Printer Friendly View Printer Friendly View

Hollywood for Saturday 5 May 2012

[private]

Derby Day

 

race 11   2012 KENTUCKY DERBY   average clarity

6 BODEMEISTER  powerful fig with strong pace 3 races back and also his last at OP…..2 back isn’t too shabby either…..Baffert knows what it takes to win the Derby…..hoping the colt rates back sitting in 3rd, 4th or 5th off a hot projected pace

3 TAKE CHARGE INDY  bad trip in the BC Juv last year at CD and still didn’t embarrass himself…….wired on a day at GP where speed wasn’t exactly king

4 UNION RAGS   done little wrong in 6 lifetime starts….boxed up some in last….tough call just how much….training sharply

8 CREATIVE CAUSE   fires every time with few reasons not to believe that he won’t once again……one negative might be that the trainer doesn’t ship too often

15 GEMOLOGIST   bred to run all day long so I doubt the distance will be a problem…….undefeated at 4 different tracks in 5 races….2 wins at CD…. one negative is trainer has a weak history in the Derby with many stout looking horses

19 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER  liked him in the SA derby and he came thru nicely……tough post but he has enough speed to clear some and get on over……previous route race at SA was also a solid effort/win

 

race 1    slightly above average clarity

6  Awesome Again  Walhter Solis wins at a very high level in these early baby races and this filly is training better than most he sends out

4  Shrinking Violet   Ward is usually loaded with precocious 2 year year olds and this youngster is training like she is ready off of some good work at Kee

1  Unusual Way   another training like she is totally ready to roll in her debut into the wonderful world of thoroughbred racing.....mom tosses precious babies....trainer is more than capable

3  Empire Maker    mom has tossed 6 winners from 6 starters.......works are good enough

 

race 2    slightly below average clarity

3  American Tanker   both lifetime races last year are quite a bit better than appear in print....has fired well fresh in both of those races so I expect he will come out ready again.....hot trainer the last 6 weeks

1  Bi Flash   good move forward in 2nd lifetime race....like the fact it was a grass race.....grass horses usually handle Hollywood's synthetic well

8  Big Men In Black   another with a forward move in latest and on the sod........trainer sends out few but he usually sends them out ready

4  Noble Kent    ran well 1st at a route albeit on the slop at SA.......same effort on the AW fits fine her

 

race 3    slightly above average clarity

5  Floating Feather   big bad trip strong effort in last......fits fine at today's higher level with a relatively clean trip....claimed by West and the works suggest he claimed a horse on the upswing

4  Sourdough Sam   slow start to 2012 for Dean Pederson (1 for 16) who likes to win races.....so the drop seems logical.....horse has been facing better....4 for 8 on the AW

2  Via Verde    won at one notch higher in last.......solid reassuring work since......claimed for only 25K so why not run when you can even dropping from 40K......these races don't fill that well

 

race 4    slightly below average clarity

6  Hello Frankie    wide with pace in layoff last hides this fellow's return effort........ran well in 2nd lifetime start which usually means that 2nd out after a layoff has promising potential

8  Classical Hy   useful debut and the trainer is more dangerous with 2nd timers.........mom has produced a stellar 10 winners from 11 foals and when this guy wins today or some day it will be 12 for 12

2  Indicator   overdo drop out of MSW racing.........will need best ever but the drop out of MSW racing often makes for significant wake-ups

9  Chicago Hero   improved in 2nd lifetime run on 19 April....back quick so might feel good......will need a little more but better today is a possibility

 

race 5    average clarity

2  Graser    owns significant early foot and should be able to wire these grass cutters if she harnesses her speed to some extend.......can run from off it it as well.....a big plus

6  Belle Passe   last was OK....previous was very solid somewhat hidden by a bad trip.......pedigree and the 1 mile distance on the grass are a good fit......good shot to be in a good chase position.....might even lead if our top pick doesn't get it

5  Byrama   rank early in last or had a decent shot at the win instead of 2nd.........3 lbs off combined with a better trip and she fits solidly here as well

7  My Gi Gi   needs a major rebound......maybe her new trainer can get the past out of this filly.......drills seem good enough

 

race 6    average clarity

3  Excessive Passion   stellar history running fresh like today......has to be ready.....only 9 lifetime races run in 3 years time

4  Obviously   3 wins and a near win in last 4 races........solid grass race in last handling decent pace in a duel and still winning....1 for 1 on the AW overseas.....Mitchell is awakening

6  Flightofalifetime   should appreciate the abbreviated 5F sprint distance.....has as good a shot as anyone in here to snatch the front....not usually a bad thing in a 5 furlong race

8  Italian Rules   needs a clever ride from a tough post at 5F.........doubt fast enough to consider clearing so might need to take back and get over

 

race 7    average clarity

11  Southern Exposure   hard to run much better in two lifetime starts and still be a MSW........1st on the grass is a question mark.......OK pedigree for it

6  Fable Heaven    debut race 2 back was on the turf and it was fairly decent........probably needs more though and can get it 2nd out after the layoff

9  Canuletmedowneasy   fits fairly well and the weight off  with the apprentice aboard might help overcome the top two

8  My Best Brother   much improved in last 1st out after the layoff and 2nd lifetime start....1st on the lawn......bred to handle it.......he can compete here 2nd out after the long layoff with a solid move forward

 

race 8    slightly below average clarity

5  Slammer Time   last win came turf to AW and it was an 1 1/16 affair  on the Hol synthetic....and this time the gelding is running off a stronger grass race

2  Admission   seems like best speed in the race..........7 weeks off since SA last....Fall of last year had a 6 week break after SA which led to a powerful run at Hol at today's distance with Guce aboard....same jock here

4  Valley Cat   consistent sort comes running late when they put on the heat up front....some shot if that occurs here

8  Nextdoorneighbor   better than appears in print especially in main track route races......hints at being a hanger somewhat

 

race 9    slightly below average clarity

1  Mia Isabelle   SCRATCHED on the right end of the learning curve and needed last.......seems poised for a top effort today.....race 2 back is quite strong for a 2 year old filly in Aug

8  Love My Way    has never been headed.......looks loose and even though it isn't football season he might............go...........all...........the............way

3  Emerald Gold   big races at 2 on the AW......toss out lone grass race....... it was on yl turf at Kee.......wound up nicely in the a.m. by stout turf conditioner in Proctor

9  Starship Flare    solid sprint history 6 1/2 furlongs or lass...........6F today

12 Hidinginplainsight

 

race 10    average clarity

5  Kettle Corn   ultra consistent late runner who makes a serious move on the 2nd turn of his route races when he is right.....laid up since Dec. but seems ready off a nice work regiment

7  Awesome Gem   ran as well as ever at 8.....can he continue to do as well at 9 ?.....good prep at GG and a bullet work since.....all systems seem to point to a likelihood that he can

1  Jaycito   if this colt is ever going to rebound to his early 2 year old form he is likely to do it on the AW..........training like a long sought after rebound might happen today

2  Prayer For Relief   works are better on the Hol AW than they were on the SA dirt.....maybe the change in surfaces wakes this capable Baffert runner up.......trouble if he does awaken

 

race 11    average clarity

9  Merlin Z    training lights out of late........only race at 6F on the Hollywood AW is a monster of an effort and would crush these....might see it today if he can fire off of such sizzling and possibly stressful drills

3  Kumite   done little wrong in 2 lifetime races and has yet to get a good trip.....new trainer and new rider.....might smooth things out and get that good journey around the track

1  Wild Gray   best ever was lone race at Hol......and just worked a fast 4F near bullet drill bak on the Hol surface..........hmmmmmmm

10  What A Rush   sharp trainer just claimed and is out of jail with this horse yet he still steps up.....a good sign he likes what he sees

5  Warren's Patron

12  Private Bounty

 

 

 

[/private]

Posted on May 4, 2012 at 8:08 pm by richs · Permalink
In: Members Area