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Breeders Cup at Santa Anita for Friday 1 November 2019

Breeders Cup Day 1

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    above average clarity

5  Campaign   very strong races/figs in his three 12 furlong races on the dirt......and his pedigree suggests (as does his running lines) that he is just getting started at 12F and that 14F is made to order........good rider/trainer combo in Sadler and Rosario

1  Itsinthepost   only lifetime dirt race was a 2nd place finish behind our top pick by 1 1/4 at the wire.......he stalked in the race and maybe moved a little early.......look for Van Dyke to sit back off of things more today to have something left for the stretch

4  Zestful   from a 7L win back in Feb in a $8K claimer to a 6L win in a $100K Stakes race in mid September 9 races later........should be loose as he normally is and if allowed to slow things down to a crawl he might be tough to wheel in

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Opus Won   looking for his 12 May race run off of 5 months rest where she pressed a very hot pace and still managed to come home a winner to graduate.......so with a big work tab showing and racing off of 3 months rest today she might be up for a repeat effort......and she draws a good speed rider in Johnny V.

8  Zuzanna   there is the potential of a hot pace in this nw alw race and if that is what occurs it can play into the hands of this off pace mare from the Hess barn

1  Rayana   very solid two year old MSW debut to graduate in a race run 14 months ago and at today's one mile turf distance......not much cooking in her only race in 2019 running a so so sprint in June..........but training sharply for race number 3 and Baffert is able to get Rosario.......needs to avoid a speed duel with our top selection one way or another

9  Heathers Grey

5  Rockin Ready

 

race 3    below average clarity

4  Warren's Showtime   turf to dirt and a full furlong cut back in distance........and for a trainer in Craig Lewis who has had his fair share of bad racing luck and has still managed a 17% win percent for 2019.......Velez has been on the filly for all four of her lifetime races and for the most part handled her well

12  Smiling Shirlee   not crazy about the post but we do get one significant rider upgrade........my guess is Rosario will take back and do his best to get get this filly over to the inside and save as much ground as he can........work tab has never been better for this Bonde mare which is likely one of the reasons the connections lured Rosario to accept the mount

11  Been Studying Her   another with a difficult post but this filly has plenty of tactical speed for Mike Smith to utilize and work out a decent trip

2  Almost a Factor

5  Stradari

8  Bulletproof One

 

race 4    average clarity

7  Chipper   very impressive MSW debut running 2nd to our 2nd selection but doing so with a tough trip (broke a little slow - boxed/blocked 2 lengths and bumped in the stretch some.......solid reassuring work since....pedigree to handle the extended sprint distance of 7F is very good.....trainer is finishing up the Fall SA with a flourish

2  Cali Dude  like our top selection this gelding had a strong MSW debut in which he was able to graduate at 1st asking despite dueling in par like pace........and it is a much more difficult task to win at 6 1/2 furlongs in your debut than say 6 & 6 1/2F........not easy to separate top two

11  Square Deal   gelding on paper might look the best but in actuality his top effort in five races isn't as good (but close) as the 2 & & 7 ran in their only lifetime race........that and the post he starts from is no picnic........still a dangerous but easy to make our 3rd pick-a-rue

8  Great Ulysses

4  Dapper

 

race 5    BC Juvenile Turf Sprint 

9  Four Wheel Drive   absolutely two dynamite sprint turf times in both lifetime races which were validated by 3 length wins.......trainer's forte is with young turf sprinters.......I could see this colt getting caught 3 wide on the turn and still winning.......Irad Ortiz wisely sticks around

2  Band Practice   two year old filly won 3 straight turf races in a row overseas including a win vs. the boys in her latest......all three races had some big gaps to either 2nd and/or 2nd and 3rd.......that and she has a decent post and has some early gas

7  Kimari   Wesley Ward trains our top choice and also this filly who has done nothing wrong in 4 lifetime starts including overcoming a slow start and still managing to circled the field and get up to win vs. the boys

6  Alligator Alley

10  A'Ali

 

race 6    BC Juvenile Turf

4  Decorated Invader   on the improve with each and every race all of which were in turf routes.......only two year old in the race to win a Grade 1......good rider - good trainer who knows how to ship west and win - good post - 1st time on Lasix and with stout a.m. preparation showing........hard not to like that many positives

7  Andesite   Brad Cox colt won his debut like a good thing and then shipped to Saratoga for a Grade 3 where he sat too far off a no pace affair which led to him having little chance to make up ground in the stretch......then he ran 2nd by a head in a solid Belmont 1 1/16 turf race.......a.m. work since his last is improved hinting he will fire his lifetime best today......1st time Rosario

3  Peace Achieved   colt has some early turf route speed and the two runners lined up inside of him do not.....so he should be on the wood on turn one in up close position........strong best to date work on 18 Oct hints he likely is up for his best yet

2  Structor

12  Arizona

5  Vitalogy

 

race 7    BC Juvenile Fillies

6  Bast   only two year old filly two have won two Grade one races and the 2nd one was at SA where she earned a number that is par like for today's level.......and she did it running a bit wide on the day the rail was the place to hang-out......Baffert with a home court advantage with a two year old.......tough to beat that

7  Wicker Whisper   expensive Asmussen filly won both her lifetime starts by a combined 9 lengths.....her number earned in her latest a Grade 1 win at Belmont is every bit as good or better than our top choice......but it was in a one turn mile.....if she handles the two turns and the SA surface she should be equally matched our with our top selection

4  British Idiom   like our 2nd choice she is coming off of a Grade 1 route win which was at Kee and she also won both her races by wide margins in her case a combined 10 lengths.......trainer Brad Cox is awfully dangerous on the big race days and the Breeders Cup obviously is one of them........not out of the win picture by any means......pun intended

1  Donne Veloce

2  Two Sixty

 

race 8    BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

4  Abscond   tepid top pick in a race difficult to decipher won her first turf route like a good thing and it was in a Grade 1 at Woodbine.......and she owns some early speed in a race that doesn't have that much signed up......good post to utilize it and she retains outstanding grass rider Irad Ortiz.....should get a good trip and many in this large field will not

2  Croughavouke   brutal trip in latest losing about 6 lengths to trip and still closed fast to snatch 2nd.......see ya Van Dyke and hello Prat.......good post and an underrated turf conditioner in Jeff Mullins.......should go off one big price

5  Daahyeh   two year old filly trained by a young up and coming trainer out of GB has done little won in 5 lifetime grass races in GB and Ire (5 3 2 0).......four of her five races were Graded affairs.......she definitely fits well today if she handles her 1st around two turns

7  Crystalle

9  Albigna

12  Sweet Melania

 

race 9    BC Juvenile

6  Eight Rings  both lifetime wins are very solid efforts/figs that peg him as a BC caliper two year old champion but he is quirky as witnessed by his start 2 back where he ducked in sharply and dumped his rider......my guess is Velasquez/Baffert will want him on or near the lead as outside of our 2nd choice the race sure lacks speed for a two year old Grade 1 route.........seems like a ton if he behaves

1  Dennis' Moment  most promising two year old that I can ever remember Dale Romans having.......like our top selection he has shown that he more than belongs in this prestigious race and he a very deserving co favorite........work tab is brilliant

4  Storm the Court   wide trip on an inside day saw him finishing 8 lengths behind Eight Rings......he earned an adjusted for trouble Santucci fig that is 4L less than Baffert's horse.......works since the race hint he's moving forward today......connections will likely have their fingers crossed that the 1 & the 6 end up dueling on the lead

5  Scabbard

2  Wrecking Crew

 

race 10    average clarity

11  Justinian   Baffert youngster broke a little slow and still managed to cut out some solid fractions to graduate in his 2nd start and as our top pick.....if he has held his form and gets a better trip he sure deserves to be our top pick once again

2  Candy Cornall   lone race run at the somewhat specialized distance of 7F is his best effort/number of his career.......bug boy Diaz is really starting to ride well and now seems worth his 5 lbs break......trainer Shirreffs has been on fire......very dangerous contender

8  Threefiveindia   a good portion of this gelding's dirt career fits solidly at today's level of racing......and 1st out following a claim by Miller is a very dangerous thing especially when he puts this new addition up for the same tag he took him for.......hard not to respect

1  Rogallo 

4  Eagle Song

7  Secret Courier

 

 

 

Posted on October 31, 2019 at 7:25 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information, Selections