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Hollywood for Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, 22 November 2012


 Happy Thanksgiving!

Take note that the last race day (Sunday) was outside and off pace making for crazy results and large payoffs. The cushion at Hollywood  tends to go outside (about 75% of the time since it was put down) after it takes moisture as it did on Saturday. Believe the track will be back to a nice even surface this afternoon. Best of luck as usual!


race 1   average clarity  

4 of the 5 entered trained by Baffert  -  Miller says "yikes!"

2  Shakin It Up    more impressive than the 5 horse when both debuted on 20 Oct......and moved forward since then.....proven at the somewhat specialty sprint distance of seven furlongs

5  Super Ninety Nine   solid win at first asking on the aforementioned 20 Oct. race......3 works in ten days to finish work series in preparation for today......out of the norm for Baffert and I like "out of the norm" practices especially for stout trainers

4  Really Mr Greeley   good forward move win in last somewhat disguised by getting  caught a touch wide pressing a solid pace....fits as well as any in here if she manages another move in the right direction


race 2    slightly above average clarity

8  Missdang Sally   quite an improvement in latest breaking a bit tardy and getting caught 4 wide and still managing a close since are extremely strong for someone like Art Sherman especially considering the race level

7  Lady Comic   5 wide in maiden claiming debut hides a decent run and then in 2nd lifetime start the connections stepped this filly up into MSW racing.........filly had to check (and lost stride) 15 to 20 lengths in the early stages.....lost by 18.....back in maiden claiming today with a good work series

5  Madelineispickin   Brian Koriner has dismal stats with maiden claiming 1sters but the works for this filly are too good to be ignored....sure seems ready......might break the mold here

3  Party In Excess   solid move forward in 2nd lifetime start......race was off 16 days rest......question is can she do similar off of a 83 day hiatus from the track


race 3    slightly below average clarity

6  Solar Eclipse    sharp forward move albeit on the grass in latest......trainer is solid stat wise 1st time at a route which is the case this afternoon......and the breeding for this filly suggests she will appreciate going long.....jock upgrade too

2  Scooter Bird   bet to 3 to 5 in MSW debut and disappointed........very impressive work series since......owns some early speed.....should be prominent from the get go.....might not disappoint this afternoon

3  Miss Derek   needs her solid race 2 back......bred fine to get a route of since mid September but works say ready fresh off of the bench today


race 4    average clarity

4  Blushing Martha   consistent sort gets a significant jockey upgrade especially for the grass.....good history when put up for a tag like today.....mid pack runner seemingly gets ample speed up front to flatter her late run

5  Catienus Gold   good 1st ever on the grass in latest somewhat disguised by being caught too wide close to solid pace.......back to a stout jock/trainer combo who produced an impressive  win two back at Fpx

6  Song Girl   Midwest shipper just flashed a strong 5/8ths bullet drill best of 44 at Hollywood on the main track......seems very sharp for 1st ever on the sod.....pedigree is solid to handle the green stuff

2  Love Tale   GB invader most likely needed his layoff sprint run 2 back......failed long in last but didn't run too hot long in GB either.....back to a sprint this time with no fitness effort is a possibility today at a turf distance she is (5 2 2 0) at overseas


race 5    average clarity

5  The Bien's Gift   just fired best ever on conventional dirt in last 1st time as a gelding.......and has been a better horse on the lifetime effort has a shot to occur today back on the AW

1  Beau Royale   3 solid races in last 4 starts and in the weak effort (two back) this gelding was quite washy and broke thru the gate prior to the start....easy to toss that race out

4  Mr. Why Why   moved forward about 3 or 4 lengths with the addition of blinkers in latest........fits solidly if builds on the effort this afternoon

3  Idontrollonshabbos   dropped and fell off of form some in last and drops again.....not the best of signs.....but....... fits just fine if the gelding makes a rebound of sorts today


race 6    average clarity

3  Byrony   2 for 2 on the Hollywood grass course (2 for 16 on the grass elsewhere) and both of those wins came with today's jock aboard......last 2 efforts at today's distance are arguably her two best lifetime efforts so far

4  So Belle   good efforts 2nd back off of layoffs and that is the case today....last which was off a 10 month layoff might have been nothing more than a public work-out

2  Imperialistic Diva   last two turf victories came the last two times this filly was placed in an allowance affair......also she seems to appreciate the Hol grass course the most


race 7    average clarity

8  You Can Dream   trainer is not too hot off of layoffs but the works are impressive and the trainer is awfully reliable when he works a horse well.....mare has won the last two times she was put up for a tag ....16K then 20K........ in for 25K today....all systems go on turkey/football day

4  Church Avenue   passed on running at Fpx and SA most likely because she loves the Hollywood synthetic (9 5 2 0).....pointed horses especially from a good conditioner like Ellis are dangerous horses

2  Melanistic   trainer has been red hot the last 3 or 4 months......can't leave this (6 for 11) mare out with that in mind even though she didn't fair too well at today's level in last

3  Roar Baby Roar   easily does her best running with Bejarano on her back.......impressive tightly spaced work series put in since last ran on 14 October.....back versus state-breds


race 8    slightly above average clarity

7  You Know I Know   very solid efforts/figs in 3 of last 5 races and the 2 races that didn't produce much fig wise were compromised by a lack of pace up front......and.....the a.m. work strongly suggests she is in good order for today's race

3  Trucial State   trainer is stout with blinkers off which is the case for this colt today......toss out last as he was way  too washed out.....toss out previous as it was on the AW.....race 3 back sat way too far back off of race 4 back........not washy and pace to close into and popped a strong number

8  A Toast To You   very consistent runner on the grass especially at Hollywood where this colt is 2 for 2

4  Smoken Legacy   jockey upgrade as Pedroza is in a slump of late for this 3 year old who has vastly improved since Machowsky took over the training duties in mid summer.....shot to win this with a reasonably good trip


race 9    average clarity

11  Warrior James   exits a fast heat of MSW runners at Fpx.......1st time in maiden claiming today and historically that has been a good thing for trainer Marty Jones

10  Mentalize   Sadler wins at a very high % with his 2 year old maiden claimers 1st timers and this 1ster sure seems to be working up to snuff for his debut.....plenty of foundation put in

8  Bay Gambler   nice move forward in 2nd lifetime start somewhat hidden by 3 different points of trouble........very formidable this afternoon with a cleaner trip and a small forward move in his 3rd lifetime start

5  Sacred Ovation   not much in last two races including the race declared no contest where he wasn't exactly running like a odds on fave when the runners had to pull up for a horse running the wrong way......and he did disappoint in his last....not for us as he was not one of our 3 picks at 1 to 1 in a six horse field.....with all that negativity there still is a shot he rebounds enough to his race 3 back which would take much lower claiming race

4  Gaul   1st timer with decent drills     mom has tossed 6 winners from 7 starters

12  I'll Run The Show   LA successful team of Treece/Guce try there luck at the big time with a 1ster training fairly well at LA





Posted on November 22, 2012 at 6:51 am by richs · Permalink
In: Free Information