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Hollywood for Friday 9 December 2011
Seemingly one of the better cards in quite a long time. Not one race rated lower than average clarity. Whenever I finish handicapping and I feel that I can state "win or lose this is a good card"Â I know I truly like what I see. Let's hope for the same even racing surfaces we have been getting and our fair share of good trips.
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race 1Â Â Â average clarity
6 Nice Meidal  good history when up for a tag......has been facing older and quite a bit better
1 Brown Is Beige  better horse on the sod then the main track......in fact 3 of 4 of her lifetime grass races are better then par for today's level
2 Skipton Creek  works are good......laid up awhile but fired fresh the last time she had a break.......steadily improving on the lawn
race 2Â Â Â average clarity
2 You'llalwaysbemine  Hollendorfer has a strong Chi-town connection and jumped after this M15K graduate (that won by 20 lengths at Haw) that fits extremely well in today's 2nd race condition
1 Twilight Memory  Eric Reed hasn't been very impressive so far but this filly invader has been facing better and will be a major factor if she is ready
6 Mama Janka  poor journey in last hides a decent effort......race 2 back at Fpx is a fairly good effort as well......low % rider will need to be clever to put this one in the hunt at the wire
race 3Â Â Â slightly above average clarity
8 Small But Mighty  high % trainer/rider combo......good history with short rest like today.....caught wide with pace in last......solid history for this mare since Mitchell claimed....what's new ?
3 Irridescent Red  also good back in relatively short rest......Hendricks is quite good 3rd out after the layoff
6 Kruz'n Kitty  very good trainer/jock combo......5 furlongs is a good fit for both the horse and the Guce
4 Can't Topper  likes the Hollywood synthetic......capable of taking back just off of the pace and that seems wise here with plenty of speed-balls in this and most 5F affairs for older horses
race 4Â Â Â average clarity
5 Gatheratthealter  claimed for 20K dropped to 16K and won......big step up to 32K suggests the horse feels awfully good......2 wins in 3 grass races and I believe the other grass race was only a tune-up....2 for 2 in my book
2 Every Ego  1st time Aguirre is usually a dangerous thing......horse has been on the improve as well
1 Hurricane Lake  last 2 races fit fine if Mitchell can get the same run out of this gelding on the sod
3 Special Kid  horse has a good history when he can sit just off of the pace which he has an opportunity to do in this spot.....if he goes to the lead Vergara best slow things thing as he tends to wait on horses in the stretch when he leads
race 5Â Â Â average clarity
8 Frannie  talk about getting the most out of limited starters (4 for 9 in 2011)........trainer usually has his stock ready fresh including 1st timers
1 Adios Problemas  excellent work tab for this 1ster and the trainer is solid with maiden claiming 1st timers
2 Beautiful Strike  been absent since her 2nd place lifetime debut in May but Miller is quite good with 2nd timers coming off of extended breaks
5 Sweetsouthernambar  bad trip in maiden debut last.....Sutherland needs to smooth things out and the filly needs to move forward a touch.....if so she seemingly has as good a shot as anyone in this spot
race 6Â Â Â slightly above average clarity
6 Got Even  SCRATCH  nasty 1st on the sod.......wide on turn 1 and still was close to the fastest 6F turf route split this meet and most meets....rightfully spit the bit......Miller smartly cuts her back to 6F
3 Sweet Swap SCRATCH   also owns some good early speed albeit on the main track......excellent work tab.........excellent grass pedigree.......top echelon jock......top echelon trainer
4 Champions Gate  won debut with Rosario with a good trip.....butchered by Rosario in his next 2 races.....Rosario sticks with the horse for his 1st ever on the sod and being the Pro that he is he will be out to make amends......decent turf pedigree
8 Runstevierun  major jockey switch.....horse has proved he can handle the grass.....will need a big pace set up front and that seems likely at about a 60/40% rate leaning in his favor.......if he gets the needed pace he can be flying late from far back
race 7Â Â Â average clarity
7 Sea Rascal  exits a fast heat running 2nd and so his trainer smartly steps him up a notch......should be able to sit mid pack behind what has a good chance at being a lively pace....good history at Hol and at 6F
4 Frumious  exits a fast heat caught 3 wide too close to a blistering pace.....heat before last was also very fast......continues to train stellar......Bonde is red hot.......but.....the rider is not.....I can live with 3 positives and 1 negative
1 Circle Drive   solid forward move the last time this gelding ran turf to Hol AW.....that is today's scenario....good chance to sit 2nd or 3rd behind a suspect leader in the 2 horse who hasn't held on to the lead since June of 2010 and that was in a 5F affair
6 Scofield Barracks  Sadler just claimed and he smartly places this gelding in a 6 furlong race where he does his best running
race 8Â Â Â slightly above average clarity
2 Centenenario De Oro  chased a hot 1/4 in his debut last and still just missed....and now we get a jokey upgrade....trainer is decent with 2nd timers
6 Bluffside  showed ample ability in maiden claiming debut last.......broke slow and ran ran wide and only got beat by 3 lengths
9 Our Last Minute  long hiatus from the race wars but Vienna horses have been ready to roll at 1st asking this Hollywood meet
5 Remember Mike  away for 10 days short of 2 years but training like he is ready and Bejarano accepts the mount
4 Mudd Pie  yet another coming off of a long layoff and traing up to snuff to be ready fresh.....new trainer on the Cal racing scene does fairly well with limited starters
3 Wisest Cat owns some ability but I would only use for a smaller slice of the pie in your exotics
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