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Hollywood for Saturday 7 May 2011

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Kentucky Derby race 11 from Churchill Downs

15  Midnight Interlude sure like his mid pack style....plenty of front running types and plenty of deep closers.....impressive MSW victory very much in hand even with solid pace...then he won the Santa Anita Derby in a strong effort.....last might get the job done with a good trip but this horse appears to upside potential when many in here do not.....lookout he he peaks today

8  Dialed In done very little wrong in 4 lifetime starts......1 for 1 at CD.....bred and runs as if he will appreciate the 1 1/4 grind

17  Soldat moves up in the slop so watch the skies......fell off after 2 very strong efforts......good drills since hint that this colt will rebound today

19  Nehro powerful late runner will need a clever trip from Nakatani from the 19th hole......can fly late in be in the mix when it counts if he gets it

18  Uncle Mo brilliant runner at 1 1/16 miles or less.....career best was lone race at CD winning the BC Juv. so maybe he can get the grueling distance

 

Rather easy to toss out about 1/2 the field  in the Derby. Sure wasn't last year. Hope you have a great day on this special day for thoroughbred racing fans.

Race 1: (Slightly Above Average Clarity)
1 - Millie N Marie - Pedroza, rail, speed, gone
2 - Social Event - Lone race at the trip not too bad..should hug the rail all the way

Race 2: (Average Clarity)
4 - Erbeia - like the improved works with blinks added..should get enough pace to run at
2 - Kevlar Kid - got a great trip in last and rates to get another..a little leery of the early career seconditis for the probable chalk
1 - Tiz a Knight - small but capable barn has put some nice works into this bomber who owns the only win at this trip

Race 3: (Average Clarity)
4 - Sidney's Candy - enough ?'s to make it interesting, but he will be tough
5 - Spurrier - returns to best distance and favorite track off a big work

Race 4: (Slightly Below Average Clarity)
7 - Nereid - solid debut last fall and has been working very well for her return..excellent turf breeding
2 - Last Sting - last better than it looked..expect improvement second after layoff
5 - Izshelegal - working great for her "maiden" debut, 5 straight stakes races notwithstanding..so-so turf breeding
3 - Simply Carina - was somewhat competitive on the right coast turf circuit..see if she can bring it to the left coast off a layoff

Race 5: (Average Clarity)
3 - Cost of Freedom - 8 yr old win machine gets reunited with T Baze..will be tough even if he has lost a step
4 - Goggles McCoy - ships south off strong win and big work..needs to let someone else duel the top choice this time
5 - Bulldogger - will try to stalk the expected hot pace and hope for the best

Race 6: (Slightly Above Average Clarity)
3 - El Merito - simply ran huge last out..solid interim works and a projected good mid-pack trip say he can do it again
5 - State Gathering - solid effort off the layoff and claimed by Avila..puts his main boy up to attempt a wire job
4 - Saravas Wild Again - nice improvement in last and some competitive Top Turf Today numbers..big work this week may mean we'll see one
1 - Control Seeker - returns to best distance and should get a ground saving trip

Race 7: (Average Clarity)
5 - Gallatin's Run - race lacks speed, he's got some and Mitchell puts up a top speed rider..box to wire
6 - Silver Stetson Man - though lightly raced, 7 yr old looks to be on the way down..50% cut in tag says now or never
2 - Straightomidnite - returns to the Avila/Berrio combine where he enjoyed his best days..one for one at the trip
8 - Bertran Hill - Cerin has been strong with 1st claims and layoffs..horse has trouble closing the deal but would use in gimmicks

Race 8: (Average Clarity)
9 - Rock Off - debut did not set up well, but he still ran a strong hidden fig..bullet work last week indicates better coming
3 - Brutally Handsome - lone turf try better than par..Pupye/Flores tandem has been smoking lately
2 - Green Cat - big improvement in last..a little more puts him right there
1A - Thinking of Girls - like that he has worked the distance for his debut..excellent turf breeding

Race 9: (Average Clarity)
8 - Caffeine High - last feels like a "what have I got" workout for Ellis..today is the go
13 - Honor Among Us - moved forward off the claim and works say trend will continue..tough post
11 - Klassy Saint - steady improvement in all 3 outings..obviously playable but would go against him on top if he's the chalk
7 - Marcy's Woods - big time sleeper..2 races that fit and a monster work last week

Race 10: (Slightly Above Average Clarity)
3 - Wave of Applause - loose on a huge pace and rightfully tired,,shortens up + drops weight = try to catch me
2 - Cambina - strong Top Turf Today fig in last..hoping for the same pace set up
8 - Justenufappeal - Northern Cal shipper ran solidly in turf debut..should get a good stalking trip
6 - Great Hot - several pluses and minuses..factor if he takes to the surface and distance

Race 11: (Average Clarity)
8 - Bella Giornatti - solid 2nd at this trip off the 1/2 year layoff..2nd out improvement will make her tough
5 - Wicked Trip - here's your wire attempt
1 - Homework - tough to play on top but cannot leave out of the gimmicks
11 - Warren's Genius - took some action in debut but ran poorly..training much better for return
12 - Saratoga Lov - 84-1 says not intended in debut..passed some horses in stretch which is more than many in here can say

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