Santa Anita for Saturday 13 May 2017

Difficult card to decipher. Sunday's card was not. If I play today I am thinking about leaning on / keying around Prat's horses as they all seem to be good mounts. He has mounts in races 1,5,6,7,9. Be back with you for Mother's Day.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    below average clarity

2  Desert Law   tepid top pick is working well for his MSW debut for Carla Gaines who goes against the grain as she is more dangerous with 1st timers debuting on the grass than the dirt....mom has tossed two grass winners

1  Nap Lajoie   moved forward in his 2nd lifetime start with 1st time Prat up.......1st on the sod today and he owns a decent pedigree for it......and by my book Prat is the best rider of young developing grass runners on the grounds

8  Hollywood Squares   very solid grass breeding and not too shabby of a work tab for this O'Neill 1st time starter.....would have rated higher if it wasn't for the trainer being 0 for his last 20 (and likely more than that) with turf debut runners

7  Mor Candy

Long-shot consideration:   5  Miracle March   Dean Pederson can get the job done with maiden first time starters but he does have something to prove with turf debut runners.......good grass pedigree and a nice work series......believe he will be higher than his ML

 

race 2    below average clarity

5  Omega Moon   expensive purchase from the Baffert barn was ready to roll as a two-year (training well) when he had to be laid up....returns with a decent maybe less impressive work series but still good enough to be a major player in this fairly soft looking group

7  Captain Chaos   another pricey at sale debut runner working like he is ready to rock and rock in his debut in this case for Peter Miller and company.......good rider/trainer combo to say the least

6  Gold Shot   MSW debut was way back in September for Baltas and company and impressive in that after falling back to last this colt showed some solid late pace......work tab seems adequate......like the switch to Nakatani who since his return to S Cal has teamed up with Baltas for many winners

8  Mr. Twinery

 

race 3    above average clarity

5  American Pastime   was our top choice in his debut because of a very strong work tab for a Hess MSW 1st time starter as the veteran trainer doesn't often push them very hard in the a.m.......and he ran even stronger than I envisioned ........wide up on a strong pace and still crushed em....Stakes like works since.......should be a ton

3  Alley Boss   like the cut back in distance for this Molly Pearson four year old colt........and his recent works....but something will have to go wrong with our top choice for this colt to win this race

7  Stormy Rocil   can really fly so if the race track turns out to be a good speed day maybe he can open up a lead and never get caught

4  Blue Anchor

 

race 4    average clarity

4  Arms Runner   very impressive MSW debut which was also down the SA hill grass course.......that race was 23 days ago yet this colt has been able to hit the track to work 3X......feeling good.....ready to move forward

7  Cistron   turf route speed cutting back to a turf sprint is usually a very dangerous maneuver.....and like our top selection this colt is sharp in the a.m.......and Mr. Baze appears to be a good fit on him

2  Big League   double barrel action from the Miller barn as he also trains our top selection.......3 of 4 lifetime races on the main track fit here if of course he can run as well on the sod...........mom has tossed 2 grass winners.....dangerous sort

1  City Storm

 

race 5    below average clarity

5  Sutton Impact   Bejarano might have taken our 2nd choice over this guy but I think this maiden debut winner has more upside as he cruised home as if he left something in the tank.....like last time he should be in the hunt from the get go

6  Aristocratic   Bejarano rides thru the change in trainers.....won his last on the front end here but he is capable of running off of the lead some and I like his chances better if the is the way the connections see it

2  Kimbear   easily the best of the late runners in the field and there seems to be a decent shot that he will get what he needs.....as in a very lively pace up front

 

race 6    average clarity

5  Cheekaboomboom   ridiculously wide trip in last hides a good effort on the grass.....only other grass race which was his MSW is also hidden in that he closed well into a pedestrian pace......and most importantly he gets a very significant rider upgrade

7  Chatterman   our long-shot play in his last had a brutal trip as he clipped heels badly (and some other trouble) or would have won.....1st on the lawn but bred well for it......dangerous sort

4  Gosofar   ice cold trainer might get his 1st win of the year.....good sign Stevens sticks around......likely needs a small move forward.....recent 4F near bullet work hints he might be up to one

10  Kingsriverking

 

race 7    below average clarity

9  Big Papi   toss out his turf race.....toss out this AW race.....finally gets back to the "real" dirt.........very solid MSW at Tampa on the dirt....training at SA very nicely on the dirt.......drops into claiming for the 1st time.....seems ready and well placed to succeed

3  Informality   barns hot and a chunk of that is with Prat up.......only time up for a tag this colt won for fun......so the connections likely once again will have him more than ready today with the threat of losing him looming

2  Redneck Crazy   fits OK...... bu.....t what a hanger with one win and eight 2nd's in twenty-five starts.....yikes

5  We Go Now

 

race 8    below average clarity

9  Tanners Pride   Koriner is often at his most dangerous 1st time in maiden claiming like today......and this colt appears to have muscled up from his turf race as his a.m. work is improved

10  Mizter Kool Cat   needs a drop and gets it today........ race 2 back fits although it was a grass sprint,,,,,but I like his pedigree better to handle the dirt

4  My Boy Rudy   dangerous rider/trainer over the years in Maldonado/Glatt......and mom has tossed 3 winners from 3 starters.....hmmm

6  Marvelous Kaos

 

race 9    below average clarity

3  Eileen's Girl   Stevens likely will recognize he can sit on or near the lead here in an affair seemingly set up for those who do.....and you should get a heck of a price for an Eurton/Stevens runner

1  Blame It On Alphie    Mandella runner has been absent since Sept. but he is popping bullets in the morning and she won her MSW debut like a good thing.....Smith is up and like Prat I believe he will hustle this filly early

9  All That Heat   fired her lifetime best in latest and retains Prat who likely had his choice of some of the other contenders in the race.......and Glatt is very good at getting back to back wins out of a horse

8  Salsita

6  Arethusa

4  Stylish in Black

Posted on May 13, 2017 at 10:44 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Santa Anita for Friday 12 May 2017

OK card today. Let's call it a 6.5 on the 1 to 10 scale of things.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1   below average clarity

3  Rockantheros   seemed like a bad claim back on March 23rd as this filly missed the board at 1-2 and at a lower level.....but 7 weeks later her works indicate her new trainer (2 for his last 5 1st out after a claim and one other in the money) has a handle on what she needs.....race three back would crush these.....don't need that race but somewhere close to it

5  Watch Me Now  I like when bug boys are in small fields because of the lack of traffic.....they have a better chance of putting their weight break to good use because they have less of a chance of putting on the brakes somewhere in the race.... thus....not taking away from any momentum

4  Basie Boots   filly needs her "A game" and might be up for it today as arguably her best to date on a fast track was the last time she saw 5 1/2F at SA back in June of last year

 

race 2    average clarity

1  Medaglia Gold  works for this Sise two-year old 1st timer at Slr are impressive and hint he has plenty off early gas.....mom has tossed one winner from one starter and a Stakes winner at that

4  Argosy Fleet   Truman has been very hot of late and might keep the ball rolling here with this 1ster......like that the baby was able to put in two straight 5F drills to finish off his a.m. preparation....1/2 furlong further than today's distance

6  Summer's Burst   Brocklebank also has been heating things up of late and he is very dangerous in this early two-year old races.....works sure are solid

8  Stop the Violence

 

race 3    average clarity

3  David's Memory   five-year old gelding is really getting good and gets a rider upgrade to one who is struggling on the grass to one who is not....should be in the hunt from the get go

4  Bombard   all four lifetime grass races on firm turf fit fine in this spot......laid up since August but he ran well in his MSW debut and the race was also down the majestic Santa Anita hill turf course....and his a.m. work sure hints he is wound up like a top

1  Indavidualist   2nd start for his new trainer and Miller sure appears to have tweaked something for the better (most likely blinkers on for today and maybe something else) as his a.m. work is vastly better .....a major form reversal is likely in the cards for this fellow

8  Alaskan Son

 

race 4    average clarity

1  Magical Lucy   seems like a very good claim but O'Neill as this filly won at 1st asking and has trained very well for her new trainer since....and we get a major rider upgrade....such a deal

5  Rizzi's Honors   consistently fires decent efforts but she is screaming for a cut back in distance.....gets it this afternoon.....and I like that T C Baze knows her well having been up for all 6 of her lifetime races

3  Sly Humor   tried the grass in last and didn't appear to care for it.....back to the dirt where she fits just fine.....bug boy has ridden this girl well

6  Reckless Charm

 

race 5    average clarity

4  Algorhythmic   vastly improved 1st out following the Mike Machowsky claim and in a SA hill race like today.....works sine hint she has held form.....if she has she should make it two straight despite stepping up in class

2  Herunbridledpower     seems like a great spot for blinkers on because the equipment change should greatly enhance her chances of getting a loose lead in a race lacking speed

9  Mizzen Glory   recent a.m. work hints at a form reversal as does the fact Prat gets on for the first time for a runner that has been beaten a combined 30L in her last two........both lifetime firm turf routes are better than appear in print....has won a dirt sprint.....so my guess is the hill will not be a problem

7  Lady Espionage   

 

race 6    above average clarity

7  Caray   4 of their last 5 are wins for the Baltas/Delgadillo combo.......preparatory works for this race are impressive especially considering the level.....should be pedal to the metal for the get go.....Baltas is dynamite 1st time at a route

4  Super Echelon   last was solid and now Keith Desormeaux gets his brother to ride....the weight break with the bug boy up in last was nice but I'll take Kent Desormeaux with more weight in the saddle at a route any day over an average at best (put getting better) apprentice rider like Solis

5  Waldorf   continues to work as if he can run some despite showing only speed in his debut....but that speed has a shot to put him on the lead in his 1st route race which would make him dangerous

6  Vow's Son

 

race 7    below average clarity

1  Tough It Out   should be a quick set of fractions is this affair that can play into the hands of this late runner........who.....might really fly down the stretch with the 7 lbs bug buy up

3  African Fighter   McAnally has one win in 9 starts in 2017 and it was the only time he legged up Talamo.......laid up 5-year-old drops for his return to the race wars and does so with one nice work series showing.....like our top choice things have a decent chance to set up and flatter his off pace style

5  Terzetto   last seems like the gimme to drop into claiming and go go go today........does have to cope with other speed or might have considered placing higher

6  I'll Wrap It Up

 

race 8    average clarity

10  Set You Free   liked needed last and/or was always pointed for his 2nd start and 1st time in maiden claiming.....debut down the hill might do the trick but if I am correct in my assessment that he was pointed for his 2nd out he has a good chance of moving forward today and being quite tough

3  Little Ninja   works are good.....pedigree is good.....jock is super with young grass horses.......seems meant and ready for her maiden debut and at the softest maiden level offered on the grass

1  Te Amo Mamo   last fits at today's lower level and gets to carry 4 lbs less today.....would have rated higher if it wasn't for the fact that Ocampo has very little experience riding down the tricky SA hill grass course

7  Amore Gattina

5  She's to Blame

2  Holiday Movie

 

Posted on May 12, 2017 at 10:54 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Santa Anita for Thursday 11 May 2017

Fairly decent card today and the same applies for Friday. And it sure is nice that sunny Cal is back.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    above average clarity

7  Pellucid  brutal trip in her USA debut which was also down the hill.....broke slowly - rank - rushed some - blocked in the stretch.......nice bullet work since......switch to Prat who sure handles young developing grass horses well

3  Generous Pour   seems best on the sod and gets back on it today........race 2 back was impressive running very wide and still only missing a win by 3/4 of a length.....1st down the hill but she has won a sprint dirt race so I doubt she will have a problem coping with the zig zag and then one large turn 6 1/2 furlong configuration

5  Grand Prix   short of the top two fig wise but she continues to train awfully well hinting she hasn't reached her potential on the grass so far.....and Stevens who picks his spots sticks around for a 3rd straight race

1  Lindeza

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Paschalitsa   race two back on the dirt fits solidly here and her last on the grass is much stronger than appears in print and even a stronger fig/effort than her dirt race.......she can sit 1st or 2nd down the back side with a good speed rider in Maldonando at the helm........big week for Truman last week

3  Sheswildnfree   cut back in distance of 1/16th appears to be a plus.........best looking work in a while (and it is somewhat subtle improvement) put in on May 6th.......off pace type will be hoping our top and 3rd choices want the same thing.....as in the lead

5  Scathing   likely needs a little more than her latest to beat our top choice and might be up for it as Cerin has been more dangerous with 2nd outings following a claim......... popping for 4 of his last 12 with 4 others hitting the board

 

race 3    average clarity

6  Ground Rules    nice races run to begin his career back in 2015......fell off a cliff in 2016......woke up some in his 2nd start in 2017 in a race run 8 weeks ago.......since that race he has put in copious furlongs of work......monumental rider upgrade for today......needs more than his last at today's tougher level and seems like to provide it

4  Kristi's Copilot   like the switch back to Baze who was up for his career best 3 races back......if he can get as good an effort out of this Ian Kruljac gelding once again he should have been top pick-a-rue

1  City Steel   nice record "at the distance" (14 5 3 3).......but.......seeming needs a rebound of sorts as he has slipped slightly of late and gets assigned 128 lbs.....should be in the win picture (no pun intended) if he provides one

 

race 4    average clarity

3  Social Taboo   nearly broke her maiden in her debut in a very "key" race with some decent a.m. work showing.......since the race her works are much better than decent.....surprised Baltas doesn't move her up but then again she is a Louisiana-bred.......and she gets the meets leading rider in Bejarano

5  Moon Kitty   best ever and a very solid fit here was run turf to dirt off of 22 days rest in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint.....same scenario this afternoon except this time racing off of 20 days rest ......that'll do.....LOL

8  Yellow Bonnet   finally gets back to sprinting following 3 lackluster route races.....seems quite dangerous dropping from MSW racing down to MC40K.......should be flying late

7  Painting Corners

 

race 5    average clarity

2  Banze No Oeste   3 of his 4 lifetime races down the hill fit well here and that includes his latest.......Miller wisely moves him up a couple of levels.....good history running off of short rest.......19 days since his last qualifies for that

8  Yes Yes Yes   don't want to jinx the guy but since I started covering S Cal racing Pedroza has never handled the grass as well he is right now......and one example of that was this six-year-old runner's race 2 back at 6 1/2F on the grass which was his best ever on the hill and with it was with Pedroza up.....that effort fits very well here

5  Aotearoa   needs to bring his "A game" and he will fit just fine.....two things hint he will.....recent drills are sharper......and.....he scratched out of a higher level on Saturday when the race were taken off of the turf

1  Fueled by Bourbon

 

race 6    average clarity

6  Back Beauty   what we want is her race 3 back which is much better than par for today's level of racing.....recent best of 34 bullet work put in one week ago hints we will see it....we shall see

2  Spicy Blonde   obviously a bad claim by Mike McCarthy as he drops to 10K following the 20K claim....last race wins for fun here but we are not going to see that effort......what we get is a "coin toss"......I hate these kind.....at least there are fewer of them these days with the voided claim rule

7  Sooner Time   seems to be on a rebound of sorts and my guess is she can show even more today as her connections show confidence and step her up one claiming notch.......nice reassuring 5F work since her last

5  Filly On Fire

Long-shot consideration:  4  Holidayincambodia   here is my comment for our top choice in the 4th race last Thursday who went off of 16 to 1 and would have won for fun if not for 9L of trip trouble, "good history with Ramon Guce up and that includes a decent race run at SA in January.......and Guce has won 3 of his last 5 mounts for Deleon.......last is better than appears in print.....and his race two back is much better than appears in print.......decent history at 5 1/2F.....believe this fellow is feeling good.......hoping that the step up of two levels isn't overly ambitious".......this runner seems awfully similar

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Prime Issue   what an absolutely great spot for this Miller laid up gelding as he can't be claimed for the optional 20K in this affair......works totally support the notion that it will be full throttle 1st off the bench

2  The Street Fighter   impressive MSW debut win......broke slowly and ran a little wide......won going away at the wire by 5 1/2 lengths.......improved a.m. work since.......move forward seems to be in the cards if the jock provides a better ride..... a perfect 2 for 2 lifetime seems doable if he provides one

4  Nardo   went off at 6 to 1 at GG.....that price has "gimme" written all over it.....full throttle go seems likely today

5  Old Man Lake

 

race 8    average clarity

7  Pica   nice move forward in latest 2nd out following the layoff.....her trainer is a stout 8 for his last 34 3rd out after layoffs.....add to that the fact he has been red-hot the last couple of weeks.....and.....you have a mare who very likely is up to a top effort this afternoon

8  Jeremy's Legacy   both lifetime sprint races down the SA hill fit well here.....and I like that O'Neill sees fit to put the blinkers on today as this filly seems to respond to being closer to the front runners.....and Prat sticks around

3  Poster Girl   last sure appears to be the gimme to tighten up .....come back in shorter rest.....and go go go...... and do so with a rider upgrade to Hall of Famer Gary Stevens who up for the 1st time......hmmm

1  Khaleesi

2  Leveler

 

 

 

Posted on May 11, 2017 at 9:50 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Santa Anita for Sunday 7 May 2017

My apologies for not realizing that Arcadia had that much rain in the forecast for yesterday but I do check the forecast every day and it seemed like the area would only get about 1/20th of an inch which wouldn't have changed the track any.

I was nuts about this card until the rains came. I still rate it a little above average. Finally over pneumonia (my wife too) and hope that my handicapping soon shows it. Be back with you on Thursday.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

(if the race stays on the turf)

8  Tina's Exchange   good MSW debut and an even better 2nd out 1st on the hill in the 2 April version of this race.......3 reassuring works since......jock/trainer teamed up for a win yesterday

7  Milhaud   away from the game for nearly 15 months but his MSW debut was decent and the strength of the effort is somewhat disguised......a.m. work is impressive hinting Mandella isn't wasting any time with a 5 yr old maiden

3  Dog Gone Lenny

6  General Kitten

 

race 1    average clarity

(if the race is moved to the main track)

8  Tina's Exchange   good MSW debut and an even better 2nd out 1st on the hill in the 2 April version of this race.......3 reassuring works since......jock/trainer teamed up for a win yesterday.......his pedigree to handle an off track is good

7  Milhaud  see above.....and......his pedigree seems better for the main track and if Mandella leaves him in on aff track it suggests he means business

5  Airlite

1  Bucky Goldstein

9  Combat Zone

 

race 2    average clarity

3  Irish Dame   filly has won 2 straight at SA since switching from turf routse to dirt sprints and both with today's rider Pratt aboard.....one level drop in claiming doesn't bother me much as there are limited spots that 3-year-old claimer can run and the races don't fill easily as witnessed by this 5 horse race

4  Happy Issue   consistent sort on the AW at GG has improved in her last two races especiallly the race 2 back run in 1:10:2.....don't see anyone else in this field capable of that unless they reallt took to the AW.....so......it comes down to how well this girl will handle conventional dirt.....pedigree for it seems fine

1  She'sluckythatway

 

race 3    average clarity

5  My Uncle   even for Puype who has been in drop to win mode for quite some time this is a suspicious drop..... but .......he does draw Bejarano who got the most out of this four year old two races back on a sloppy track at SA

4  Gonzo    had this youngster on top until the rains came as his last is very strong (and disguised by running 3,4 wide on a rail bias day) but his only bad race in his last 4 was on a sloppy track at SA....deserves another chance?.....how off is it?

1  Hoppity

 

race 4    average clarity

5  Runnin for Tuition   bet hard especially for a small potatoes barn and only ran OK.....but.......his a.m. work since hints he benefitted from the race and more can be expected today....if of course he handles an off track

3  Califonia Breeze    Talamo is starting to get a good portion of the D'A's live runners and might have one here as this 1st timer has a good-looking work regiment with hints of speed.....and this is only a 5 1/2F affair

8  True Testament

6  Intoitagain

2  Long-shot consideration:   Kitty Union  lone race run back in August isn't much but she went off at 37 to 1 and with a very "raw" buy boy up......Solis remains up and these days he is doing fine and he showed that he isn't intimidated by an off track winning two yesterday at odds of 9 to 1 & 45 to 1........and most importantly the works are very strong for this Mandella 2nd time starter

 

race 5    average clarity

6  Vale Dori   basically has earned as much $$$ as the rest of the field combined.......and off track you say? 2 for 2 and both were at SA......shooting for her 5th in a row

3  Bellamentary   this filly runs exceptionally well fresh and has put in some sizzling works for D'Amato.....lone race run on an off track is better than appears.....only 10L at the finish versus the mighty Songbird....and she ran inside on a track by the 7th race was quite biased to the outside

1  Skye Diamonds

4  Faithfully

 

race 6    above average clarity

(if the race stays on the turf)

7  Pellucid   GB invader had a very tough trip in her 1st race in the good old U S of A in the April 2nd version of this race......broke 3 slow - rank 2 - rushed some - block 2 in stretch.........not too shabby to only lose by 3........dynamite works since......switch in jocks......seems like a ton if she gets things right today

9  Sheza Chattykat   very strong MSW win earning an adjusted for trouble Santucci fig that is about 3L better than par for today's level......rather shocked that Baltas is giving the grass a try at this time.....so so pedigree for it.......but Richard is solid 1st time grass......so that's good enough for little old me

4  Dreamy Gal

1  Saburai

6  Mistressofthenight

 

race 6    average clarity

(if the race is moved to the main track)

9  Sheza Chattykat   very strong MSW win earning an adjusted for trouble Santucci fig that is about 3L better than par for today's level......rather shocked that Baltas is giving the grass a try at this time.....so so pedigree for it.......but Richard is solid 1st time grass......so that's good enough for little old me

6  Mistressofthenight   last race fits but her race 3 back is even better which was like this race as it was moved to the main track from the turf......the track was rated good which I agree with........very sharp recent works

5  Life's Blessings

7  Pellucid

8  Grand Prix

3  Chalon

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Edwards Going Left   very hot on the board in last considering how dismal her debut was.......nice job of training by Sadler as this colt set a nasty pace and still would have won if not for checking in the stretch.....he did get placed 1st for interference......works since hint Sadler made a heck of a claim......breeding for an off track seems fine

6  My Man Chuckles   on the right end of the learning curve......race might set for his late running style as there is an abundance of speed in this affair......giving him a pass on his lone off track race as it was his debut and he might not have been fully cranked up

1  Hitters Park

5  Johann's Command

 

race 8    below average clarity

(if the race stays on the turf)

7  Septmeber Stars  solid 1st out in the USA for this GB invader who should love a grass course with some give to it.......same distance and only 2 more pounds to carry......and maybe most importantly almost everything Stevens rides for Patty Gallagher is very live

6  Laseen   six-year-old mare can run all day as she ran well in marathon races in France....this race is only 9F in distance but will play "longer" than that as the yielding grass might be 10 to 20 lengths slower than normal

4  Madame Stripes

3  Cheekaboo

2  Nine Point Nine

 

race 8    average clarity

(if the race is moved to the main track)

4  Madame Stripes   ran 2nd in a Grade 2 in Argentina in his lone lifetime race on an off track......hard not to like

1  Plastered   very solid better than par effort for today's level in his latest which was at SA........raced very wide and still won......off track is a ? mark or would have place on top

2  Nine Point Nine

3  Cheekaboo

11  Amboseli 

 

race 9    average clarity

7  Stoneys Mr Cruiser   Molly Pearson is quite dangerous with Tup invaders and especially so when Pedroza rides.....and This colt handles the off going at Tup nicely.......and the extra 1/2F for today appears to be a plus

9  Iron Rob   seems set up for the drop today off of two muscle him up grass races......yet to hit the board in 3 off track races but his last run 3 back at SA isn't bad

8  Where Y'at at Joe  

3 No Problem

4  Rangi

6  Last One Standing

 

 

 

 

Posted on May 7, 2017 at 10:03 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Santa Anita for Saturday 6 May 2017

Seems like a decent card at Santa Anita. As for Kentucky what a bummer as it looks very bad on the radar. Being at CD on Derby day with good weather repeatedly gives me goosebumps throughout the day. On a cold rainy day and with a constantly changing messed up racetrack I'd rather be at home in Chicago wagering online. 

Best of luck as always!

 

race 12   Churchill Downs - Kentucky Derby

8  Hence   runs and works well at CD.......showed he can handle an off track......very fast time somewhat verified by big gaps to 2nd and 3rd......rider upgrade......decent post.....Asmussen has yet to win a Ky Derby but a few of his runners have put in solid Ky Derby efforts

17  Irish War Cry   4 for 5 lifetime with his miss being so awful it becomes kind of easy to ignore.....especially considering he returned 5 weeks later to crush in a G2 at Aqu.......love his pedigree to get the 10 furlongs and to handle an off surface if we get one

14  Classic Empire   giant effort/win in the BCJvnl last Nov at SA.......ran number for a two-year that was off the charts and did so pressing  a strong pace......ran poorly in his next as the 1 to 1 favorite........came back to life in his next start off of 2 1/2 months rest to win the ArkDby......jostled around some in the race and I like that he had to cope with traffic and with some kick back for a good majority of the race......2 for 2 at CD.......1 for 1 on an off track......seems tough if he exited his latest in good shape

15  McCraken   3 for 3 at CD and nothing much has changed as he is training great on his return to it's surface......does have to prove himself on an off track if we get one.......jock has a shot at getting a nice mid pack position

2  Thunder Snow   not usually a big fan of overseas runners making there 1st U S of A start in the Derby......but the colt just won a G2 (UAE Derby) 16 horse field in Dubai and did so running almost as far as the distance of the Ky Derby.......and he seems to have a decent chance at handling an off track as he won on soft turf - firm turf - and is 2 for 2 on the dirt....hopefully a versatile athletic sort

5  Always Dreaming  very impressive in his G1 win at GP......but he is a bit of a goof and the rowdy environment at CD has a shot of doing him in.....but then again if he repeats his last he should be a major player in the outcome of this race

NOTE:   18  Gormly (only consider if the track is off)   if the track is off I believe he has a shot as he ran his best race in a G3 on a sy main track at SA and he showed the best speed of his career by a lot in the race.........which is another sign he appreciated an off track.

 

Santa Anita race 1    average clarity

7  Brookies Luck    work series says ready for this Bonde baby and he likely has plenty of speed with speed rider Maldonado getting the call.....and.......mom has tosses 4 winner from 4 starters 2 of which were Stakes winners and all 4 preciously won at 2

6  Moonlight Praise   Brocklebank is hot right now and awfully dangerous in these early two-year old races.......fast 4F gate work to finish his a.m. work.....decent rider/trainer combo

4  Time for Choppino      works seem good enough for Sherlock and company who is usually ready with a good portion of his stock in this early baby races.....and mom has tossed 2 winners from 2 starters both of which were able to win at two

5  Private Tucker

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Tribal Fighter   sure appreciates a race down the hill.....last might do the trick but what we are looking for are his two previous hillside efforts both sub 112 flat .....top-notch rider/trainer combo in Baltas and Nakatani

6  Blackjactcat   1 for 1 down the majestic SA hill turf course and this four-year old comes off of two straight somewhat disguised turf routes.....with the cut back in distance he should have plenty of endurance late when push comes to shove.....gets 1st time Bejarano to boot

2  Tiz a Billy   has very little to prove on the hill with 2 wins and 2 2nd's in 4 starts on it.......very smooth runner and a good portion of the riding has been with today's jock Chantal Sutherland aboard

7  Roy H

 

race 3    average clarity

6  Parched   brutal trip in his maiden debut breaking a little tardy and then running wide on a day the rail was somewhat biased.......that effort fits here at today's lower MC level if of course he gets a better trip......rider upgrade and to one in Pedroza who has had some success with Molly Pearson

1  Cupid's Beau   absolutely had a trip from you know where in his latest....if he repeats the effort this afternoon he only needs an OK trip to have a big shot at winning this.....but he might be a "claim me please" type because the drop doesn't make sense especially with a switch to a bug boy

8  Giro Candito   Mullins picks up a new horse and he appears to have a good handle on his new shooter in the mornings.......1st on the conventional dirt but he sure trains just fine on it

5  This's How We Roll

 

race 4    average clarity

7  Red Stitch   decent 2nd in the 7 April version of this race especially considering it was off of a long layoff..............two reassuring 5F works since....same or better seems likely........extra 1/16th to work with seems like a plus

6  Rally Back   rebounded some in latest.....not sure why you would put the blinkers on following a rebound in form....but......if it does indeed help get more out of this filly then she might be the one to beat

4  Ultimate Game   laid up Salder filly owns some good early speed and she is well placed to win if she returns ready to roll......do note however that her gate to wire win last August was run on a rail speed day that benefitted her

3  Who Said Lucky

 

race 5    above average clarity

4  Sircat Sally   6 for 6 for this front running Hollendorfer filly with the last three races run on the grass......and what a spot here as she sure looks like the lead is hers....and that folks if more dangerous than it usually is because she has shown that she can rate kindly

1  Spy Ring   difficult post in latest led to a bad trip 2nd in her USA debut following 5 races overseas.....works are much better since the race and we get a significant rider upgrade for the turf race as Espinoza has been struggling on it in 2017......very dangerous sort

6  Pacific Wind   needs about 3 or 4 lengths more horse with the hike from MSW win to a Grade 3........debut win was very impressive visually....should build on the effort.....not at all out of this if she does

 

race 6    below average clarity

3  Cammy's Music   morning-glory types like this gelding often need the lead to perform (usually because they hate dirt in their face) and he has a shot to get it with a sold speed work put in 4 days ago and speed jock Maldonado staying up

1  Buckner   Scott Hansen is capable of getting 1st timers ready to run and this colt is working well enough to possible be a major player in the outcome of this low-level maiden claimer

5  Tiz Indy   moved forward with the blinkers put on in his latest........fits here if he builds on the effort some........works since his last hint he might

9  Supreme Giant

Long-shot consideration:   4  Bolted Heart   decent works...... some of which are likely endurance building for this 2nd time starter who showed little in his MC debut.....mom's other two runners were both winners.......faces a bad bunch.......30 to 1 ML.....might be worth a whirl

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Red Livy   out ran her 66 to 1 odds in her maiden debut a turf sprint in Ireland......beat 15 of 20 foes and was only beaten 2 3/4 for the win.......1st out in the U S of A 9 months later at SA was in a turf route where she chased a solid pace and tired.....her works prior to her layoff race hinted she was not prepared for a route.....so......it likely was an endurance building tune-up......cut back in distance with a horse that showed speed routing is often a positive for running well on the hill.....top turf trainer in D'Amato

10  Lyrics   strong forward move in 2nd lifetime start for this Richard Mandella filly who owns adequate breeding to take to the sod.....should be a major factor in the outcome of this race if she does

3  She'sashocker   1st time blinkers and just what you want to see as improved a.m. work......ssprint-route-sprint maneuver........ seems as if she is meant today for Machowsky and company

2  Like That

 

race 8    below average clarity

11  Did Smart Cat   last is better than appears in print but maybe more importantly this filly has some nice back numbers for Chew and company and an impressive series of 6 works.....that hints she might be up to one of those "back numbers" today.......we shall see

7  Avicii   Miller is very dangerous with recent claims and especially so with horses he claims back like this filly.......six-year-old mare is quite consistent on main track surfaces (26 7 8 6) and even more so in her last 10 races with 4 wins - 5 2nd's and a 3rd......no wonder Miller wanted her back in his barn

1  Stealth Drone   seems like a good claim by Hollendorfer as this mare got her mojo job with the blinkers put on......and she sure comes thru when you place her in 6F races (8 4 2 1) ......6F today and with a jockey upgrade

12  Time for Ebby

 

race 9     below average clarity

8  Ready Aim fire......at least I hope so for this Mandella youngster who is working well for his MSW debut.....I don't have the best track record at judging Sir Richard when it come to his 1st timers but even if this fellow isn't all out in his debut he still might be able to handle this weak looking bunch

1  Borg   O'Neill 1st timer catches a good spot and is working fairly well to possible take down this field that might lack quality.......find it interesting that he uses Bejarano on a 1st timer......that doesn't occur too often so it might be significant

10  Gato Del Oro   Baltas 1st time starter might be peaking at the right time as his last two works are solid......tough post though for a 5 1/2 furlong race.....but he does show signs of early speed and with an OK speed rider up

9  Placido

 

race 10    above average clarity

3  Vending Machine   won his lone grass race and the effort was at one mile and in a 75K Stakes like today........blinkers off and 1st time racing as a gelding.....and the recent a.m. work hints the changes have improved him.......and one reliable trainer/rider combo in Miller/Arroyo

1  Ventry Bay   lifetime best for this Wesley Ward three-year old was run last year and it was the only time he shipped into S Cal with him.....that race was a one mile grass race at SA with an out-of-town rider......exactly the same scenario today........hmmmmm

4  Bird is the Word   colt seems to find trouble quite often (one way or another) but he appears the best off pace runners in the field and gets 1st time Bejarano......dangerous for sure

5  Fashion Business

 

race 11    average clarity

4  Always Never   drop down from the Puype barn and with solid preparatory drills.....that has been a winning formula for the last 6 months for the trainer......should be the controlling speed from the get go

10  Strong Values   gelding was able to win 1st out following one long hiatus from racing......if he exited the race in good shape I like his chances as another 1/2 furlong for him to work with should be to his benefit

9  This Time I Win   six year old returns to racing today off of a 2 year and a one week layoff.......works are decent......and he did run fairly well in his debut......and he drops.....might be live as the last two times Ellis used bug boy Solis they won a race and hit the board in another

3  Dr. Crabby

1  Where's Bubba

7  True Ranger

 

Posted on May 6, 2017 at 7:01 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections