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Del Mar for Wednesday 15 August 2012

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Very difficult card today. I believe both of today's large carryovers will pay significantly. Don't see a good "single" all day and that makes things awfully expensive. In the 1st, the 3rd, and the 5th I feel fairly good about going 3 deep. Most difficult race on the card is the 2nd where I can see anyone winning outside of the 1 and the 7 horse.  In the 7th going with our top 2 picks looks good.

Best of luck as always!

 

Take note that we will be offering a special day of full card (usually 13 races) selections on Travers day at Saratoga on 25 August. Sign up will be available in a couple of days. Early bird sign-up will save you a couple of dollars as it has in the past. Selections will be sent in your email the night before Travers day.

 

race 1    slightly below average clarity

1  Slammer Time   1st time Marty Jones is usually a good thing........whole career fits well at today's lower level.......logical overdo drop for a horse that has hardly earned his keep the last few years

6  Muny   4 for 8 at the distance on the grass........stout here if he brings his 'A game"......tough call if he will or not

7  Aqua Fever   very solid work regiment for this Mullin's runner.......believe he has this gelding feeling awfully good.......jock upgrade and a trainer who has had a very solid 2012 with his grass starts

2  Why Not Be Perfect    most likely needed last and now switches to the grass which is this runner's preferred surface by far.......will need very best

 

race 2    slightly below average clarity

8  Oscillator   1st timer sure is training nicely for a bottom level maiden claiming race........showing plenty of foundation in her drills.......trainer/jock teamed up for a win with a 1st timer last month

11  Silver Luna    Knapp runners are doing better than his record would indicate.........his filly here runs well fresh......gets a positive jockey change......she does have to overcome a tendency to hang in the stretch

5  Country Soul   exits an extremely fast heat for a filly mdn20K claimer where getting beat by 13+ lengths wasn't that bad......and besides the horse went off at 22 to 1 for O'Neill which strongly suggests his debut race was needed

12  Tina's Express   good effort considering today's lower level in 2nd lifetime start her 1st run on the AW.......cuts claiming price in half......fits fine here if she gets a decent trip from on outside post

Long-shot Possibilities:   9  She Can Roar   woke up last year in a big way with the blinkers taken off.........off again today

 

race 3    average clarity

1  Hoorayforhollywood   very solid effort in last in his 1st ever on the Dmr AW........seems to appreciate running at 1 mile........stout trainer/rider combo of Bejarano/Baffert

3  Mckenzies Way   somewhat subtle trouble in last two races......broke slowly and then the jock had some trouble in the saddle......also ran a touch wide.....did well to only get beat by 8 1/2......previous race he dueled in nasty pace on a somewhat suspect rail......runs well fresh and is training sharply

4  El Gato Malo   last sure looks like the layoff gimme to drop and go go go today.......our top two runners both have speed so this mid pace runner will be hoping they bang heads some in a heated heat

 

race 4    slightly below average clarity

6  Moreno   very impressive MSW debut just missing the win despite a brutal trip 2 races back......seemed somewhat disinterested in latest....back in 10 days for his 1st ever on the grass and 1st ever at a route.....bred well to handle both

4  Shining Copper   only horse in the field with a run over the grass and the effort was decent........pedigree suggests he should love a route of ground.....trainer is only 1 of his last 30 1st time at a route or he would have been top pick

3  Power Broker   decent MSW debut sprinting on the AW........blinkers on for this Baffert charge who continues to work like a nice horse.....bred fine to handle long on the sod.....but if Baffert has an Achilles heel it is 1st on the grass.....only 11% in his last 62....still very dangerous

2  Lawyer Gabe   1ster timer is well bred to handle the grass and the distance......good post is a big plus for a 1ster debuting in a grass route race.......works suggest he is ready to attempt the tall task of debuting at a route of any sort

 

race 5    average clarity

2  My Gal Candy   claim back by Hollendorfer who under his tutelage won more than 50% of her races......back in for the 32K he claimed her for so that suggest's to me it is full throttle today because he might lose the horse at the claiming box once again

4  Inner Groove   chased a solid pace in last and won in her 1st ever at Dmr.......same distance.....same jock....and 2 lbs less.....seems ready for the challenge of stepping up $12K in claiming

7  Town Belle   all three lifetime route races on the main track are solid......off since Oct. 2012 but loves to run fresh and her work series suggests today will be no different

3  Demure Halo   trainer has yet to get a win at Dmr and so far the competition at Dmr has made Lone Star look bad but it is hard to ignore this gal's record at the distance  (4 2 2 0)

 

race 6    average clarity

8  Lia Juliana    Ellis runner had about 4 1/2 lengths of trip trouble in debut and only got beat by 3 3/4 for the win........and Ellis is better with 2nd timers.....and we get a jock upgrade from a slumping jock to a jock having one of the best meets of his life

4  Stormin Cee's   broke a little tardy and then checked back.....after that ran kind of wide.......sharper works since.....seemingly sitting on lifetime best providing she gets a better journey

7  Royale Capote    another with a bad trip in maiden debut......also gets a rider upgrade and takes the ever significant drop out of MSW racing into a mdn claimer

6  Vonn Nez    has been on the improve this summer and also comes off a tough trip.....off a hair slow and ran 4 wide and still closed well

 

race 7    slightly above average clarity

7  Koast   5F grass race lacks speed and that should put this ratable horse on the lead or in a good ground saving chase position......3 year old but the 5lbs less today more than makes up for his age

5  Lakerville   ultra impressive off pace runner owns 4 wins and 1 2nd in 5 lifetime races all sprinting on the turf.....should come flying as usual

2  Silver Summation   very stout turf sprinter last Fall and Winter........maybe time off of 2 1/2 months can help him regain his top form which would fit here

3  Sirocco Strike   owns some solid back efforts/figs that fit here........needed last off of the layoff........6 lbs off a plus......will need very best to upset here

 

race 8    average clarity

4  A Day Away   solid last at the same tag.....same distance.....same post.....same rider.......back in short rest....only lifetime race back in short rest was quite good

8  Givimaway   last fits well today at the mdn20K claiming level.....race 2 back his only ever at today''s 1 1 /6 distance is very strong.....drop not much of a concern for someone like O'Neill who has a barn full of runners

3  Ever Alert    takes a significant drop in maiden levels.......that is a concern here for Kitchingmhan who doesn't have a barn full of runners......tough call but very dangerous

7  Sedona Ridge   washy and acted up very badly in last.....easy to toss it out.....prior race ran big.....very bad trip and still ran 2nd at today's level and distance......keep on eye on the gelding in the warm-up and loading if you can

9  Nearly Was Mine   different animal since Cassidy added the blinkers.....will need a clever ride from the outside post

6  Our Merv   1st 3 lifetime races fit solidly.....last 2 don't.....but this is 2nd out after the layoff and Mitchell is the conditioner.......not impossible to make a major form reversal

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Posted on August 15, 2012 at 10:36 am by richs · Permalink
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