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Del Mar for Friday 20 July 2012

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A little speed bump yesterday in what I believe will once again be a very lucrative Del Mar meeting. It takes hard work on my part but I am always up for it as I have a strong passion for handicapping the ponies especially for the S Cal. racing circuit. 

Note:  Gomez is on our top pick twice and our 2nd pick twice in the 1st four races and I think Gomez will give Bejarano a run for his money for the racing title at Del Mar. Average price of those 4 horses is about 4 to 1.

 

race 1    slightly above average clarity

6  Promiscuoussuances    laid up since October but working sharply.......capable of significant early speed especially versus her competition here......decent shot to be loose with Garrett Gomez up and O'Neill trained......can't ask for much more

1  Easy Goes By   filly responded to her new trainer in last 1st out after the claim........and jock knows this runner well having been up for almost all her career races.....solid reassuring work since her impressive last race

2  Dancingtothestars   another O'Neill runner........on the improve with every start......very formidable if the trend continues this afternoon

 

race 2    average clarity

5  Bling Cha Bling    laid up since December but working as if ready and she has twice proven she can fire fresh.........1 for 1 on the grass.......very talented individual when she brings his "A game"

7  A Toast To You   done little wrong in 3 lifetime grass races........lone race with today's jock up was rather solid.......Miller/Gomez have been a good combo the last couple of months

1  A Toe By Three   another Miller entry......3 year old gelding has been an every other sort his whole career  and today the pendulum swings in his favor

3  Red Defense   Iron Curtain horse just got claimed for the 2nd straight time......won in last despite falling off fig/effort wise......that race gets beat here but a rebound to his previous 2 races would make the one to overcome

 

race 3    slightly above average clarity

7  D'princess   seemingly owns the best early gas here.......I sure like the switch to the successful apprentice and his 5 lbs. off.......very sharp a.m. work......and trainer Canani is starting to heat things up some

6  Blushing Martha   ships in from New York and shows up in the dangerous O'Neill barn......very impressive recent 5F bullet work......would have been top choice if it wasn't for a tendency hang in the stretch

4  Heleonor Rugby    just claimed by Hollendorfer and he drops this filly a notch.......my guess is the reason her new trainer snatched her at the claiming box is because of her prowess on the Dmr synthetic (3 2 0 1)

3  Warrens Vendalucy   major forward move in last at the seldom run distance of 7 1/2 furlongs....not sure where the significant move forward came from but lookout if this filly can repeat the effort at a different racetrack and a much shorter 1 turn distance of 6F

 

race 4    average clarity

3  Miss Well Molded    powerful effort/fig for the level in last........same effort and a decent trip easily make her the one to beat.....Gomez remains up

5  Passionville   toss out final time/ fig in last......no pace whatsoever so a predictably bad  final time.....previous effort is solid.....Bejarano sticks with the horse

2  Zanbo   improving sort fits fine here if she can run at her best with 7 weeks off and only 3 works since......seems like a 50/50 proposition

9  Marlenadarlena   MSW debut which was on the sod was quite good and it is hidden by a bad trip-a-roo.......not too shabby in last run which was on the AW but more importantly this runner settled down with the blinkers on.........very solid drills in preparation for her 1st long race on the grass

Long-shot Possibilities:   1  Scientific   toss out last....sat too far off a lackluster pace......effort 2 back fits.....seemingly will need a near perfect trip but has the right post to get one

 

race 5    slightly below average clarity

7  Itssultryinthecape    ran this low 1st time raced at SA in 2012 close to opening day so why not drop to the bottom....folks love to get their picture taken at Dmr

5  Deputiformer   Mullins has started off the meet rather hot....so imagine this laid up drop down is ready to roll

8  My Man Sumo   Morey wins at an unreal 40% clip 1st after the claim with a large sampling....solid races 2 straight and now drops one notch

6  Bereton Park   very good history with short rest and that is today's scenario for this gelding also dropping one small level

NOTE FOR LARGE ROLLING BET PLAYERS:  numbers 1, 12, and 14 are not at all impossible in this field as well

 

race 6    slightly above average clarity

3  Distort This   race has a distinct lack of early speed which should enhance this shippers front running chances....good speed turf rider up

9  Seventh Avenue   might own enough early foot to get on over from the 9 post.......positive jock change should help.....fits fine if sits close enough and saves some ground

8  You Know I Know   earned a big adjusted for trouble fig in last breaking MSW despite a very wide trip....best save some ground here or unlikely to repeat

7  Ransom Canyon   improving with every start and now with get a rider upgrade....deep closer hoping for more pace than anticipated

Long-shot Possibilities:   6  Paratito   most likely needed his last his 1st in the USA and 1st since May of 2011........beat a horse in lifetime debut in Italy who would be favorite here......hmmmmmm

 

race 7    average clarity   NOTE:  difficult to split the 4 picks

6  Awe' Some Kitten   clunker in last.....race 2 back is solid....recent work hints she can rebound to it

2  Tilde    same scenario here.....2 year old needs effort 2 back and the drills hint she might find that superior effort this afternoon/evening

7  Tribal Peace   solid winning lifetime MSW debut both in pace and final time......needs a good trip with the same effort or a move forward with a less than good journey around the track

4  Cotton's Point   good forward move in 2nd lifetime race.....as good a shot as anyone in this race with a another move in the desired direction

 

race 8    average clarity

2  Hammer Bay    last was poor but lookout if this colt rebounds.....he will be a ton if he does

9  Extra Fifty   laid up a year but training as if he is well meant dropping out of MSW racing to the bottom

1  Pork Chop   needed last and it is better than appears on paper....also drops.....people love to get to the circle of joy at beautiful Del Mar

10  Johan   morning glory so far is once again working like a good horse off the long hiatus from the track.....maybe the AW and it's lack of dirt flying in his face wakes his butt up

4  I Run For Fun   1st timer has a tightly spaced work series that says he is fit and ready

11  Sparkle Joel   fits fine at mdn20K but has to overcome a difficult post

 

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Posted on July 20, 2012 at 11:10 am by richs · Permalink
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