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Del Mar for Thursday 23 August 2012

3rd decent Del Mar card in a row. In the last 14 races at Dmr our top pick has won 6, 2nd pick 3, 3rd pick 2, and 4th pick won the other 3 races. Many of those winners paid handsomely. Hope to keep the ball rolling along.

Don't forget about signing up for Saratoga's Travers Day full card selections. 13 races in all and 8 or more entries in every race. Yikes. I best start studying!

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race 1    average clarity

4  Almost A Lady   very dangerous early speed if she takes to the turf.......good trainer and a seemingly adequate grass pedigree.......off since Feb but won by 9 in maiden debut so being fresh looks good.....wire to wire city

7  Miss Reditore   two best lifetime races were the only 2 races that this filly ran off of short rest.....19 days off since last qualifies as "short rest"

1  Miss Becca   outside of being compromised by tossing a shoe this mare has fired every out until she tossed a clunker in her last......gets needed time to set things right......likely to rebound today

3  Roll Your Eyes   toss out her 2 grass races.......might not have liked running long and/or blinkers off.......good sprinter on the main track tries the grass again this time with the blinkers on and in a sprint......smart observance and placement 1st after the claim by Bonde

 

race 2    average clarity

2  Big Business   claimed by Miller and he wisely sends this gelding long........better animal at a distance (on the AW only) and that is somewhat hidden by multiple weak trips at a route.......also a low % jock was aboard in those AW route races........Gomez (8 for 19) for Miller up today 

7  God Of War   claimed by Morey (29% 1st after a claim last 200 claims) off of an 8 length maiden breaking romp in last........even at today's loftier level the effort is 2 or 3 lengths better than par.......... if his new conditioner gets the same run out of this gelding this fellow can make it 2 for 2 on the Dmr AW 

5  Power Series   another claim in last and it also appears to be a decent one.......last two races fit and few reasons not to believe that Canani can't get another similar effort out of this 5 year old

1  Visionary Man   on the right end of the learning curve.......and the blinkers on in last sure helped him in his latest both pace and final time wise.......very dangerous improving sort

 

race 3    slightly above average clarity

4  Rhodium    exits a fast heat in his MSW debut where he was only beat by 3 1/2 lengths.........in for Mdn 80K and why not as he went for 65K in an April sale........Peter Miller has had a stellar meeting and it appears to me that he wants to win the training title at Del Mar

7  Carving   Baffert 1ster was bought in May so he pretty much knew what he was getting....55K purchase in for mdn 80K makes sense........yet another Bob B. dangerous 1st timer

5  Zippingaroundtown   works suggest this 1ster is also ready for his debut.......mom tossed one starter and that starter won a Stakes race

6  El Sabios   beat 4 horses and lost to 4 horses in his MSW debut last..........just shy of 40 to 1 in that race so I doubt he was fully fit......should be today........expect more today......not too sure how much more

 

race 4    average clarity

7  Missdealornodeal    very dangerous if brings his "A game"......par or better in more than 50% of his grass races considering today's nw2 allowance level.....Krigger has ridden this mare well in the past

2  Sizzling Gold   been in an every other mode and this mare is on the positive side of the pendulum  swing today..........and we get a rider change from a jock having a disappointing meet to one who has turned a few heads

4  All On The Table   consistent sort is a little shy fig wise but he is usually a smooth runner and that can go a long way in finding the way to the lead at the finish line

3  Sean S   since Litt claimed this filly she impressively owns 4 wins and a 2nd (missing by a nose for the win) in 5 starts.....3 reassuring drills since her last.......solid likelihood Joshua Litt keeps the ball rolling today

 

race 5    average clarity

7  Celestic Night   solid number in last despite an ugly trip running long.......claimed by Carava and he runs him right back for only 2K more.......slightly concerned that Carava elects to run him in a sprint instead of a route but he has sprinted well as recently as last winter albeit on the grass

8  Trumpet Player Jay   in good form.......ignore last as this gelding doesn't appear to care for route racing these days.....back to a sprint today..........should put him back in the mix for the win

4  Arabian Storm   was 5 for 8 on conventional dirt when he arrived at Dmr.......won his race on the Dmr synthetic by daylight....also won his only lifetime race at 6 1/2 by daylight at Tup.....claimed by Palma who is stout 1st outing after a claim........seemingly plenty to like here

5  Bronze Fox   like our 3rd pick this one also scored at Dmr in his 1st ever on a AW surface........and like our 3rd pick he has been awfully consistent throughout his career

Long-shot Possibilities:    12  Classy Lion   last looks like a needed race off of the long hiatus from the track.........4 year old gelding is 3 for 5 at the distance and 0 for 12 at other distances.......yikes.......jock has been getting the most out many horses going off at lofty prices

 

race 6    average clarity

3  Likealovesong   just bought in May for 60K so running for 50K in her 1st out makes sense to me.......Baffert sends out yet another baby most likely ready at 1st asking

5  No Commitments   beat half the field at today's maiden claiming level in his debut last at 29 to 1.....works since strongly suggest she benefited from the learning experience and the physicality of being involved in a race.....more seems likely this afternoon

7  Jesse's Giacomo   assistant trainer takes over for suspended O'Neill which should help boost the odds........this filly was an inexpensive purchase......but the a.m. work seems good and makes her interesting and not impossible in her debut

8  Grey Tapit   last sure looks like the MSW tune-up to drop into mid priced maiden claiming and go go go go

Long-shot Possibilities:    2  Glo's Spirit   (NOTE 5 to 1 in the morning line seems way too low. I need 14 to 1 0r higher to consider using).........exits an extremely fast heat where losing by 14+ lengths wasn't that bad especially considering she dropping into much softer today........ice cold jock sure could use something good to happen

 

race 7    average clarity

7  Liberian Freighter    gelding is 7 years old and he has only won $22K this year so the drop to 62.5K claiming makes sense to me.....and if this horse is still in good health  he should be awfully tough versus these

6  Leaving New York    has only recently switched to the turf and the new surface seems to have woken this gelding up......race 2 back is very strong and matches up with our top pick......blinkers off today most likely with the intent of slowing this gelding down in the early stages 

5  Causeithehertz   steadily has gotten better one small step at a time.....and now we get a jockey upgrade.....fits if he runs his best and he seems poised for that to happen today

2  Massone   best race in 2012 and maybe best ever was the only time Nakatani rode this horse...........but he definitely likes to hang (35 2 8 11)

 

race 8    slightly above average clarity

9  In High Regards   1st time for Don Warren and this maiden claimer is training sharply......race lacks speed and he has some and that is somewhat hidden.....and P Val even at his advanced age is at outstanding front running jock

12  Bev N Bud   all four lifetime races on the AW are better than par when you adjust for trip trouble.....race 2 back is especially strong

5  Quick Save   showed good route speed in a much improved effort in 2nd lifetime start........his route speed might be good enough to sit on or near the lead in this early speed lacking sprint

11  Belligio Road   bad trip in last hides a run that looks better than appears in print........and takes that ever dangerous drop out of MSW racing

8  Omar

1  Destino

 

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Posted on August 23, 2012 at 10:01 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information