlongs of work at one week intervals......that and she is up for a tag rather than in a protected MSW race.......both hint she is a "go" in her debut

10  Sapori Girl   on the improve with each and every race and the improvement in her latest which was the 14 April version of this race is disguised by breaking slightly tardy and racing too wide

3  Boldest Vow

2  Beyond Pleasure

 

Posted on May 4, 2019 at 5:43 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections