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Santa Anita for Wednesday 23 March 2011
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With top jocks Rosario, Bejarano, and Espinoza overseas for the Dubai World Cup the wealth might be spread around a bit more in the jock's room this week. With that in mind I have to say that it is still rather amazing that I have Alicea as my top selection in 3 races today. He is a much better rider then his 7% win percentage and has a good opportunity to show it today.
Good card for our 1st Wednesday of racing in quite some time. Every race was rated at least "average clarity".
race 1 average clarity
6 Felony easily the best early speed in this field.....I'd say about a 75% shot to be loose and lonely on the lead.....bred fine to get the 1 mile distance
4 Mo Bettah rather sure last was a gimme (training awfully well to run so poorly) to drop and run mo bettah today 1st time in maiden claiming......decent chance to get a nice chase position
1 Tia Tia 32 to 1 strongly suggests MSW debut last was the tune-up for today's drop to the bottom level of maiden claimers at SA.....has trained like an animal that should fit just fine at today's level
race 2 slightly above average clarity
4 Island Sunset ran some strong 2 turn conventional dirt races last Fall at Fpx.......needed last....positive rider switch.....should be prominent from the get go
1 Royal Mango all four lifetime endeavors on conventional dirt fit fine....has been declining but has a very reassuring recent work suggesting this gelding is still in good enough form to handle the bottom 8K level
2 Jack O' Lantern excellent history for Hess when he takes the blinkers off like today....1st at a route but bred to appreciate a route of ground
race 3 slightly above average clarity (picks are the same if the races are moved to the main track)
2 Britt's Brother excellent MSW debut run and stellar breeding for the sod......trainer is strong 1st time on the grass and with 2nd time starters
1 ENTRY not crazy about the 1 horse but the 1A and 1X both appear to be nice runners
4 Celtic Charmer laid up proven turf runner is wound up like a top with nice prolonged tightly spaced work series
10 Take A Yard last wasn't bad considering the long hiatus from the races.....work series since is strong and we have a major jockey upgrade
race 4 average clarity
7 Easy On The Eye appears to have found new life as a distance horse....beat the other contenders in here last time at 1 mile and the extra 1/16 sure looks to be in his favor....Knapp/John 3 straight.....can that really happen?
5 Nitro Active small move forward in last back to a route race from a sprint....and today we get a positive rider switch....if we get the same effort as his last combined with a much better rider we will have a major contender
4 Troubletimesthree plodder will need the race to collapse badly or bounce back to the effort he put in in his races 4 and 5 back
Note: number 3 Egypt has a shot if the track comes up good or sloppy
race 5 average clarity
3 El Scorpio strong race 2 back and the recent drills suggest he will rebound to it off a 6 week break....fits under the category fresh speed is dangerous speed....can be loose
5 Lukimbi impressive win after being away from the races for over 1 1/2 years.....decent fig earned and it sure seems like a good sign that he steps up quite a bit today
6 Magnificent Blend ultra consistent animal (has won 7 of his last 10)was just snatched up at the claiming box at GG.....owns 5 wins out of 9 starts on conventional dirt
race 6 average clarity
3 Preshow Shirreffs is heating up and he is much better with 2nd time starters.....debut run sprinting was a par like effort for the level and she is bred just fine to get the 1 mile distance...expecting more today
6 Tribal Charm 50 to 1 in MSW debut and only got beat by 1 1/2 lengths......doubt was all that cranked up and the barn was probably surprised how well she preformed......pointed for today and a ton if she benefited a lot from her "tightener"....bred OK to run a route of ground
9 Bila Shaka ran nasty fractions in her last (albiet on the lawn) and still only got beat by a neck...proven two turns but not proven on the dirt...better than average pedigree to handle it
4 Cookinthisorthat works have never been better and this filly was already showing good form...might be poised for lifetime best
race 7 average clarity (here are the selections if the race is moved to the main track: 3-2-7-4
2 She'sfitforaking best ever was at SA on a course rated good....that or yielding is what we should have today...off pace runner gets a field with plenty of speed types
3 Frigid Bridget solid last 2 going a mile on the main track.....interesting turf pedigree but unproven
4 Jax El needs a rebound to her effort 3 races back
6 Unknown Heat back in short rest off of a 1 1/4 race is no easy task but her race 2 back was good (very bad trip and still only beat by 6)....trainer is known for getting horses to fire off of very short rest
race 8 slightly above average clarity
6 Aqua Fever 3 of his 4 lifetime races are quite strong for today's mc level both pace wise and final time wise....you would be wise to use him
5 Fine And Rare very solid efforts in last 2 races and bad trips hide the efforts especailly his last where he dueled on a dull suspect inside
2 Free From My Ex very solid work series for a maiden claimer of 30K says ready to roll and well meant for debut
7 Depth useful debut and likely to build on that effort today for the ever dangerous Sadler barn.....like the fact he bothered to work this gelding Monday in the slop...seems like strong intent
3 Preferred Mandate seemingly moves up quite a lot with moisture in the track and that appears likely according to the weather fore-cast...will need to fire best ever to compete for the top prize
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