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Santa Anita for Sunday 14 March 2010
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Handicappers Corner
I want to discuss two topics in today's report, one of which we have received some recent emails about. (Thanks for those emails. The first is what we mean when we speak about the "clarity" of a given race. ( we have also used the word visibility) Basically using the words below average, average, and above average with "clarity" I am trying to let you know how difficult a race was for me to decipher. I'd definitely stay clear of low priced horses in races that are rated "below average clarity" and in general put less weight (wagers) on those races. Conversely, put more weight on the "above average clarity" races. And if you see that my top pick or picks are decent prices in the above average rated races those should offer good value in the long run. Those are the races I get the most excited about.
The second topic which I have discussed before is about the amount of analysis I write for each horse. Often in the past I have felt that I rushed my handicapping for the last couple of races so that I can make our time deadline. Don't think we can change the deadline because we do hear from you when we are even a few minutes late. And I need to see the previous days races to see any bias changes that may occur so usually I study in the morning starting at 5 AM Pacific time. So I've decided to study first and then start typing away so as to not jeopardize the handicapping. This will sometimes mean names and numbers only or brief comments only. Moving the clock forward last night is my excuse for today. A handicapper needs his sleep.
We hit our 4 horse box yesterday for a return of $79.00 and we are sticking to the same wager today. We have 2 different 4 horse box wagers where the morning line odds on our selections averages about 8 to 1.
6th race exacta box 1, 2, 7, 8 8th race exacta box 1, 8, 10, 11 (12 bets per race)
race 1 slightly above average clarity
1 Laser Point strong move forward on the drop in last and now smartly steps up......good shot at repeating
2 Fenice all 3 route races on the AW are solid for today's level
race 2 average clarity
2 Megastar fired a lifetime best sprinting on the AW in what looks like a powerful tuneup in hisr return to route grass racing where he ran a nice 2nd in his only turf race
5 B's Lucky Strike just like our top choice winner yesterday in the 4th race (I'mneverwrong) this fellow has been unlucky in his career running into trip trouble or paceless races on numerous occasions...can get the trip and pace today
1, 1A Milyone both 1 and 1A can run well in this spot
race 3 slightly below average clarity
1 General Dan positive rider switch and a sharp drill with the blinkers off should get the most out of this bottom level claimer today
3 Film Fortune on the improve and it's somewhat hidden....very big drills of late....and apprentice finally won a race to get the monkey of his back.... and Van Berg will win at least one last race before his time on this planet is up...unless it's up sooner than I think
4 Cadeaux Du Monde big pace and final time improvement in last...needs to avoid a speed duel
race 4 slightly below average clarity
8 Royal F J here's another one of those multiple bad trip or poor pace scenario types that gets Bejarano in the saddle to get the job done
4 Hockley
9 Seize Power
1 One French Kiss
race 5 slightly above average clarity
6 Fleet Royal barn is quietly having a nice meet and this filly is on the improve......love the bullet drill last week as well...think that lifetime best is in order for today
4 Brookie Girl
3 Past Curfew
race 6 average clarity
1 El Nadia very impressive 1st run in the good old U S of A and now we switch from a very low win percentage barn to a high one...two solid 4F drills...should fire big again
7 Madel
8 Warren's Appeal
2 Living Our Dream
race 7 average clarity
4 Saarface long hiatus from the races but this colt drops out of MSW and gets Gomez up and most importantly catches what appears to be a weak bunch
2 Bettingonthefly
1 Chimu
5 Warren's Concept
race 8 slightly above average clarity
1 Manhattan Beach fired a most impressive off pace effort into slow fractions in a 5F grass race at Dmr.....then won 6 months later on the AW and earned a solid fig for today's level.....1 hole on the hill is the only obstacle but should help the price
11 Emmy Darling
8 Czechers
10 Sweeter Still
race 9 average clarity
3 Ready For Change seems very well meant today.....long steady work series for 2 1/2 momths.....blinkers off.....and a signicant rider switch....and the ever dangerous drop out of MSW races
1 California Colonel
8 Edenise
9 My Friend Bernie
10 Cherokee Sun
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