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Del Mar for Thursday 28 July 2011
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Don't have to be right a lot today as our top choice averages over 8 to 1. Not an easy card by any means but sure has the potential to be lucrative.
Yesterday's pick 5 payoff was extremely generous for the odds and/or ability of the winners. In general the pick 5 payoffs have been a pleasant surprise especially considering you can spread out some with the 50 cent base.
race 1 average clarity
2 Evelyn's Dancer very high percentage invading trainer takes over this invader who crushed her foes in decent time even for a track like Emd
3 Savy Smiles might be a real good claim by Bacorn because this filly won her debut in hand while racing wide.....trainer has a stout record 1st out after a claim
1 Real Dream 2 decent runs in 2 lifetime races....off since April but the works strongly suggest she is ready to roll fresh
race 2 slightly below average clarity
3 Granite Girl drops to lowest level ever for her 1st try on the main track.....training awfully well on the SA training track for someone like Vienna who seldom pushes his stock too hard in the A.M.
7 Malusita solid history on the AW when running 2 turns.....likes ample time between starts and gets it
2 Jana Gail improving sort steps up once again......might be feeling quite good
6 Dave's Revenge quite often a bit of a goof but when he runs "settled" his race he fits fine versus these
race 3 slightly below average clarity
6 Giveitupforthelady hmmmm....blinkders off and a blistering bullet 5/8ths drill out of nowhere for this price shot....and last sure looked like a tune-up...
7 Roman Chic morning glory so far........but morning glory's often run when they are on the lead and she might get it here
3 Woodman's Luck last looks like a sprint gimme for today's full throttle go at a route.....positive rider switch
2 Zee's Chris efforts/figs fit fine for this maiden 20K level but sure looks like a hanger.......Bejarano gives it a go for the 4th time in a row
Longshot Possibilities: 1 Warren's Genius on the right end of the learning curve sprinting and now tries a route.....so so distance pedigree but a good post and positive rider change
race 4 average clarity
8 Sammy's A Runnin' closer seemingly gets plenty of pace to put in his close.......appears to be feeling great off of some sharp AM work
6 L. A. Weekend brilliant speed in debut 2 races back......solid pedigree to appreciate a turf sprint
1 Pop'shands Are Hot another late runner with a favorable pace scenario......good post as well........does tend to hang some
3 Danzig Tribal proven ability fresh off of the bench.......decent turf sprinter has a good chance to get a nice stalk/mid pace position and try and ponce in the stretch
NOTE: 13 Connagher has a shot if he draws in off of the AE's
race 5 average clarity
6 Aliza's Dream turf to dirt angle here.....last time it was used this gelding fired a solid effort/effort (2 back )......Puype sure has been on an extended roll
9 Dixie Trouper very solid career all 5 lifetime starts on the AW.....1st out after the claim for Chew who is decent in that category....1 for 1 at today's distance
8 Via Verde Sadler claim back is a solid threat if he is ready off a 7 weeks break in the action
7 El Scorpio another claim back.....laid up 8 weeks but training great and has a good history running fresh
race 6 average clarity
11 La Sombre solid grass fig/effort in layoff run last........ran 2nd in his MSW debut at Dmr last August despite a bad trip......and sharp recent bullet work
10 Sunburn lost rider at the start in last but ran well in debut ....much better than appears in print
5 Amelia Rose showed she can run fresh in her last......needs to do it again....would have rated higher if it wasn't for the lack of recent drills....then again Puype trains
4 Evasive Charmer both out of town efforts are decent....probably only needs a couple of lengths of improvement to compete for the top prize
race 7 slightly above average clarity
5 Jax El shorter rest.....much better drill......loose as usual....all add up to a rebound and enough horse for P Val to have a shot at wiring the field
4 All Star Heat great job of conditioning by Mac since he took over....should be flying late
3 Berg Bahn toss out last didn't care much for the main track....back to the turf where 2 back this filly fired a strong effort.....good mid pack ground saving position seems likely
9 Bella Swan should be in a distant chase position and get 1st crack at our top pick down the stretch
race 8 average clarity
6 Taylor Marini tough trip in mc debut last and still managed 3rd at 29 to 1......believe fitter today and can upset if he gets an improved trip
2 Ancient Coin solid move forward in last and now switches owner and trainer to Hollendorfer......if he wanted the horse that's good enough for me
7 Warren's Digger somewhat hidden forward move in last in that he had decent close into a very slow pace up front
10 Stoney Fleece 1st timer seems fit enough to compete in this spot and has a hot trainer conditioning him
9 Swiss Guard debut race 3 back fits well here
3 Saros Secret improving sort needs the trend line to continue
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