Del Mar for Thursday 27 November 2014
Happy Thanksgiving!
Best of luck as always
race 1 Â Â above average clarity
3 Â May B Â four year old gelding (who crushed his competitors by 8L at Pid in his mc debut) was picked up by a quite capable new trainer in Michael McCarthy.........his new gelding showed plenty of early speed and a popped a good final time fig.........away since June but training as if he is ready to roll just as he was in his maiden debut
4  U S Citizen  faced better in his last two races and ran 2nd and 3rd in those two races........two sharp reassuring drills since his last at Bsr.......highly likely to be a major player with one caveat.......that being his tendency to hang in the stretchÂ
2  Watch It Buster  Mike Puype is hot right now.......just about everything he has been putting on the track is running better than they appear in print.......and this three year old gelding's best was his lone start on the Dmr AW........last shot to run on it's synthetic surface
race 2 Â Â average clarity
1  Xoxo  speed of the speed here and blinkers on for today won't exactly slow him up any.........sharp in the a.m.........wired from the one post at Lrc so the one hole doesn't concern me much
4  Windy Forecast  solid MSW win in last and it was at today's 5 1/2 furling distance.......good enough to be par for today's higher level.........race 3 back at Dmr is also strong..........needs to avoid a speed duel with our top pickÂ
3  Racing for Green  short on figs/ability but she is consistent and she is a closer in a field of early speed horses.....that makes her dangerous
6Â Stealth Drone
race 3 Â Â average clarity
5  Burning  best at Del Mar so he best get it done (graduate) today as the Del Mar synthetic will be a thing of the past after Sunday........all four races run at Dmr fit solidly here
6  Armensky  trainer/rider combo are 3 for 3 over the last couple of months........nowhere on the dirt at SA in latest but his debut 2 back is a par like effort........very nice work regiment since his last which I doubt took much out of him as he never ran a step on the conventional dirt at SA
1  A Black Tie Crypto   moved forward in 2nd lifetime start..........will need another move in the right direction today.........1st going a route of ground but sure has a pedigree that should handle one
4 Â Willard E
Long-shot consideration:  10  Staffenberg   1st time running as a gelding today.........best ever came a Dmr in a race at today's distance and it was off of 49 days rest.......running off of 53 days rest here........rider upgrade......dangerous and likely at a price
race 4 Â Â below average clarity
NOTE:Â AE's 13 & 14 fit and have a shot if either draw into the race
8  High Profit  broke slowly and then rushed........showed some early gas and life.......drops.........D'Amato is a dangerous trainer with dropping maiden 2nd timers......and.........lone drill at Dmr hints this filly likes the surface
7  Scatajawea  trainer is red hot and the maiden debut for this filly wasn't bad.......she drops a little and her work since her debut is improved indicates the race did her some good
1  Albany Candy  drills for this Hess 1st timer are sharpening when it counts the most......as in right before her debut......might be ready to roll
4 Â Peaches N' Brandy
race 5 Â Â below average clarity
9  Odisseia  consistently ran well overseas including four strong efforts versus the boys.......nice forward move in her latest (and disguised by a wide trip) which was her 1st start in the USA.........hasn't missed a beat in the a.m. since..........seems ready for even better today....and better with a good trip would be tough here
5  Royal Temptress  two for two lifetime on the grass including an effort in last that is par like for today's alw level.........red hot trainer in Puype........decent post and a Hall of Fame rider..........such a deal
2  Blingismything   very strong off pace runner just won a sprint down the SA hill grass course off of a 3 month break setting her up well for today's 1 1/16th turf race.........four year old filly has been impressive down the lane in all four lifetime races and I doubt that changes today
7Â Colonel Joan
Long-shot consideration:  1 Star Field  consistent hard trying efforts in all 5 lifetime grass route races......toss out her last as she isn't much in sprints......nice series of 6F drills since seemingly to build her endurance........good post and rider to pull an upset
race 6 Â Â average clarity
3  Alfa Bird  all three lifetime races are better than par foe the MSW level.......1st at a route but owns a pedigree that you would think should handle one.........and his trainer V Garcia is 6 for his last 19 1st at a route with a given horse
6  Nowalking  only race on the Del Mar AW is a par like effort for today's level.........last at SA was decent as well........and the switch to Bejarnoo seems significant as the trainer/rider are 2 for 3 over the last couple of months and the other hit the board.......impressive 6F preparatory drill just 6 days ago......seems poised for a strong run
8  Little Curlin  competitive in all four lifetime starts which were all sprints........1st ever going a route of ground and that should be a major plus with parents the Little Curlin has...........good rider/trainer combo in Trujillo/Hollendorfer
5 Â Arlington House
race 7 Â Â average clarity
3  Finnegans Wake  last two efforts fit well here and his latest was significant in that it was at today's 1 1/2 distance in the B C Turf........4 lbs less to carry here and a switch to Victor Espinosa.........and Espinoza is one for one on this fellow which was  the lone win in two years for this five year old.......hot trainer/rider combo as well
11  The Pizza Man  talented marathon runner ships into town and the only time the trainer/rider/owner shipped into S Cal it produced an impressive upset win in the B C Sprint.......I will personally be rooting for this fellow as I am friends with the jockey's agent Doug Bredar who has held many high level jobs in the racing industry including Director of Racing and Racing Secretary at Churchill Downs........jockey Florent Geroux and Bredar are starting to make waves in the industry and likely will be a force Nationally in a few years.......the young man can ride and Doug is hard working and knows the game inside out including as a handicapper
2  Holiday Star    steadily developing horse especially since switching to marathon races.........and he appears at his very best on very firm turf........welcome to sunny San Diego .......trainer Graham Motion is as good as it gets.......sure would be nice if some owner enticed him ($$$$$$$$$) to bring his operation to S Cal
6 Â Irish Surf Â
Long-shot consideration:  8  Bench Light  lifetime two best races are the only two times this gelding ran as far as 1 3/8ths on the grass......so 1st attempt running as far as 1 1/2 on the grass might be even better.....and if it is this Pender runner has a shot to upset the apple cart here
race 8 Â Â below average clarity (very difficult race)
2  Pat the Bear  last two drills at Bsr are quite strong and hint this Mora runner is meant and ready for his debut........and mom has tossed 4 winners from 4 starters........colt went for $50K at sale so starting his career for maiden 62.5K doesn't bother me much
10  Dream Police  earned a check of 4 of 5 lifetime races all of which were in MSW affairs.....so drop into high priced maiden claining makes sense and should make this Baltas runner a major player here......only race at Del Mar isn't as bad as appears in print
12  Sky Heart  1st time wearing blinkers and improved work-outs......just what you what to see for this Sadler two year old colt who only needs a couple of lengths of "more horse" to be a major factor in this race
7 Â Pocketball
6 Â Thunder Thief
8 Â Woody's Folly