Del Mar for Sunday 10 November 2019

 

Be back with you on Thursday for four straight days of racing at Del Mar. An early shout out to all my fellow veterans: Happy Veterans Day! Enjoy your special day.

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1   average clarity

5  Octopus   solid numbers in his 1st two lifetime races which were sprints.......up the track in his 3rd start which was a route........much better pedigree for a sprint than a route.......sprint today and drops precipitously

3  Overkoter   nice improvement in his 2nd lifetime start........no action on the board whatsoever in his 3rd start hinting it was a dirty him up race to get away with today's drop into low level MC........trainer Treece won with his only start at the meeting yesterday as our top choice

7  Nonno's Polaris   only one in this field of seven that has shown he can preform well from off of the pace......broke a little slow in his MC debut so blinkers on today seems like a smart move to get him out of the gate better.......hard not to like

6  Mahi Mahi

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Big Base   very strong a.m. work for the given level racing and drops two claiming levels........like the cut back from one mile to 6 1/2F..........Jerry Hollendorfer means business with this four year old filly

2  Empress of Lov   filly is on quite a roll seeking her 4th straight win today......she might own the best early speed in the race but she is just fine racing without the lead.......that gives the very successful bug boy Velez options

3  Princess Dorian  claimed for $20K and dropped to $10K for her 1st start for trainer Andrew Lerner.......won the race earning a solid number for today's $8K ...........trainer is an eye popping 7 for his last 13 with claiming repeaters

5  Erebuni

8  Bragging Rights

 

race 3    average clarity

3  Ghost Street   solid improvement with the addition of the blinkers in his last running better than par for the MSW level......that and one of Gallagher's better trainer starts is 2nd following a layoff which is the case here......hard not to like

2  Cardiff Cay   brutal trip in his MSW debut (on the grass at one mile) at the tough meeting at Sar.........so so effort at 10F in his 2nd start..........works in N.Y. prior to shipping hints he is doing very well.......good post and rider and a fairly soft group of locals

6  Farquhar   weight off today with the bug boy up for the 3rd straight race should help him get the 9F of sod.......but........this colt sure needs to learn to pass the last horse in the stretch........might be a classic hanger

5  Muskoka

 

race 4    average clarity

5  Lord Adare   somewhat of a suspicious significant drop from MSW racing to the bottom MC20K level.......but he was a vet scratch on 26 October so he will be scrutinized greatly and if allowed to run would likely be sound enough to handle much weaker than he has been facing

7  Red Valor   gelding appears to need contact on the front end of things or cashes it in badly......rate it about 60/40 that he can get it.......that and if he can rebound to his race 2 back which was at Del Mar he is rated to low

4  Mike Operator   4 of his 5 races since the blinkers were put on fit fine here......and his latest which was at one mile at SA is disguised in it's strength where he dueled in fractions that were very fast for how dull/slow the track was on 26 October

8  Mighty Elijah

9  Acclamation King

 

race 5    average clarity

7  Miss Hot Legs   three year old filly fires par or better almost every race for the nw alw level......that and the cut back of 1/2 furlong should be a plus.......as is her ability to race well on or off of the pace

5  Red Livy    great training job to get things turned around for this five year old mare going for her 4th straight win all at 5F on the sod.......best early gas in the field......good turf rider up.....hard not to like

1  Swirling   best of the off pace runners.....just claimed by a small potatoes trainer but he got his new shooter to work a fast 3F gate work at LA just 5 days ago

4  Anonymously

 

race 6    average clarity

8  Satanta   lifetime best and a big effort was his MSW debut which was at Del Mar........maybe back a little too quick for his 2nd start as he regressed........horrid trip in 3rd lifetime start.......back to Dmr for his 4th start and with Van Dyke staying put hinting this fellow might be up to his debut or better

2  I Belong to Becky   blinkers back on and turf to dirt today........both appear to be two good moves.........2nd out after the Miller claim is often a dangerous proposition for the opposition

4  Tiger Strike   three year old has done little wrong in two lifetime dirt races......that and today's cut back in distance appears to be a plus......1st on the Dmr main track is a small ? mark

6  Claim of Passion

 

race 7    average clarity

3   Murad Khan   seems like a good spot for this 1st out after the Sadler claim runner as he likely can sit behind a suspect leader in 7 horse.........six year old runs well off of ample time between starts and gets it today

4  Wound Tight  rated too low if he repeats his last but he might not as his a.m. preparation prior to his latest was quite a bit better than it is for today's racing endeavor.......like our top choice he should sit in a decent stalk position

1  Musawaat   sprint-sprint-route scenario and an upgrade in turf jocks this afternoon........that and his turf sprint 2 races is better than par when you adjust his trip........not out of the win picture by any means

6  Stop the Violence

 

race 8    average clarity

3  Roadrunner's Honor   nice MSW debut and might make it 2 for 2 as this filly is the only horse in the field who has shown she can win (on conventional dirt) from off of the pace.......there is "lone speed" and there is less written about "lone closer"

4  Leucothea   loose on the lead in two lifetime races and won the two races by a combined 22 lengths........appears to have the best early speed but not by that much which if she doesn't clear it might hurt her badly as it has in the past

5  Orquidias   on the improve with each and every race and gets to run turf to dirt today........plenty of upside potential today

 

race 9    below average clarity

8  Frasard   trainer Powell is solid with new acquisitions to his barn and with shippers to the USA.......colt has 3 decent lifetime grass races and in his last two endeavors he ran 2nd to next out winners and with massive gaps to 3rd place

3  Goalie   solid MSW turf sprint debut which is somewhat disguised in it's strength......should appreciate a turf route with his family background.......good post.......good turf rider.......very good turf trainer in the D'A

11  Royal Act   expensive MSW 1st time starter owns a pedigree that should like a route and the turf.........last three preparatory works hint today's introduction into the racing world is not a tune-up......tough post or would have selected higher

7  Don V.

2  Much More Halo

 

 

Posted on November 10, 2019 at 9:27 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Del Mar for Saturday 9 November 2019

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

3  Potantico   lifetime best was run in his lone race at Del Mar and the strength of the effort is disguised by pressing a nasty set of fractions for the day........after the 34 to 1 win awakening he trained rather dull........but.......since his poor performance at SA he has been training very impressively........rather sure he is ready for a big effort if he can avoid a suicidal speed duel with our 4th selection who can really fly

6  Hardboot   only dirt race wasn't all that bad and his pedigree seems somewhat better for the dirt than the turf........he comes from far back and has a shot of being the "last one standing" in a field that might go a little too fast early

5  Mongolian Hero   vast improvement in his race two back which was at today's dirt distance and at Lrc.......turf to dirt today and with a nice 2/44 5F work put in 5 days ago........seems to have some potential for his lifetime best this afternoon........should a big price

7  Via Egnatia

 

race 2    average clarity

2  So Much Happy   best turf numbers and also appears to be the controlling speed in the race......good post and a decent gate horse......hard not to like three year old filly from the George Papaprodromou barn

1  Visual Magic   sprint-sprint-route scenario for this filly who moved forward in her last her 2nd lifetime start.......the effort is disguised by racing wide on a good rail day and pressing a quick 1/4.......stride (way of going) on the turf looked fine in her 1st start which was a 5F turf sprint

6  Vegas Palm   low percentage trainer the last few years but not off of layoffs of more than 3 months.......that and the fact Mike Smith sees fit to ride hints this grass filly is ready to roll just as she was in her MSW debut where she almost upset the apple-cart at 30 to 1 running 2nd beaten by a diminishing 1/2 length

7  Gold Arrow

 

race 3    average clarity

6  Twirling Tiger   seems like a good claim back by Charles Treece as his returnee likes the Dmr dirt and appears relatively sharp.......race 2 back which was a win at Del Mar and an effort that fits solidly here was run off of 25 days rest.....racing off of 27 days rest today and with a nice 46:3 bullet work put in since his 12 Oct race.....plenty to like

2  Papa Turf   poor record on the Del Mar dirt but this eight year old gelding's last is hard to ignore as it was the best run he has produced in many a year......Mullins claimed 3 races back and might have the trump card for this elder statesman......if so he might get his 1st win of his career at Del Mar

3  Fast Cotton   only mount of the day for the red hot to finish the SA meeting Agapito Delgadillo.......in all likelihood the front end either goes to him or our 2nd selection........like his chances if the veteran rider can avoid a speed duel one way or another

4  Mo Dinero

 

race 4    average clarity

1  Savvy Gal   jock upgrade today to Bejarano.......Baltas hasn't been using Rafael like he used to but over the last two months his horses have been quite "live" when he does......as in 2 wins and 6 others on the board with 9 starters......two year old filly has done little wrong in two lifetime starts and won his MSW on the Del Mar turf and at today's one mile distance

8  Seahawk Lisa   1st on the sod but owns a good pedigree for it........filly showed she can handle two turns with a nice graduating win on it at today's one mile distance......very stout work regiment put into this two year old by Hollendorfer who is back with the closing of SA where he is ruled off

7  Powerfulattraction   not much cooking in her 3rd lifetime start but her MSW debut was a winning one and then she ran 2nd in a Grade 2.........mom has tossed three turf winners.......new sire is off to a good start as far as producing turf runners is concerned

6  Guitty

3  Convoluted

 

race 5    above average clarity

6  Authentic   Baffert MSW 1st time starter sure is training like he is a very nice two year old colt and he acts as if he has plenty of early speed......and only 5 1/2 furlongs to negotiate........that and Van Dyke has done a nice job riding the Hall of Fame trainer's two year old runners

4  Jeffnjohn'sthundr   off slow and then showed plenty of life from there in his MSW debut........two reassuring drills since......plenty of upside especially if he breaks cleanly this afternoon

5  Absolute Unit  believe this Eurton 1st time starter is well-meant in his MSW debut as 3 of his last 4 preparatory drills were out of the gate.........that and mom has been rather prolific tossing 5 winners from 6 starters and 2 of which were Stakes winners

7  Moon Mischief

 

race 6    below average clarity

5  I Give Up   tepid top choice appears to have been given a sprint turf tune-up to get a taste of the game and muscle up some all to be ready for today's two turn route race.......and her pedigree to appreciate a turf route is better than a turf sprint.......that and her trainer Hector Palma is much more dangerous with 2nd time starters than he is with debut runners......should be a price

1  Awesome Ella   with a good trip rather than the bad trip that she had in her debut she could have won her MSW debut which was at SA on 6 October at 5 furlongs on the grass........broke about 2 slow and then went 4/5 wide......not too shabby to only get beat by 3 1/4 at the wire......tough call as far as her pedigree to handle a route is concerned.....but he she does she will be a major factor in the outcome of this MSW one mile grass race

2  Overjoyed   turf MSW debut 2 races back was decent and at today's 8F distance on the grass........funky looking ride by Mike Smith (or just hated the dirt) in this girl's last race which was on the dirt and where she went off as the favorite.......he stays aboard for a 3rd straight time enforcing the idea you can toss out this one's last.......hmmmm

7  Lace

3  Beautiful Thunder

 

race 7    below average clarity

2  Principe Carlo   SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE   like the step up in claiming with suggests his good health might be rebounding (voided claim 2 back on Aug 9)........most of this youngster's lifetime dirt sprints fit solidly here......and.......he seems at his most dangerous racing on the Del Mar dirt

4  Platinum Nights   (3 1 2 0) when Mike Smith rides.......(7 0 0 1) when other jocks have gotten the call.......and in general when Smith rides for Peter Eurton it is one dangerous proposition for the opposition

3  Union Ride   nice dirt record overall for this Palma three year old gelding (6 3 1 0).........lifetime best was his lone racing endeavor to date at Del Mar and the strength of the effort is somewhat hidden........continues to train like a happy healthy individual

5  Seven Scents

 

race 8    below average clarity

3  Ocean Fury   colt is seemingly in an every/other mode and today he is on the desired end of the pendulum......back in 7 days rest is alarming but O'Neill is as good as anyone getting a given runner to do well off of "micro" rest.....last two wins for this youngster have been at today's one mile turf distance

6  Carnivorous  SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE   might be a nice (expensive) claim by Knapp of a consistent grass runner who won his last two starts at Del Mar on the grass making him (3 2 01) overall on the Dmr turf.........seems to respond sitting mid pack and he should be able to get that position here

5  Bob and Jackie   colt has done little wrong in 3 lifetime starts (3 2 1 0) all of which were on the sod......just like his MSW debut Baltas appears to have him ready "fresh" once again.......not my favorite grass rider up but he has done a nice job riding this colt

 

race 9    average clarity

3  Defense Wins   somewhat suspicious that this colt is in a maiden claiming race even one that is for MC100K.....but if his good health has remained intact he should be tough from start to finish........and with the enhanced scrutiny of the horse colony by the vets there is less chance that this O'Neill two year old is hurting

5  Uncaptured Hero   MSW debut at Lrc is much better than it appears in print as this colt set a nasty pace and did so on a suspect inside and was also in tight some........did well to only fade to a 6 beaten length 4th........rider might be able to get loose........thus.......dangerous

6  Mr. Nasty   copious drills for this Baltas 1st time starter including some of merit.......only cost $60K at sale so why not start a decent working 1ster for the 100K maiden claiming price........might be a good opportunity for Valdivia to show he's ready to break back into the S Cal jockey colony

8  Stone Secret

2  Enemy Runner

Posted on November 9, 2019 at 8:32 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Del Mar for Friday 8 November 2019

Opening day Del Mar. Life is good!

A special welcome to those of you that only play Del Mar and maybe a few other special days at the other tracks. Great to have you back!!

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

4  Debt Monger   Bill Spawr sends out very few MSW 1st time starters but when he does they are very often quite "live and ready".......numerous weekly works dating back to at least mid August supports the notion this colt is also ready at 1st asking

5  I Will Not   sprint-route-sprint......turf to dirt.........1st time blinkers........tough trio coming off of a fantastic SA Fall meeting of O'Neill/Gutierrez/Reddam.........a superfecta of reasons to consider this two year old colt

1  Summer Fire   races two and three back fit decently here and today the colt gets Prat on her back for the 1st time........tossed a clunker in his latest but the fact Prat landed here hints a rebound might be in the cards

 

race 2    average clarity

3  Wildman Jack   all three of this gelding's lifetime races fit solidly here and they all were turf sprints like today.......trainer & rider (O'Neill/Bejarano) have been deadly as a team as in 9 for their last 21 as a combo over their last 2 months.......three old ran a sizzling 55:2 in August in his debut......that time is outstanding for today's level

1  Big Runner   impressive MSW debut and like our top choice his time of 102:1 is awfully stout and supported by a 4 length gap to 2nd.......in that race he also started from the one post and broke about 2 lengths slow.......best not do that today vs tougher

6  Restless Rambler   gelding has one way to go and that is all out from the opening bell.........trainer and the rider are both extremely dangerous with turf speed-balls.......but at what price today as the race is loaded with early speed

5  Truck Salesman

 

race 3    average clarity

6  Fire When Ready   2 for 3 at today's one mile distance and one of the wins was at Del Mar.......2 for 2 with Bejarano in the saddle......last win was three back in a claiming race (only race up for a tag) and it came following two straight weak efforts.......same scenario today........hmmmm

8  Impression   earned a somewhat disguised par like number for today's lower level and he sure appears to be a better dirt horse than a turf horse......and he surely has the right to move forward 2nd out after an eight month hiatus from the game

1  Dawood   might be a good claim by Metz of a four year old who sure has found his nicth in dirt route racing and is steadily getting better........latest is better than it appears in print...........gelding might be able to keep his positive trend moving forward

7  Roaring Rule

3  Wilshire Dude

 

race 4    average clarity

6  It's a Riddle   very dull MSW race in her 2nd lifetime start which likely came from this two year old filly dueling in a very fast quarter mile........MC debut was vastly better.......needs a rebound to that effort and if she is up to it she faces a soft looking bunch

5  Golden Chrome   double barrel action for O'Neill as he also conditions our 3rd selection.......this filly flashed a solid quarter in a 5F MSW turf sprint 3 weeks ago getting caught wide on the turn and predictably cashed it in.........might have always been pointed for today.......we shall see about 2 pm pacific time is that is the case

4  Ladies Luv Munny   1st time starter has a decent fairly new inexpensive (so far) sire and decent drills considering the given level of racing......just bought in June for $28K so why not race for MC32K.......that and this is one weak looking group of MC 32K runners.......thus a good spot for a 1ster for O'Neill and company

2  Golden Missile

3  Happy Trails

 

race 5    average clarity

1  Hootie   two of this gelding's last three races are very strong adjusted Santucci figs (for pace/position/trouble)......hopefully his latest which was 4 weeks ago isn't too strong and causes him to regress some.......because........he should sit up close and save ground in a race that seems to set up for those that do

8  Volubile   just claimed by Hess off of a lifetime best for this three year old gelding........and Hess changes riders from one who struggles to one that does not especially on the sod in Flavien Prat

2  Storm the Bastille   only lifetime race getting to compete off of short rest (21 days) was a win......looking for his 2nd lifetime win off of short rest today this time around off of 26 days rest

5  Tartini

9  Blame It On Kitty

 

race 6    average clarity

2  Remember to Smile   not much cooking in her 1st two lifetime starts then in her 3rd which was her 1st on the sod she improved some......and her two works since the 13 October race hint the grass muscled her up and she is likely sitting on her best to date.....that and it appears to be a good spot for someone like herself who has some early speed

1  Adorably Sweet   pounded at the windows to favorite in a 9 horse field MSW debut but got hurt during the running of the race......off since the 2 December race and she is training as if she will bet bet again.....and the fact that Prat and his agent see fit to ride an individual who was vanned off in her debut supports the idea she is ready and has some ability

6  Twirling Diamond   one of Dallas Keen's better maneuvers in the sprint-route-sprint scenario and that is the case here with his three year old filly.......last race was on the grass at a route and like our top selection her works hint it muscled her up......and being a route it likely has improved her endurance which she needs more of

4  Too Hot for Curlin

5  Into Rissa

 

race 7    average clarity

1  La Sardane   only win in the U S of A for this Drysdale five year old mare came the lone time she got to race 2nd out after a long layoff off of relatively short rest........same scenario today.........very impressive hopefully telltale 5F bullet work just put in on the SA tr.t just 4 days ago.......very sharp when it counts the most as in right before her race

3  Poster Girl   might be an excellent claim by Bill Spawr and company of a mare who is arguably at her best racing level of her career........trainer has won 3 of his last 6 in non-Graded Stakes races like this one......mare should sit pretty 2nd, 3rd or 4th down the backstretch with a weak front runner to catch........dangerous sort

7  Super Patriot   nicely improved since Richard Baltas snatched up this filly by way of the claiming box 4 races back.......latest two races definitely fit at today's level provided she works out a decent trip.........as usually she should be motoring late

2  Storming Lady

9  Excellent Sunset

 

race 8    average clarity

5  Road Test   trainer Trela is an amazing 7 for her last 14 1st following a claim which is the case today........five year old mare has been in the exacta at today's distance 12 of 17.........jock smartly rides thru the claim and he is (6 1 4 0) on this mare........tough stats to ignore despite the move up in class today especially considering almost the whole field is "moving up"

3  Tiz Toffee   might be up for a move forward as she just worked a best of 38 5F drill at GG one week ago..........mostly "a need the lead type" but she owns plenty of early speed to get the front end.......last win was the last time today's rider Delgadillo had the mount

7  Whoa Nessie   only lifetime race at Del Mar on the main track was his best to date and at today's 8F distance.........he won the race turf to dirt and that is today's scenario........the 11 length win came despite racing a touch wide and doing it pressing a par like set of fractions for the day

1  Bunny Yogart

9  Meso

 

 

 

 

Posted on November 7, 2019 at 4:22 pm by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Breeders Cup at Santa Anita for Saturday 2 November 2019

Breeders Cup Day Two

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

2  Don't Sell   broke about 1 1/2 lengths slow and then rushed up to duel (not smart) which likely cost this filly a win.......filly is (5 4 1 0) competing at 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs and four of the races were on the turf.......solid 4F work since her last race which was 3 weeks ago........Mario Gutierrez will be out to make amends

9  Escapade  talk about another reliable sprinter (7 4 2 1).......and 6 of the races were on the sod......that and this four year old filly is capable of running well on or off of the pace.......would have been top selection if she had drawn a better post

8  Girls Know Best   Eddie Kenneally five year old appears to be the speed of the speed so the outside post doesn't concern me too much......Jose Ortiz is up and when Kenneally legs up the stout grass jock his runners are usually very "live"

4  Just Grazed Me 

7  Gypsy Blue

 

race 2    average clarity

3  Roadster   Baffert three year old colt is (3 2 1 0) at SA including a win in the SA Derby.......he also is 2 for 2 racing fresh and he is 4 1/2 months "fresh" today........blinkers on today and just what you what to see as in a powerful work tab......that and Baffert is 11 for his last 30 "1st time blinkers"

4  Flagstaff   not too shabby of a 3rd place finish racing 2 1/2L behind two monsters in Omaha Beach & Shancelot........good history sprinting off of 4 or 5 weeks.........28 days since his solid Grade 1 sprint.......V Espinoza knows this Sadler five year old quite well as this is his 5th straight mount on him

5  Comical Ghost   2 for 2 lifetime and in his 2nd lifetime endeavor he had to overcome a bad trip......he was caught dueling 3 wide in a decent pace and still was able to come home a winner.........gets to race off of relatively short rest today for the 1st time so he has the potential of moving forward which he likely needs to do versus our top two picks in order to beat them

 

race 3    below average clarity

8  Neptune's Storm  three year old gelding is making a living of off stalking the lead and it appears he has a decent chance of getting that position today......that and this youngster sure has been consistently firing competitive races since Baltas took over the training duties 5 races back.......as in 3 wins - a 2nd - and a 3rd.........and the three year old is 4 for 6 at SA

6  Jais's Solitude   vastly improved since the blinkers were added 5 races back......and after getting disqualified out of the money in his latest the connections are not messing around and make a significant rider upgrade especially so for the turf......that and the three year old has sure shown numerous times that he can ship and run well.....should be a big price

1  Originaire   blinkers off really woke-up this Mullins runner who now likes to race from far back and take his chances flying late.......that and he appears to love the firm turf that SA has to offer........Mike Smith knows him well as this is the 4th straight mount on the three year old colt

3  Nodle

4  Temple

5  Succeedandsurpass

 

race 4    BC Filly & Mare Sprint

1  Covfefe  in 7 lifetime sprints the only two loses came when this filly got bumped at the start.........2 for 2 from the one post is reassuring.......three year old filly owns two incredibly fast final times of 107:3 at Pim and 1:20:2 for 7F at CD.......they were run off 6 1/2 & 8 1/2 weeks rest.......6 weeks rest for today

5  Lady Ninja   Baltas filly likes a deep SA and that is what the main track has been.......plenty of speed signed up in this Grade 1 should aid/flatter her mid pack style.......filly has yet to race at 7F but when examining her finishes in 6 1/2 furlong sprints one would surmise it should be a plus

4  Come Dancing   what a year for this mare (5 4 1 0) and $800K earned.......likely to get a nice stalking trip with some pace to run at.......awfully dangerous 3rd selection

7  Selcourt

6  Bellafina

 

race 5    BC Turf Sprint

4  Shekky Shebaz   not that much speed signed-up for an abbreviated turf sprint and this four year old gelding has some.......that and he is vastly improved since Jason Servis took over the training responsibilities two races back.......those races were at 5 1/2F & 6F respectively........and when looking at his running lines it appears that 5F will even be a better fit......fabulous rider/trainer combo at the helm.........37% win & 84% win with there last 19 as a team

1  Totally Boss   very formidable on firm turf as in 3 wins and a "nose" 2nd in 4 starts.....should sit mid pack as he normally does and if Jose Ortiz can find a lane he should be flying late

2  Pure Sensation   unless the 13 AE draws into the field he seemingly has only one challenger who has his level of early speed in our top selection.......inside speed has dominated the abbreviated turf sprints at the SA Fall meeting.........and boy does it appear that Paco Lopez gets the most out of this Christophe Clement runner

7  Leinster

10  Eddie Haskel

 

race 6    BC Dirt Mile

5  Omaha Beach   in classic Richard Mandella style this colt is on the improve with each and every race (well almost every race)........he won the Ark Derby sprint to route.......same scenario for today' big race.......continues to train like a happy healthy individual........look for money Mike Smith to get his biggest challenge from ironically Mr. Money

4  Mr. Money   smooth running colt has earned over a million dollars in 2019........he a nice stalking style which might put him the drivers seat here if the 5 and the the 7 press each other too hard early........jock owns all 5 lifetime wins for this three year old colt

2  Improbable   very bad gate horse far too often........ but...... when he behaves he can runs with anyone........and.......he is very capable on or off of the pace

9  Diamond Oops

3  Spun to Run

 

race 7    BC Filly & Mare Turf

7  Vasilika   five year old is the epitome of "horses for courses" with 11 wins and a 2nd with 12 starts on the SA turf course.......and Pratt knows this gal inside and out as her regular rider........also she won her only turf race at today's 10F distance and the race was a Grade 1 at SA......local horse might get ignored at the windows

2  Sistercharlie   hard to put this fabulous mare as our 2nd selection especially considering that Chad Brown is the USA's top turf trainer........but she is (6 3 2 0) at the distance and (8 7 1 0) at other distances.......that and so many of her wins have been by head-bobs

1  Iridessa   strong 10 furlong Grade 1 turf win in June in Ireland racing off of a one mile grass race (prep?)........rather impressive that a 3 year old filly beat older by 2+ lengths in June racing as far as 10F........ships in from GB off a 3rd place one mile grass race (prep?)........very good history for this three year old filly when today's jock Wayne Lordan rides

8  Castle Lady

5  Mirth

 

race 8    BC Sprint

9  Imperial Hint   SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE  comes in off of two straight Grade 1 wins both of which were run in eye popping times of 107:4 & 108:1......and his latest drill was 46 flat put in at Mth........and it was labeled a "breeze"........yikes........he can stalk when the 4 & the 6 appear as if they can't or at least something to prove when it comes to stalking.........J Castellano is highly likely to take back........like his chances if he does

6  Shancealot   monumental rider upgrade especially for a speed horse.......rather sure the lead will go to this Jorge Navarro colt who set a ridiculously fast 1/2 (considering how deep the track is) at SA in Grade 1 which was also at six panels........very dangerous with one of the most dangerous speed riders in the U S of A aboard for the 1st time

1  Catalina Cruiser   3 for 3 when breaking from the 1 post.......2 for 2 at today's 7F distance........2 for 2 at SA......capable of winning on or off of the lead.........a superfecta of reasons to consider this five year old who is 7 of 8 lifetime

3  Firenze Fire

4  Mitole

 

race 9    BC Mile Turf

6  Got Stormy   four year old filly from the Casse barn is seemingly the sharpest of her career and her preparatory works leading up to today's race supports the notion..........that and she sure loves very firm turf which of course SA has to offer.......race lacks speed and she has some......believe she will save ground on the 1st turn sitting about 3rd or 4th down the back-stretch

9  Circus Maximus   three year old colt is by far at his best racing at today's one mile turf distance where he owns two Grade 1 wins and also a Grade 1 2nd across the pond...........that and the Euro owns some early speed in a race that lacks it.......and it is good to see Ryan Moore up as he was aboard for those impressive Grade 1 performances

10  Without Parole   very dangerous price shot is training for Chad Brown as if his poor form is over and he is back where was at the start of his career where he wheeled off four straight wins including a Grade 1.......and he has some speed in a race that lacks it so maybe he won't get caught too wide on the 1st turn with his 10 post start

8  El Tormenta

11  Uni

3  Space Traveller

 

race 10    BC Distaff

4  Midnight Bisou   undefeated in 2019 with 7 wins and even though she has not been at SA in awhile she is (4 3 1 0) at The Great Race Place..........Mike Smith has 6 of the 7 2019 wins.........trainer Steve Asumussen is very reliable with his top runners

2  Ollie's Candy   ignore the race that this filly ran in her latest as most of her big efforts come off of 4 or 5 weeks rest which is the case today.....she owns 3 wins and 3 2nds when competing off of that time interval........last two preparatory works are very stout......rather sure this Salder filly is ready for her very best today........Rosario and his agent likely think so as well

1  Paradise Woods   (12 5 3 2) at SA on the main track and (5 0 0 1) everywhere else.......and she especially likes SA when the track is deeper/slower as witnessed by her 10L win at today's 9F last April......that and she has 2 lifetime numbers (and at SA) that our top choice would have a difficult time with if she was able to run one of them this afternoon

5  Dunbar Road

6  Wow Cat

 

race 11    BC Turf

10  Old Persian  Charles Appleby is a very capable trainer who has won a couple of BC turf races and his runners in general are usually very live.......this colt's thing is marathons and he sure responded to 1st time Lasix with a big Grade 1 win at Woodbine where he not only ran a solid fig but also looked great visually doing it

11  Arklow   appreciates very firm turf and he has been very stout when competing off of 4 or 5 weeks between races.........4 weeks exactly since his impressive Grade 1 win at Belmont where he beat quite a few of the runners signed up in this prestigious race

9  Bricks and Mortar   a perfect 8 for 8 in 2018/19 for Chad Brown and company.........not easy to place such a superstar as low as our 3rd choice but he is facing some of the top marathon horses in the world and this is his 1st to date racing past 10F.....but then again if Chad Brown thinks he will handle the distance you surely need to respect his astute opinion

5  Anthony Van Dyck

2  Acclimate

 

race 12    BC Classic

10  Vino Rosso   Todd Pletcher's four year old colt's only race at SA might be his lifetime best and it was at 10 furlongs like today..........in that 27 May Grade 1 he pressed a nasty set of fractions especially for a fairly deep track and was able to stick around in the stretch to draw off a little late to win

4  War of Will   blinkers go on today and his recent works hint the equipment change has woken him up some assuming that he worked with them on.........rail has been good at SA and this colt can run inside.......like his Preakness win I hope Gaffalione once again lays off pace 3 or 4 lengths and sticks to it like glue.....shot for a big upset here

6  Elate  must be doing awfully well to finish her career here before she heads to the farm to breed.........that and she is a perfect 3 for 3 at 10 furlongs.......as usual she likely will sit mid pack and come charging home

5  Yoshida

8  McKinzie

9  Mongolian Groom

Posted on November 2, 2019 at 6:05 am by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections

Breeders Cup at Santa Anita for Friday 1 November 2019

Breeders Cup Day 1

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    above average clarity

5  Campaign   very strong races/figs in his three 12 furlong races on the dirt......and his pedigree suggests (as does his running lines) that he is just getting started at 12F and that 14F is made to order........good rider/trainer combo in Sadler and Rosario

1  Itsinthepost   only lifetime dirt race was a 2nd place finish behind our top pick by 1 1/4 at the wire.......he stalked in the race and maybe moved a little early.......look for Van Dyke to sit back off of things more today to have something left for the stretch

4  Zestful   from a 7L win back in Feb in a $8K claimer to a 6L win in a $100K Stakes race in mid September 9 races later........should be loose as he normally is and if allowed to slow things down to a crawl he might be tough to wheel in

 

race 2    average clarity

4  Opus Won   looking for his 12 May race run off of 5 months rest where she pressed a very hot pace and still managed to come home a winner to graduate.......so with a big work tab showing and racing off of 3 months rest today she might be up for a repeat effort......and she draws a good speed rider in Johnny V.

8  Zuzanna   there is the potential of a hot pace in this nw alw race and if that is what occurs it can play into the hands of this off pace mare from the Hess barn

1  Rayana   very solid two year old MSW debut to graduate in a race run 14 months ago and at today's one mile turf distance......not much cooking in her only race in 2019 running a so so sprint in June..........but training sharply for race number 3 and Baffert is able to get Rosario.......needs to avoid a speed duel with our top selection one way or another

9  Heathers Grey

5  Rockin Ready

 

race 3    below average clarity

4  Warren's Showtime   turf to dirt and a full furlong cut back in distance........and for a trainer in Craig Lewis who has had his fair share of bad racing luck and has still managed a 17% win percent for 2019.......Velez has been on the filly for all four of her lifetime races and for the most part handled her well

12  Smiling Shirlee   not crazy about the post but we do get one significant rider upgrade........my guess is Rosario will take back and do his best to get get this filly over to the inside and save as much ground as he can........work tab has never been better for this Bonde mare which is likely one of the reasons the connections lured Rosario to accept the mount

11  Been Studying Her   another with a difficult post but this filly has plenty of tactical speed for Mike Smith to utilize and work out a decent trip

2  Almost a Factor

5  Stradari

8  Bulletproof One

 

race 4    average clarity

7  Chipper   very impressive MSW debut running 2nd to our 2nd selection but doing so with a tough trip (broke a little slow - boxed/blocked 2 lengths and bumped in the stretch some.......solid reassuring work since....pedigree to handle the extended sprint distance of 7F is very good.....trainer is finishing up the Fall SA with a flourish

2  Cali Dude  like our top selection this gelding had a strong MSW debut in which he was able to graduate at 1st asking despite dueling in par like pace........and it is a much more difficult task to win at 6 1/2 furlongs in your debut than say 6 & 6 1/2F........not easy to separate top two

11  Square Deal   gelding on paper might look the best but in actuality his top effort in five races isn't as good (but close) as the 2 & & 7 ran in their only lifetime race........that and the post he starts from is no picnic........still a dangerous but easy to make our 3rd pick-a-rue

8  Great Ulysses

4  Dapper

 

race 5    BC Juvenile Turf Sprint 

9  Four Wheel Drive   absolutely two dynamite sprint turf times in both lifetime races which were validated by 3 length wins.......trainer's forte is with young turf sprinters.......I could see this colt getting caught 3 wide on the turn and still winning.......Irad Ortiz wisely sticks around

2  Band Practice   two year old filly won 3 straight turf races in a row overseas including a win vs. the boys in her latest......all three races had some big gaps to either 2nd and/or 2nd and 3rd.......that and she has a decent post and has some early gas

7  Kimari   Wesley Ward trains our top choice and also this filly who has done nothing wrong in 4 lifetime starts including overcoming a slow start and still managing to circled the field and get up to win vs. the boys

6  Alligator Alley

10  A'Ali

 

race 6    BC Juvenile Turf

4  Decorated Invader   on the improve with each and every race all of which were in turf routes.......only two year old in the race to win a Grade 1......good rider - good trainer who knows how to ship west and win - good post - 1st time on Lasix and with stout a.m. preparation showing........hard not to like that many positives

7  Andesite   Brad Cox colt won his debut like a good thing and then shipped to Saratoga for a Grade 3 where he sat too far off a no pace affair which led to him having little chance to make up ground in the stretch......then he ran 2nd by a head in a solid Belmont 1 1/16 turf race.......a.m. work since his last is improved hinting he will fire his lifetime best today......1st time Rosario

3  Peace Achieved   colt has some early turf route speed and the two runners lined up inside of him do not.....so he should be on the wood on turn one in up close position........strong best to date work on 18 Oct hints he likely is up for his best yet

2  Structor

12  Arizona

5  Vitalogy

 

race 7    BC Juvenile Fillies

6  Bast   only two year old filly two have won two Grade one races and the 2nd one was at SA where she earned a number that is par like for today's level.......and she did it running a bit wide on the day the rail was the place to hang-out......Baffert with a home court advantage with a two year old.......tough to beat that

7  Wicker Whisper   expensive Asmussen filly won both her lifetime starts by a combined 9 lengths.....her number earned in her latest a Grade 1 win at Belmont is every bit as good or better than our top choice......but it was in a one turn mile.....if she handles the two turns and the SA surface she should be equally matched our with our top selection

4  British Idiom   like our 2nd choice she is coming off of a Grade 1 route win which was at Kee and she also won both her races by wide margins in her case a combined 10 lengths.......trainer Brad Cox is awfully dangerous on the big race days and the Breeders Cup obviously is one of them........not out of the win picture by any means......pun intended

1  Donne Veloce

2  Two Sixty

 

race 8    BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

4  Abscond   tepid top pick in a race difficult to decipher won her first turf route like a good thing and it was in a Grade 1 at Woodbine.......and she owns some early speed in a race that doesn't have that much signed up......good post to utilize it and she retains outstanding grass rider Irad Ortiz.....should get a good trip and many in this large field will not

2  Croughavouke   brutal trip in latest losing about 6 lengths to trip and still closed fast to snatch 2nd.......see ya Van Dyke and hello Prat.......good post and an underrated turf conditioner in Jeff Mullins.......should go off one big price

5  Daahyeh   two year old filly trained by a young up and coming trainer out of GB has done little won in 5 lifetime grass races in GB and Ire (5 3 2 0).......four of her five races were Graded affairs.......she definitely fits well today if she handles her 1st around two turns

7  Crystalle

9  Albigna

12  Sweet Melania

 

race 9    BC Juvenile

6  Eight Rings  both lifetime wins are very solid efforts/figs that peg him as a BC caliper two year old champion but he is quirky as witnessed by his start 2 back where he ducked in sharply and dumped his rider......my guess is Velasquez/Baffert will want him on or near the lead as outside of our 2nd choice the race sure lacks speed for a two year old Grade 1 route.........seems like a ton if he behaves

1  Dennis' Moment  most promising two year old that I can ever remember Dale Romans having.......like our top selection he has shown that he more than belongs in this prestigious race and he a very deserving co favorite........work tab is brilliant

4  Storm the Court   wide trip on an inside day saw him finishing 8 lengths behind Eight Rings......he earned an adjusted for trouble Santucci fig that is 4L less than Baffert's horse.......works since the race hint he's moving forward today......connections will likely have their fingers crossed that the 1 & the 6 end up dueling on the lead

5  Scabbard

2  Wrecking Crew

 

race 10    average clarity

11  Justinian   Baffert youngster broke a little slow and still managed to cut out some solid fractions to graduate in his 2nd start and as our top pick.....if he has held his form and gets a better trip he sure deserves to be our top pick once again

2  Candy Cornall   lone race run at the somewhat specialized distance of 7F is his best effort/number of his career.......bug boy Diaz is really starting to ride well and now seems worth his 5 lbs break......trainer Shirreffs has been on fire......very dangerous contender

8  Threefiveindia   a good portion of this gelding's dirt career fits solidly at today's level of racing......and 1st out following a claim by Miller is a very dangerous thing especially when he puts this new addition up for the same tag he took him for.......hard not to respect

1  Rogallo 

4  Eagle Song

7  Secret Courier

 

 

 

Posted on October 31, 2019 at 7:25 pm by richs · Permalink · Comments Closed
In: Free Information, Selections