Del Mar for Friday 6 November 2015
Seems like a decent card for today. Let's call it 7 on the 1 to 10 scale.
Best of luck as always!
race 1 Â above average clarity
3  Riri  impressive MSW debut running 3 wide down the SA hill in good time and winning by 3 lengths........that effort is better than par for today's higher level.......1st at a turf route but she is bred exceptionally well to handle the transition
4  Optimism And Hope  double barrel action for D'Amato as he also trains our top choice.........filly has been facing better and made a nice forward move in her latest......should be closing late attempting to get to her barn mate who should be forwardly placed
1  Magnolias  strong grass sprint MSW debut at Bel in June......returned in a dirt race (that seemed odd so maybe just a tune-up) and did little........back to the surface where she is proven.....OK route pedigree but nearly as good a pedigree for distance as our top two choices
race 2 Â Â average clarity
2  Rock N Bunny  last on the grass looked like a public work-out to come back in very short rest and drop to a level she should handle.....trainer is 22% turf to dirt with his last 3 dozen
5  Really a Princess  owns good speed and seemingly only has to cope with the early speed of the 1 horse who has drawn a tough post
8  Tatum's Gold  trainer/rider were a good team up north.....gets in nice and light entering for 14K (2 lbs) and with the 5 lbs apprentice alw....... effort 4 back run at Dmr would make her very tough
7  Zuzu's Petals   has some physical problems (vet scr. 12 oct & today drops).....but....turf tightener in last.......fits if the turf was kind to her and she feels OK for today's race
race 3 Â Â average clarity
7  Aren Vaughn  very solid works for the given level for this Baltas 1st timer.......and he lures Bejarano to ride......and those who have run don't appear too tough
3  A New Trend   MSW debut = route turf exercise.......then.......trapped on a dull rail in strong pace at SA in a 6 1/2 furlong dirt affair = no shot to preform.......drop helps and especially with the early foot he possesses.......gate to wire attempt
4  Gavination  not exactly a killer rider/trainer combo with a 1ster.......but......the works are too solid to ignore......especailly his last two gate works
2  Silver Summer  fell apart at 6F in latest with a soft half blowing a 2 1/2 length lead......doubt that will do at 6 1/2 furlongs unless I am wrong about my assessment of the two 1sters
race 4Â Â above average clarity
6  Avanti Bello  giant effort in latest 1st out following the claim......outer post veer of one length at the start........wide throughout up on the pace.......five lengths for wide......three lengths for pace.........9L of Santucci fig adjustment.......worried some about the colt regressing........but even if he gives 4 or 5 lengths less of effort today ....he still fits
1  City State  another coming off a hidden effort in last but not nearly as disguised.........dueled on a slightly dull inside and faded to 3rd.......like the step out of claiming hinting he is feeling good......1 for 1 at Dmr.......has a shot unless our top pick brings his last and with an OK trip
2  Storm Comin Thru  consistent sort retains Bejarano but he will need his lifetime best today to have a shot here unless things go bad for our top two picks one way or another
7  Roman Tizzy  small shot if he can find his effort 3 back which was at Del Mar .......recent 4F drill (and for a new trainer in Cerin) hints he might
race 5 Â Â average clarity
3  Blondy's Reward  seems likely to get a nice ground saving mid pack or stalking trip behind some suspect front-runners .........and with a significant rider upgrade especially for the turf
8  Mia's Storm   improved since the blinkers were put on two back and both efforts are disguised by races where this filly lacked room.......hasn't been let out being blocked and all so likely has something left in the tank for today.....T C Baze will be out to make amends
6  Cuddle Alert  last on the dirt fits and she obviously showed good dirt route speed.....but.....I'm not too crazy about her pedigree to run as well on the sod.......rated too low if I'm wrong about that
7 Traiteuse  race two back might do the trick.....last definitely does not........recent works hint at a rebound.....we shall see
Long-shot consideration:   9 Hankypank Girl  blinkers off likely to have this filly to sit far back......and when she has run from well out of it (as in dead last at the 1st call) she has run her best i.e. 8 Aug and 3 May of 2015
race 6 Â Â average clarity
7  Kronwall  very hidden solid move forward in 2nd lifetime race.......dueled in decent pace on a rather dead inside.....impressive to only get beat by 4L......very strong 5/8ths drill since......same or better effort seem likely today for very reliable connections these days
4  Lucky Reality  all three lifetime sprints races for today's mc20K level are better than par......trainer and bug boy were solid as a combo up north
1  Xerxes  highly doubt a winner......flashes of some ability but not enough to play on top
5  Extra Lucky  best of what is left and that's not saying much
race 7 Â Â average clarity
10  Horizontalyspeakin  love when a one-dimensional speed type learns to run from off of it.....sharp claim by Baltas and he sure has his new shooter training as though a top effort is forthcoming this afternoon
4  Poshsky  appreciates the Dmr grass course and appears very sharp right now.....I am slightly  concerned about the 1 1/8th distance.......as he has a little something to prove holding it together past  1 1/16th
3  Jules Journey  best at today's distance (7 1 2 4) and blinkers on seems like a smart idea as he tends to hang some in the stretch ..........and maybe blinkers on and the focus it might bring will rid him of the habit
7  Husband's Folly  2 for 6 at today's turf distance (and 2 3rd's as well) .........1 for 22 at other turf distances.......and he fired a strong effort in last which is disguised by a wide trip-a-roooo....dangerous
race 8 Â Â average clarity
3  Makena  solid MSW debut way back in Jan running 3rd despite a bad trip down the SA hill grass course......training awfully well for her return to the races wars and 1st on the dirt......and her pedigree to handle dirt is good
7  Dyna Star  away one week longer than our top selection....also working as though she will fire fresh......and.......2 of her 3 lifetime dirt races fit well
1  Silver Score  shocking 40 to 1 awakening in last.......but 3 months off since......works hint (as does Smith taking the mount) that this filly might repeat her last which might be good enough to win this affair
6  Miss Bliss  another with a big wake-up in latest.....good drills since......not out of this by any means
2  Secret Chords  another coming off of a long layoff who fired a strong race in her debut......not impossible but doesn't exactly return with a big name trainer
5  My Rose  so so MSW debut but Bejarano sticks with the filly and Bejarano riding for D'Amato is one dangerous team