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Del Mar for Thursday 30 August 2012

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Decent looking line-up today and also Saturday. Let's hope that things settle down some as far as too many ridiculous long-shots winning that frankly weren't and still aren't on my radar even after taking another look after they won. Most of the time when a bomber wins you I can look back and find a few small reasons why they won. Not the case lately. Must be the tide.

 

race 1    average clarity

3  Idontrollonshabbos   just keeps getting better......and better.....and better.....and last shot to run at Dmr most likely till 2013......2 for 2 at Del Mar

5  Bwana Be Gone   either this 3 year old of Mitchell's totally bombed out in his layoff last or it was only a tune-up to drop and be at full throttle 2nd out after a long hiatus from the track......works since his layoff last are good hinting the 2nd scenario is more likely.....say 60/40

6 Tribal Dreams   competitive in all 6 lifetime starts and is 3 for 3 when loose on the lead........decent shot to get loose here especially with a switch in riders to a very good jock leaving from the metal monster

4  The Bien's Gift   not much long so I think you can toss out last which obviously isn't good......best of 63 bullet 4F drill since......not impossible if he was always pointed to this race

 

race 2    average clarity

7  Londinium    both lifetime races were void of much pace which hurt this off pace runner's chances......drops out of MSW today and Mr. Miller is stellar MSW to maiden claiming especially this summer

8  Bubba Fizz   13 to 1 in maiden debut for a Mitchell 1st timer in a 7 horse field strongly suggests the race was needed and that quite a bit more can be expected today

3  One Firm Call    Miller 1st timer seems somewhat ready at 1st asking when evaluating his work regiment.....and mom has tossed 5 winners from 5 starters a couple of which won at 2

9  Disarm   debut at LS was good but his run for Mc50K at Dmr was poor....Sadler claimed him in the race and has put 4 works into this Tx bred since in hopes of turning him around.....50K Texas bred .....yikes 

 

race 3    slightly above average clarity

4  Pink Blanket   ultra fast speed horse sure fell in love with the Dmr surface in last and I thinks normally he would step up in class higher higher than he is if it wasn't for Dmr ending next Weds.........wire to wire city again

1  Tiz A Route    personal heart breaker in last for yours truly as it was worth a small fortune to me if he had won.......horrid trip mostly because the starter sprung the gate when the horse's head was badly turned and only lost by 1/2 of a horse......ouch......see you jock....new rider in P Val......a solid upgrade

6  Lanida  promising filly was pounded at the windows in alw layoff run in last and ran up the track.......alarming drop into 25K claiming here....health obviously an issue.....toss a coin

7  Budidinha   most of her career fits at this level but she has two obstacles to overcome.......1st ever on an AW surface......and likes to hang in the stretch

 

race 4    average clarity

9  Nifty Dream   seemingly took to her 1st ever run over the Dmr surface because she improved quite a bit both in terms of final time and internal fractions......all out today most likely with Dmr closing next week

4  Comical Kitty   3 year old filly exits the same fast for the level heat as our top pick........0 for 51 apprentice did manage to ride this filly well and if she and he repeat their performances they can both wind up in the Dmr winners circle for the first time

7  Allura   ships in from Bel after 3 mediocre grass races.......but sure is training as if the Dmr synthetic and/or her new trainer Hendricks is to her liking......another jock looking for his 1st win of the meet in Vergara

11  Barely Been Kissed   1ster seems ready as the works are tightly spaced and awfully good considering this is a bottom level mc........at least her jock Brice Blanc has a win.......1 for 32

 

race 5    slightly above average clarity

2  This Means War   4 solid races in 4 lifetime starts on the AW......good post for 1st ever on the grass and 1st ever running 2 turns........likely to sit near the front in a race that seemingly sets up for those close up in the early to mid stages.....not to concerned about the grass or the distance as this filly is nicely bred to handle both

6  Distant Image   very good history on firm turf and it showed in her 1st ever race in S Cal the home of firm turf....don't bother looking at the weather forecast because it just doesn't rain ever on the Del Mar party track

5  Zanbo   improving with every start in 2012 and is training as if the trend will stay intact this afternoon

8  Roses For Joni   negative side: figure wise she doesn't match up that well  positive side: she has been competitive in 6 straight grass races and gets 1st time Bejarano

 

race 6    average clarity

2  Luz Atticus   awfully good work tab for a state-bred mc 1ster so I am ignoring the low % that Machowsky owns over the last few years with first timers

7  Our Trooper   horrid trip in last hides a major forward move.....drops back into maiden claiming with a very positive rider change

5  Talk The Walk   you can "ditto" our top pick's comments for this McCarthy 1ster 

3  Mine Fever   Miller claimed this Hollendorfer runner and will most likely need to get a little more out of this gelding to win this affair......blinkers on in hopes that will bring more from this 3rd time starter 

 

race 7    slightly below average clarity

2  Broken Glass   4 year old gelding has run well 3 of 4 times when on or near the lead......I've always like Gryder in route races when he sits on or close to the front and he should be able to here

6  Panettone   pounded at the windows in latest most likely because of a bad trip 2nd place finish in prior race......then had a bad trip again to be off the board ......Gomez rode in that race and he gets (wants) the mount back for new trainer Becerra off of the a claim......outstanding rider will be out to smooth things out this time around

3  Sidepocket Lou   history on AW weather tracks is significantly better than his history on conventional dirt tracks....so I would imagine Don Warren pull out all stops to have this consistent late runner fire a good race.......0nly 5 days of Dmr racing left till July 2013

9  Meadow Road   hanger and then some here but......lone time he was loose on the lead he wired easily......nothing to hang on in front of him.....so my guess is Pedroza will send this sprinter attempting two turns for this 1st time to the front......dangerous proposition here if here gets it

 

race 8    slightly above average clarity

6  Polytechnicien   love all the works on the grass course at Dmr for this Euro invader.......knows the course as well as many in here who have a multiple races on it......has run awfully well in Grade 2 & 3's in France....that fits well here as do the next two choices

1  Lucky Primo   all 4 grass races run by this 6 year old since Josh Litt took over the training duties fit well here.....highly likely to fire another solid effort as Litt makes the most out of limited starts most every year

7  Red Sun   hard to argue with 4 wins & 2 3rds in 6 lifetime grass starts.......has beaten some top notch runners including Amazombie.......off 1 year but is well proven fresh.......very hard to split top 3in marathon affairs in the Big Apple choices

2  Grassy   Marty Jones takes over this laid up Clement 6 year old who might be using this 1 1/16 mile grass race as a tune-up as he is multiple Grade 2 winner in marathons on the sod and in general appears to be a marathon specialist

 

race 9    average clarity

1  Sedona Ridge    good improvement in behavior in latest 1st time with the blinkers on.....toss out "ease" in prior race as this gelding acted up badly warming up.....race 2 back was a nice shocking 2nd at 75 t0 1......fits well here with here with a decent trip and the energy displayed in last or 3 races back

6  Buds Pal   showed he can compete at this level in sprints in his last 2 races....now he must do running a route of ground for the very 1st time......good pedigree to handle the transition

9  Outta Splash   wide trip in last or might have graduated on the 26th of July.....it was his lifetime best and it was the only time this gelding has run a route on the synthetic...trainer wisely puts him in a route again

12  AE   Anabaa Premium   should be tough on the drop down in mc price if he draws in from the AE list

2  Warren's Cole  

8  Indicator

4  T. K. Fortysix

 

 

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