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Santa Anita for Sunday 25 March 2012
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Rain looks likely today so I am expecting an off track and yielding turf. Two Graded turf races so they will likely stay on the grass.
I don't like off tracks and especially studying them. Too many unknowns especially in California. One of the major reasons I enjoy doing the S Cal handicapping for The Racing Digest is that most days it is fast and firm on the S Cal racing scene.Â
race 1Â Â Â slightly below average clarity
4 Halfapondarosa   ultra consistent sort.......just snatched at the claiming box by a hot trainer.......back in 2 weeks....likely to fire a strong race if of course he handles the off track
5 Lunch Time Diva  1 for 1 at the somewhat specialty distance of 7F.......works sure have sharpened since her last......which was a run on the sod that looks like it legged this filly up some
2 Salty Sarah   suspicious drop.....toss a coin.....fragile animal might scratch if the track comes up sloppy
race 2Â Â slightly below average clarity
3 Kwik  late runner moves way up in the slop......put this horse as the 3rd selection if the track comes up "fast" *** came up fast so 3rd pick
4 No Stadium  wide trip in last hides an improved effort.....switch to higher % trainer and switch to the meets leading rider
2 Capture Th Call    lead type only will need to put away the 1 horse who also is prominent from the get go
race 3Â Â Â average clarity
1 Tiz Liberty  way wide and close to strong pace and still won his last....same effort/energy with a smoother trip and he should easily handle the rise in class
3 Rocket Roan  ultra consistent sort and 1st after the claim for Pederson.......trainer is stellar sending his new runner out for the 1st time.....only lifetime race on a off track is good
6 Miles Heir  likes the distance and handles it off or fast.......Spawr has been producing winners off his newly claimed horses lately
race 4   average clarity     If the race is off the grass the selections are 5 - 4- 2
5 Bourbon Bay  most of this horse's career in marathon grass races are better than any in here have ever run
2 Utopian  steadily improving sort runs like he can get the 1 1/2 miles and has the right trainer to properly condition him for it
3 Porfido   old timer thinks he is 5........Harty has done an outstanding job with this 10 year old since he took over the training responsibilities
race 5Â Â Â average clarity
3 Hidden Blessing  wide trip in last......earned an adjusted for trouble fig that fits fine at today's drop down level.......reassuring solid 3F work since
2 My Man Sumo  good effort 1st out after the layoff and Ellis must like what he sees because he steps this gelding up a couple of claiming levels.......1 for 1 on an off track
1 Cut Fastball  has fired to some degree in all 4 lifetime starts on conventional dirt......positive rider switch....can sit close in striking position
7 Afleeet Deal   blinkers on......and very sharp drills (most likely with the blinkers on) hint this 6 year old is ready and meant fresh off of the bench....3 for 7 at the distance
race 6Â Â Â average clarity
1 Babeneau  Ellis horse's have been firing......filly can be prominent from the get go with light weight solid apprentice aboard......horse ran well in only lifetime race on an off track
6 Candys Girl  let's go Joe....2 straight wide trips kept this filly out of the winners circle......blinkers on ....more speed likely today and that looks like a plus in this spot
7 Lovely Sophia  running like needed a break and got one.....seems to run her very best with ample time off.......works also she say is meant and ready
8 Game Charmer  bombed in last........needs a rebound....not sure we are going to get one but dangerous if we do
Possible Long-shot: 4 Tiz Final  bad 2nd lifetime start in 2011.....debut run in 2010 is better than appears in print.....new trainer in 2012 .......works hint she has a handle on the horse and might be ready off the long layoff
race 7   average clarity    If the race is off the grass the selections are 11 - 9 - 3 - 1
2 Cambina   seems to fire every start......and has a great history when Gomez rides......yielding grass should not be a problem
6 Camelia Rose  blocked in last or would have won USA debut for fun.......well proven on non-firm turf conditions in France....leading rider Rosario remains abroad
9 Bauble Queen  done little wrong in 3 lifetime Graded races....runs well with ample time between starts and gets it......non-firm turf is a ? mark
1 Vamo A Galupiar  deep closer is well proven on grass that isn't firm.....should be flying very late
Possible Long-shot:  5 Imperialistic Diva  might move forward quite a bit if the course comes up yielding
race 8Â Â Â average clarity
3 Bull Ring  back to the main track after a so so run on the sod....can get a nice mid pack position behind what looks like a lively pace
1 So Tough  won mc debut way back in August by double digits...claimed and looks like Sadler has this 2nd timer starter healthy and happy
5 Lead Blocker  laid up since May but....very solid drills for Tsagalakis who doesn't push his stock too hard in the a.m........seldom used rider seems to do just fine when she does ride in S Cal including a top choice winner for yours truly a couple of years ago and at a price
7 Private Bounty  very consistent on the AW.....only race on the conventional dirt is'nt so hot....deserves another shot especially with a hot trainer at the controls
race 9Â Â Â average clarity
2 Smart Hombre   improving sort owns decent early speed in a race that lacks it....Jones/Berrios are a solid rider/trainer combo
9 Father Pabst  solid recent 5F drill and seemingly can pop the quickest quarter and half here....shot to wire
10 Abualulco  1st timer just flashed a very impressive 4F bullet gate drill........mom has tossed 9 winners from 10 foals......seems meant and ready
8 Just Jumped In  improving sort.......Spawr is rather hot of late....can get a nice mid pack position
12 Clocker Moment  best ever was his only run on an off track.......dangerous especially if the off track comes up a little outside
4 Crestatore   inconsistent horse can be a factor if he brings his "A game"
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